Mogadishu's Hollow Human Rights Victory
Another week, another 'win' for the diaphanous sovereignty of Somalia's federal government. On 8 October, the UN Human Rights Council (UNHRC) endorsed a resolution restoring Somalia's authority to manage its human rights obligations, following months of concerted lobbying by Somali diplomats. Amid a brutal land clearance campaign that has displaced tens of thousands in Mogadishu, the UNHRC has somehow deemed that now is the correct moment to conclude the UN independent human rights expert's mandate to scrutinise the dire state of affairs. And-- as if to celebrate the announcement of reclaiming 'sovereign' oversight-- two Himilo TV executives who have covered the land clearances were arbitrarily arrested in the capital, the latest in a string of concerning detentions as Villa Somalia seeks to quash any scrutiny.
The scale and depth of the human rights crisis in Somalia is difficult to overstate, with the country ranking poorly on issues from women's liberties to freedom of expression to minority rights. Decades of internecine conflict have left indelible scars on Somali society, with women and children bearing the brunt of the profound social conservatism and violence now pervasive across the country. In turn, external scrutiny from the UN and others-- though alone unable to turn the prevailing tide-- has played a role in maintaining at least a degree of pressure on the federal government and devolved administrations on such issues, even if they have only paid the merest of lip service. But now even lip service is no longer required, as the federal government assumes responsibility for domestic oversight of human rights. It has already approved a transition plan for 2025-2026, which includes the new Independent National Human Rights Commission (INHRC), likely with the intention of securing funding from a well-meaning international partner.
Yet even before the dust has settled from the Minister of Family and Human Rights Development, Khadija Mohamed Al-Makhzoumi, celebrating the "historic decision," controversy has already erupted over the INHRC. Rather than civil society or human rights experts, the commission is instead made up of career politicians and government allies, seemingly placed in the INHRC simply to dispense some patronage rather than tackle the nettlesome issue of human rights in Somalia. Opposition politicians-- including Gedo lawmaker Mursal Khaliif-- have criticised the commission, arguing that it is yet another unconstitutional body and approved in a lawmaking session "devoid of parliamentary procedures." Sovereignty, showmanship and-- above all-- resources are the languages of this government, and little else besides.
In this vein, the rights-- or lack thereof-- of internally displaced persons in Somalia have become a particular political flashpoint this year, with Villa Somalia overseeing a rapacious land clearance campaign in Mogadishu. According to a recent UN estimate, over 142,000 people have been uprooted from their homes, often with no warning, as the federal government has auctioned off vast tracts of public land. Many of those violently displaced from this disused public land, be it former schools, military bases or hospitals, hail from Somalia's most marginal and disenfranchised clans, forming a peri-urban underclass that has been exploited by the ruling elite and more dominant clans for years. Expecting the government's new commission to critique such policies of its paymasters —particularly with apparently no single minority clan commissioner —is farcical.
Among the most disenfranchised of all are the Jareer Weyne-- otherwise known as the Somali Bantu-- who are descended from the riverine farming communities from southern Somalia, predating the migration of Somali nomads, and the enslaved peoples from East Africa. For decades, the Jareer have been limited to Somalia's most menial jobs, be it house cleaning, hawking, or farming. Racism and discrimination towards the Jareer is commonplace, with the slur of 'addoon,' meaning slave, still widespread and miscegenation with clans of higher 'nobility' discouraged-- often violently. And positions within government for the Bantu are few and far between-- with their only senior military commander, General Sheegow Ahmed Ali, dying in ignominy in prison in April 2025 on flimsy charges. But beyond the Jareer, equality for other lower-caste clans remains a distant aspiration, with these communities routinely coming off worse in everything from clan-based blood negotiations to political appointments. And for years, Al-Shabaab has been able to successfully tap in and exploit such discontent and grievances, recruiting many of its rank-and-file fighters from more disenfranchised clans.
But there was perhaps no clearer sign of the irresponsibility of lifting international scrutiny on human rights than Somalia's recent ratification of the African Charter on the Rights and Welfare of the Child at the beginning of October. Although one of the very last African Union member states to do so, the adoption of the Charter obligates the country to align its laws and policies to protect children's rights to essential services such as education and healthcare, as well as outlaw abuses such as child marriage. And yet, that same week, the Ministry of Family and Human Rights Development offered a concerning 'clarification,' detailing that the charter's "blanket ban on marriage under 18 conflicts with Islamic law, which permits marriage based on religious criteria rather than age."
