Issue No. 803

“Bring the Ball Back to the Centre” – Clan, Politics and Consensus in Somalia 

A powerful caucus of Hawiye clan chiefs is conducting discreet talks with Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud in Mogadishu to defuse Somalia’s worsening political crisis, aggravated in recent weeks by the ongoing Al-Shabaab offensive in the Shabelle Valley and the attempted encirclement of the Somali capital, Mogadishu. The initiative is still in its infancy, the details still somewhat hazy, and there is no guarantee it will succeed, but it does certainly offer a realistic prospect of ending the escalating divisions and political stalemate in Somalia.
 
One of the most revered chiefs of the Mudulood clan family (which brings together the major Abgaal sub-clans of Wa’eysle, Agoonyar and Wa’budhan) and the chairman of the Union of the Mudulood Clans (Isbahaysiga Beelweynta Beesha Mudulood) Imam Dahir Imam Omar Imam Mohamud, according to informed sources, is the principal driver, and he is supported by other clan chiefs and businessmen from the Abgal sub-clans. The discreet political initiative is aimed to achieve three objectives: repair the widening growing rift within the Mudulood, pre-empt an intra-Abgaal conflict and promote national dialogue between HSM and his opponents to end the political deadlock over elections and constitutional changes.
 
During a series of talks with the President in Mogadishu in recent days, the Mudulood clan chiefs called on him to “bring the ball to the centre” (kubadda dhaxda ku soo celi) a metaphor associated with the game of football when the referee begins a match by placing the ball at the centre of the pitch or in some instances after a foul or at the start of extra time. In all these instances, the referee takes the ball to the centre and calls on the two teams to start the game from a level playing field. As a political metaphor and in the Somali context it means ‘levelling the playing field’ and fairness. It also has a connotation of political moderation, governing from the centre and consensus. 
 
The mere fact that HSM’s own clan is now demanding that he ‘brings back the ball to the centre’ constitutes a reprimand if not an indictment of the Somali president’s radical electoral and constitution overhaul underway since May 2023, which have deepened Somali divisions and fomented a groundswell of discontent across Somalia. The Mudulood clan chiefs’ intervention is beneficial and adds to the growing domestic and international pressure on the Somali president to change tack and reopen dialogue with opponents to address valid opposition concerns that much of Villa Somalia’s ‘reform’ agenda is intended simply to engineer another term for HSM, create a presidential system, and centralise power in Mogadishu - all without a serious national debate or consensus.
 
Sources say HSM welcomed the initiative and expressed readiness to talk with the opposition but made no firm commitments. Instead, the president flew to Middle Shabelle for a tour of the “front lines” – ostensibly to boost troop morale and to ‘engage with clan and community leaders’, according to state media. Far from signalling a shift to the political centre, HSM’s visit to an Abgaal enclave, adorned in camouflage fatigues, portrayed him more as a parochial clan warlord. Meanwhile, the ‘front line’ edged ever closer to Mogadishu, as Al-Shabaab fighters continue their advance towards the national capital.

Moreover, if HSM’s whistle stop tour of Middle Shabelle was supposed to rally Abgaal support, it may have had the opposite effect. No notable Abgaal clan leader appeared in photos of his meetings, suggesting an attempt by the president to circumvent pressure from Mudulood heavyweights like Imam Dahir by currying favour with a select group of Abgaal sub-clan chiefs. HSM may also have been trying to undercut growing support amongst his Abgaal kinsmen for former president Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed – a likely candidate in the next presidential elections.
 
Sheikh Sharif is an astute grassroots politician who commands a significant following in the Abgaal heartland of the Shabelle Valley. He is also a leading critic of HSM whose views are influential within the Mudulood clan family and carry weight at the national level. If HSM tries to impose a rigged version of one-person, one vote (OPOV) elections, or seeks a term extension, Sheikh Sharif’s followers are likely to be among the first to take up arms against him in Mogadishu.
  
HSM owes his second term in office in large part to Mudulood support and goodwill. The clan is his key primary constituency, even more important than the Dam al-Jadiid Islamist faction that managed his campaign. Sustained pressure from the clan to compromise with his opponents puts the president in a difficult spot. Defying its wishes and ignoring its counsel is tantamount to political suicide.

The Mudulood clan chiefs’ tentative overture should serve as an important reminder of where real power lies and the potent mechanism of traditional checks and balances that can kick into action in times of crises to restore balance and stability. 

“Bring the ball back to the centre” is not just a metaphor or a political slogan. It is a Somali traditional paradigm of egalitarian politics and consensus that has guided state-building since 2000. 

Hopefully HSM will understand that it means he should rise above the fray to seek accommodation and compromise with his political adversaries – not only among the Mudulood clans but also at a national level. At this time of grave crisis, the president’s place is not playing ‘igu sawiir’ at remote villages on the ‘front lines’: it is down in the trenches, fighting to protect his nation’s political middle ground.

The Somali Wire Team