Issue No. 265

Ethiopia's education system is in dire straights. According to the latest UN report, 9 million children are currently out of school– mainly across the Tigray, Amhara, and Oromia regions– primarily as a result of recent or ongoing armed conflict. For those who remain in school across the country, the quality of education has also broadly declined, as evidenced by disastrous national exam results of recent years. Educational disparities are higher today than they have been for decades-- and show every sign of worsening as state funds are pulled from schooling.

Internal conflict remains the primary cause of children being out of school, with 4.4 million in Amhara, 3.2 million in Oromia, and 1.2 million in Tigray. Armed conflict has devastated access to education across Ethiopia. The escalation of the Fano insurgency since August 2023 has caused widespread school closures in Amhara. In Oromia, the west has been hardest hit, where the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) has battled with federal and regional forces for over 5 years. The effects of these conflicts on children extend far beyond missed schooling. Many young girls have experienced sexual violence perpetrated by armed groups, while both boys and girls have been forcibly abducted into armed groups. Malnutrition and hunger are widespread as a result of the conflict, with massive gaps in international humanitarian funding for 2025 remaining. The negative impact of malnutrition on educational attainment in children has been well-documented.

Nowhere is this perhaps clearer than in Tigray. With the northern region stuck in a 'no war, no peace' limbo and economic reconstruction still limited, it is little wonder that many of its youth have sought to migrate from the region. Much of the educational infrastructure of Tigray remains in ruins despite the fighting having ceased well over two years ago. In September, armed groups still occupied hundreds of schools, according to the deputy head of the Tigray Education Bureau, in contravention of the Pretoria agreement, while just 1,835 schools were operating out of 2,492. It is the immense psycho-social impacts of the war on Tigray that are most keenly felt by the region's youth, including the lifelong consequences of the blockade-induced starvation. Many of the schools still bear the physical scars of the war-- hardly conducive to proper learning.

In the Amhara region, meanwhile, 4,870 schools are reported to be currently closed, in large part due to the still-escalating Fano insurgency. Within the region, the crisis is especially severe in Gojjam– with over 50% of those out of school located in the area's North, East, and West zones and in Central Gondar. Gojjam is one of the epicentres of the disparate insurgency and has witnessed repeated targeting of schools by government drone strikes. In early November, a series of strikes carried out in Zibst town left dozens dead, including those at an elementary school. Several Fano militias have also carried out grenade attacks on schools attended by Prosperity Party officials' children. 
The displacement of many thousands of children into underfunded, overcrowded camps in Amhara plagued by insecurity has further damaged the learning outcomes of the region. Yet the hardline, militarised policy still being pursued against the Fano insurgency continues, though it has only further driven the deep unpopularity of the government among many Amhara. 

Ethiopia's education system has historically reflected the country's political and socio-economic inequalities. Though literacy preceded the adoption of Christianity in 333 AD in the Kingdom of Aksum by King Ezana, in the succeeding centuries, it was the Ethiopian Orthodox Church that oversaw educational opportunities limited to the nobility. Up until the 20th century, education was restricted mainly to the children of the elite from the country's highlands, while peripheral communities in Oromia and elsewhere were nearly entirely overlooked. The notion of a secular education being taught not in Amharic was non-existent, with literacy rates estimated well below 50% even up until the military coup in September 1974. 

Since then, though successive administrations have nominally promised to emphasise rural education, the attainment gap between urban and pastoral areas remains. Attendant rates for the first primary school cycle, grades 1 through 4, have consistently remained above 85%, but this drastically drops off within the second cycle of grades 5 to 8. This has been particularly apparent in the more impoverished and pastoral Somali and Afar regions. And the overwhelming majority of those who did reach the end of school in their final secondary school exams last year couldn't meet the 50% proficiency pass mark required to attend university. The lingering impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic on children's education should also not be underestimated. Consequently, without accreditation and basic education, young Ethiopians are currently being further disadvantaged when joining an already hostile job market.

It was the disenfranchisement of the Amhara and Oromo in the 1990s and 2000s that partly sowed the seeds of today's conflicts. But the scale of the socio-economic catastrophes in nearly every part of the country dwarfs anything that has come before, with large parts of the country on the verge of a breakdown. With the education system collapse, the roots of further violence and conflict, as well as economic struggles, are being laid. From healthcare to schooling, the social pillars of the state have been eroded or abandoned in favour of the 'beautification' of Addis Ababa or military offensives against the Fano militias. The full extent of the innumerate social crises ongoing in Ethiopia today may not be felt for some time, but the impacts are sure to be generational.