Issue No. 885

The President That Never Was 

Today's editorial in The Somali Wire is written by Dr Ngala Chome.

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This morning, former Kenyan Prime Minister and veteran opposition leader Raila Odinga passed away in India at the age of 80. One of the few constants in Kenyan political life, the towering influence of Odinga-- or 'Baba' (father) to his followers-- will be best remembered as a pre-eminent political mobiliser, as well as having five failed tilts at the presidency. The outpouring of grief today has been immediate and nationwide, with crowds massing in western Kenya and Nairobi at his residences to pay tribute to Odinga. His death will be felt keenly across the African continent. 

A fierce campaigner for Kenya's democratic freedoms and a proud Pan-Africanist, Odinga served time in jail as a political prisoner in the 1980s before coming to the fore as the country's foremost opposition leader by the 21st century. But though his legacy for propelling democratic reforms in Kenya is undisputed, there are also chequered elements of his long career as well, not least the 2007-2008 post-election violence and Odinga's series of 'handshakes' with the ruling governments of the time. 

The son of Kenya's first Vice-President, Jaramogi Odinga, Baba hailed from western Kenya, where he remains a revered figure among the Luo as a man of the soil and has often been referred to as 'Tinga' (Tractor), the symbol of his party in the 1997 elections. But Raila first appeared to the public in 1982, when associated with an attempted coup against authoritarian leader and former President Daniel arap Moi. Thousands were killed and imprisoned in the bloody aftermath, with Odinga becoming Kenya's longest-serving detainee after serving 6 years between 1982 and 1988, and another two-year stretch from 1989 to 1991. As Kenya emerged from the despotism of Moi and into the age of multi-party politics, Odinga would return to the political stage in the 1990s, wielding his fierce skills as a mobiliser to become a leading opposition figure. He also served as a member of parliament for Kibera in the 1990s, advocating for the rights of the impoverished and disenfranchised. And throughout these years, Odinga tirelessly campaigned for political reform, calling for-- among other changes-- a new constitution. 

But the political violence in 2007-2008 will leave a mark on Odinga's legacy as well, with thousands killed in the contested post-election conflagration, in which critics allege the opposition leader played an inciting role, as former President Uhuru Kenyatta and incumbent President William Ruto similarly did. In the wake of the violence, Odinga would join a coalition with then-President Mwai Kibaki, serving as the country's prime minister between 2009 and 2013. And this would play out in every subsequent election, with Odinga contesting each election defeat, arguing that the victory had been rigged —and often with more than just cause, before joining the new administration. In 2017, for instance, Kenya's Supreme Court annulled the victory of Uhuru Kenyatta, declaring that fresh polls should be carried out. Odinga, however, refused to contest them, citing the need for further reforms, though he would join —again —Kenyatta's government through the ubiquitous 'handshake' pact of Kenyan politics. At each juncture, Odinga wielded his abilities as a political mobiliser and ethnic support base to pressure the incumbent government before entering into coalitions, at times drawing criticism for perceived betrayal of his origins.

After the 2022 polls, where Odinga was defeated by President Ruto, he subsequently joined the administration to form the 'broad-based government' last year. In the wake of nationwide unrest by young Kenyans protesting the government's Finance Bill, Odinga's Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) joined hands with the Ruto government. While defending the move as necessary for national unity, Odinga's final pact with the ruling party has proven perhaps the most contentious element of his legacy. A proud pan-Africanist, as part of the apparent deal between Ruto and Odinga, saw Nairobi throw support behind the latter's campaign for the African Union Commission Chairperson post this year, though he lost out on the seat to Mahamoud Ali Youssouf, the former Djiboutian foreign minister. It was a crying shame that Raila was not elected, having long championed the interests of the continent and issues like the Tigray war, while the AU and others shirked their duties to intervene.

In Kenya, meanwhile, the political reverberations of his death, as was the case during his life, are likely to be momentous. Though Odinga was elderly, his passing remains a shock across Kenya-- all will remember where they were when they heard the news. The sustained connection between the warm-hearted Odinga and his supporters is unrivalled in modern Kenyan politics, where he remains a revered figure despite his deal-making sensibilities. Such was his outsized influence that there is no clear or immediate successor to take Odinga's place as the pre-eminent opposition figure, with ODM likely to be plunged into a power struggle. 

It is difficult to dispute that, despite the chequered parts of his deal-making history, Kenya has enjoyed greater stability and democratic freedoms because of Odinga than its neighbours in the Horn of Africa. And there is perhaps no single individual who has exerted greater influence over the trajectory of the nation's post-independence politics than Odinga. Despite recent criticisms towards his twilight career, Raila Odinga's contribution to the political development of Kenya—and the continent more widely—has clinched a deserved place in the annals of history.