On 18 January, a Kenyan aircraft delivered Jubaland President Ahmed Islam Madoobe from Kismaayo to Nairobi to allow him to travel to the UAE on health grounds. Defying a federal aviation ban imposed on Kismaayo, the private Kenyan plane did not seek clearance from Mogadishu's Traffic Control Centre and switched off its transponders when it crossed into Somali airspace. In turn, Somalia's Foreign Ministry promptly protested, terming it a breach of its airspace and sovereignty, summoning the Kenyan ambassador and threatening to recall its own representative in Nairobi. The flight has now tipped delicate bilateral relations between the neighbours into a tailspin.
At the beginning of January, reports emerged that Villa Somalia had granted a foreign businessman named Abu Yasir exclusive rights over Somalia's livestock exports. For an alleged USD 3 million bonus and a levy of USD 4 per head of livestock, it was agreed that the country's primary export would be handed over to a single individual.
No observer of the latest round of civil war in Sudan expected a quiet festive period. Millions of Sudanese civilians knew perfectly well that they would spend New Year's Eve on the run, in makeshift displacement camps or overcrowded homes away from the front lines. The comparatively lucky members of the Sudanese elite, able to take refuge in Nairobi, Cairo, one of the Gulf countries or further afield, saw 2024 change to 2025 in the knowledge of having lost family, friends, homes and much else back home in Sudan
On 8 December 2024, a coalition of Syrian rebels led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) entered Damascus, ridding the Middle Eastern country of the long-serving dictator Bashar al-Assad after over 13 years of civil war.
On 25 December 2024, skirmishes between the Isaaq and Ogaadeen communities exploded into open violence in the Dacawaley kebele in the Harshin district within Ethiopia's Somali Regional State (SRS).
Somalia's President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud (HSM) and Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed Ali met over the weekend in Addis Ababa to cement a tentative détente brokered in December by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. The new momentum towards normalisation is welcome and certainly has the potential to de-escalate the dangerous tensions that have built up in the Horn in the last year. But beyond symbolism, will it change anything on the ground?
Puntland's military operations against the Islamic State-Somalia (ISS) in the rugged Al-Miskaad mountains are now well underway. After several months of preparations in 2024, the northern Federal Member State (FMS) is deploying considerable forces as part of Operation Hilaac (Lightning) to quash the influential jihadist wing located near the port city of Bosasso.
Mediation in the Sudan war may soon become the latest theatre in which an increasingly assertive and independent Türkiye inserts itself. Fresh from its major geopolitical coup in Syria, with its allied Islamist rebel forces toppling Iranian-backed dictator Bashar al-Assad, as well as the negotiated Somalia-Ethiopia 'Ankara Declaration,' Türkiye then offered to reconcile the "differences between Sudan and the UAE" in December.
Last November, several police officers and a bulldozer arrived in the Moalim Nur neighbourhood of Mogadishu to demolish houses on public land. They likely did not anticipate the welcome they received, with clashes erupting as federal soldiers resisted the land-clearance operation. When the shooting stopped, 5 people had been killed, the bulldozer destroyed, and the soldiers arrested. It was a particularly violent episode amid the federal government's quiet campaign to auction off public land in Mogadishu, which has picked up amidst the political turmoil of the past year.
Ethiopia's education system is in dire straights. According to the latest UN report, 9 million children are currently out of school– mainly across the Tigray, Amhara, and Oromia regions– primarily as a result of recent or ongoing armed conflict. For those who remain in school across the country, the quality of education has also broadly declined, as evidenced by disastrous national exam results of recent years.
After months of sabre-rattling and insistence otherwise, the Ethiopian army appears set to officially remain in central and southern Somalia– with Mogadishu's grudging acceptance. Villa Somalia's hard deadline of 1 January 2025 for the withdrawal of the thousands of Ethiopian National Defence Force (ENDF) troops positioned across Gedo, Bay, Bakool, and Hiiraan came and went amidst ongoing disorder over the troop composition for the new African Union peacekeeping force. Where they will remain is proving contentious, however, with Villa Somalia pressuring Addis to withdraw its troops from Gedo in Jubaland, as well as Hiiraan in Hirshabelle.
The coming year is almost certain to be an exceedingly difficult one for Somalia, with the political turmoil and security deterioration of 2024 likely spilling over into 2025 with a vengeance. Driven by the centralising ambitions of the federal government, disputes over electoral models, the constitutional 'review' process, and federalism have surged this year, most recently resulting in open conflict in Ras Kamboni in Lower Juba between federal Gorgor soldiers and Jubaland troops. The widely shared perception the government has consolidated around a Damul Jadid, the Islamist faction linked to President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, and a Hawiye-Abgaal clan core has ostracised it from large parts of the population.
The past 11-and-a-half months have hardly been quiet for Ethiopia. The beginning of the year started with the bombshell Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with Somaliland, the geopolitical impact of which continues to reverberate. Insurgencies in Oromia and particularly Amhara have escalated further, compounding massive humanitarian emergencies and diminishing the government presence to a largely militarised one.
Last week, Turkey brokered a sudden accord between Somalia and Ethiopia, which many hope will, at least, reduce heightened regional tensions in the Horn. Somalia's President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud (HSM) and Ethiopian PM Abiy Ahmed Ali were invited to Ankara by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan for the third round of bilateral negotiations in 2024 but the first with both premiers. The Turkish strongman shuttled between the two and reportedly told his African allies they must not leave Erzurum, the meeting venue, without a deal.
On Wednesday morning, the dam broke in Ras Kamboni in Lower Juba as fighting erupted between federal Gorgor troops and Jubaland Daraawiish soldiers. The result was decisive, with hundreds of Somali National Army (SNA) soldiers either routed or captured in a humiliating end to Mogadishu's attempt to wrest power from Ahmed Madoobe in Jubaland. With Villa Somalia unable to remove the long-serving Federal Member State (FMS) leader either through subterfuge or force, now must be the inflexion point for the federal government.
On 12 December, Abdirahman Mohamed Abdullahi 'Irro will be sworn in as the 6th President of Somaliland, following his comfortable victory a month ago. Dignitaries and representatives from several nations are attending the buoyant festivities in Hargeisa as Somalilanders usher in another peaceful and successful transfer of power. It has been a triumphant few weeks for Somaliland, pulling off a consequential, direct vote in the face of external interference. Looking ahead to the incoming administration, having enjoyed 64% of votes cast from across Somaliland's 6 regions, 'Irro and his followers may be tempted to believe they have a robust mandate for change.
In early December, the Oromia regional government led by Shimelis Abdisa and a splinter faction of the insurgent Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) inked a peace agreement. The ceremony, attended by senior federal and regional political and military officials, was heralded as a new chapter for Oromia, while President Shimelis Abdisa urged other armed groups to follow suit and lay down their weapons.
In late November, the Puntland Maritime Police Force (PMPF) informed the European Union's anti-piracy naval force, EUNAVFOR Atalanta, that pirates may have hijacked a Chinese-owned fishing vessel off the northern coast of Somalia.
There is a palpable sense of deja vu regarding the events unfolding in Jubaland today. The latest crisis– primarily between the federal government and the administration in Kismaayo headed by Ahmed Islam Madoobe – has more than a few echoes of the events of 2013 and 2019.
In an infamous episode in July 1897, in Al-Matama on the banks of the River Nile, a number of Sudanese women tied their bodies together and threw themselves into the water to escape sexual violence from Mahdist soldiers.