Issue No. 891

President Hassan Sheikh at a Crossroads: Between Clarity and Confusion

Today's editorial in The Somali Wire is written by Abdirahman Abdishakur Warsame.

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President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud (HSM) stands at a defining crossroads, for his leadership, his legacy, and Somalia’s fragile democratic future.  Alarming signs point to a deliberate strategy to extend his mandate beyond constitutional limits. Villa Somalia has reportedly circulated the so-called “Zero Paper” among Somali political circles and international partners to test the waters and gauge reaction. The proposal, titled “Somalia’s Exceptional Reform Window: A Mandate to Complete the Constitution and Reset Governance,” calls for a two-year extension under the pretext of completing the constitution and finalizing reforms.

This move, cloaked in technocratic language, has provoked deep public unease. Beneath the rhetoric of “reform” lies a familiar motive, the desire to cling to power under the guise of institutional renewal. Such manipulation risks fracturing the already fragile trust between citizens and the state.

From Promise to Paralysis

When President Hassan returned to office in 2022, he did so with renewed public trust and international goodwill. His campaign promised two defining missions: to defeat Al-Shabaab and to confront corruption. Somali citizens and international partners initially rallied behind HSM’s stated priorities, seeing them as a chance for national renewal and personal redemption. Many hoped his second term would mark a clean break from the corruption and ineffectiveness that defined his previous administration.

His strategy appeared straightforward: rebuild credibility by restoring security and integrity, then capitalize on that momentum to entrench political control. The plan envisioned rewriting the constitution, enacting new electoral laws, and appointing a compliant electoral commission , steps that under the banner of reform, would ultimately consolidate power and reshape Somalia’s political order to his advantage. But the promise of renewal quickly gave way to paralysis.

Instead of appointing a competent, merit based cabinet, HSM surrounded himself with weak and pliant officials, a prime minister and ministers chosen for loyalty rather than ability. Power was centralized in his hands, as he micromanaged every sphere of government, from security operations to federal relations. This obsession with control suffocated institutions, silenced initiative, and crippled reform. The administration’s insecurity replaced leadership; fear of independent minds became its defining trait.

The war against Al-Shabaab lost momentum, the anti-corruption drive evaporated, and confidence in leadership collapsed. As the government weakened, it turned to the same patronage and nepotism it once condemned. Corruption became systemic.

Public land and state assets were sold at undervalued prices, draining national resources and destabilizing the economy. In Somalia, land is not merely property — it is collateral, savings, and the backbone of investment. By devaluing it, the government has choked access to credit, frozen business activity, and deepened economic despair. Meanwhile, rising taxes and arbitrary fees have turned ministries into center’s of extraction rather than service.

This is not reform, it is regression. It is the slow transformation of the state from a public institution into a marketplace for rent and privilege.

A Nation on Pause

With only months remaining in his term, President Hassan now presides over a government adrift and a public losing faith. Surrounded by advisers who shield him from reality, he mistakes control for competence and defiance for strength.

The much-publicised three-tier electoral model, once promoted as reform, has lost credibility and is now viewed as a political tool to justify extension. Reckless economic management has compounded the crisis. Investors are cautious, partners uncertain, and citizens disillusioned. Somalia today is a nation on pause, suspended between ambition and inertia.

Legitimacy, once lost, cannot be restored through extension or manipulation. It must be rebuilt through inclusion, transparency, and trust. Yet the President refuses to recalibrate, avoiding the political cost of acknowledging failure. Leadership requires humility, not denial.

If this course continues, the opposition will have no choice but to mobilize citizens and defend the constitutional order through peaceful and lawful means. Somalia cannot endure another cycle of deception and instability. The public’s patience is not infinite, and the state’s fragility cannot bear another assault from within.

Despite exhaustion from decades of crisis, Somalis still believe in one enduring principle: that power must change hands peacefully through the ballot, not through bargains or backroom deals. Their hope lies in renewal — in new leadership capable of rescuing the nation from drift. As political uncertainty deepens, Al-Shabaab and other extremists stand ready to exploit division and disillusionment.

Legacy or the Loss of History

President Hassan Sheikh now faces a decisive moment. He must recognize that the path he pursues is unsustainable. At this crossroads, wisdom demands humility, to listen, to consult, and to act in the national interest rather than personal ambition.

He can still reclaim leadership by initiating a credible, inclusive dialogue on electoral reform , one that guides Somalia toward a legitimate, peaceful, and constitutional transition. He must abandon any thought of term extension and instead lead a genuine national consultation to design a transparent electoral framework, one stronger and fairer than the 2020 model, and a vital step toward one-person, one-vote democracy.

The choice before him is stark: legitimacy or the loss of history. History does not forgive those who mistake power for purpose, but it honors those who place country above self.

HSM still has the chance to rise above confusion, restore integrity to public office, and leave behind a Somalia that moves forward through the ballot, not the backroom.

Abdirahman Abdishakur Warsame is a member of the Somali Federal Parliament, an opposition leader, the chairman of the Wadajir Party, and a presidential candidate in the forthcoming elections of 2026. The original piece was first published on Substack on 03 November.