Over several years, conservative Islamist elements within successive federal governments and across Somali society have continued to grow in stature and influence, dissuading any concerted response to the litany of human rights violations faced by women and girls. Most infamously, the Sexual Offences Bill in 2018-- which promised to outlaw child marriage and finally criminalise a raft of sexually violent acts-- was pulled from parliament due to opposition from hardline clerics, including those affiliated with the shadowy Salafist movement, Al-I'tisaam. Today, Somali law remains a hodgepodge of the wildly outdated Somali Penal Code, xeer —the body of clan-based oral jurisprudence, which overwhelmingly favours men, and Sharia courts, including those under Al-Shabaab.
The national outcry to the discovery that an 8-year-old girl was married to an adult man earlier this year barely elicited a whisper of response from Mogadishu, which prefers to aggressively police what it deems as lewd on social media. Not only is gender and sex-based violence against women and girls rampant, but rates of female genital mutilation are among the highest in the world, with nearly all women having undergone the procedure. Greater protections for boys as well are urgently needed, with Puntland particularly facing enduring criticisms of the executions of minors, with four boys under 18 sentenced to death last August for their alleged involvement with Al-Shabaab.
And these are widespread issues just under the control of the government or federal member states. Al-Shabaab, too, shows little regard for the rights of children, routinely coercing young boys into jihadism as a tax on clans under their control. At the celebrations of Eid al-Adha earlier this year, the militant group published images of dozens of children clad in jihadist garb with imitation guns. Long gone are the days of women wearing the traditional guntiino or elegant dhirac — in towns like Jilib and Jamame, they are instead expected to don the full niqab when outside. Instead, years of growing Islamic conservatism and clanism have wrought hell on those at the bottom of Somalia's deeply hierarchical society.
Insisting upon its paper-thin sovereignty may have scored the federal government another PR 'win' about 'Somalia Rising,' but scouring the news in just the past two weeks give a far better reflection of the administration's priorities-- displacing Mogadishu residents, preparing to launch fresh offensives in Gedo, 'clarifying' the rights of children, and detaining critical journalists. But it bears restating that the federal government does not administer Somalia beyond the confines of Mogadishu, so how precisely it might oversee a human rights mandate anywhere else in the country - except perhaps through press statements and social media posts from Villa Somalia — is unmoored from reality. Somalia's reclamation of its human rights mandate is less a symbolic milestone in its state-building trajectory than another blow to scrutiny-- at a time when it is needed more than ever.
The Somali Wire Team
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Two days of heavy clashes (3–4 June) in the Somali capital, Mogadishu, between federal troops and opposition-aligned forces have underscored both the fragility of the city’s security environment and the volatility of electoral politics. Although relative calm has since returned to the two hardest-hit districts - Hawl Wadaag and Abdiaziz - and mediation efforts have intensified, tensions remain high, fuelling fears of renewed armed skirmishes. Credible reports of mass clan militia mobilisation on the edges of Mogadishu speak to a conflict that is widening. The militarisation of politics and elite fragmentation over the electoral process have shattered a core assumption: that Somali leaders will ultimately step back from the brink to negotiate a way forward. Consequently, the country is entering a perilous phase in which domestic factions alone cannot resolve the impasse, making neutral, external mediation a necessity.
Puntland President Sa'id Abdullah Deni is unofficially in the race for the federal presidency of Somalia. By most accounts, the regional leader is running again and this explains his re-engagement with Mogadishu after a three-year hiatus. Driven by shifting electoral dynamics, Deni’s decision to re-engage with the centre forces him to confront a radically altered political landscape in Mogadishu. Under President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud (HSM), the federal government has rewritten the rules of Somali politics, altering the institutional framework and consolidating executive authority.
On 10 May, the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) unilaterally conducted its contentious 'one-person-one-vote' (OPOV) electoral model in South West State (SWS), directly overriding opposition demands for a negotiated, consensus-based framework. Crucially, the very laws underpinning these OPOV elections are themselves deeply contested: the electoral framework was created following a rushed revision of Somalia’s constitution that many federal member states and opposition groups rejected. The vote, exclusively managed by the National Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (NIEBC), saw localised polling in 13 districts and across 126 poll centres and 276 stations. While 376,212 citizens were registered, actual turnout reached 132,430 voters - a participation rate of approximately 35.2% - with 128,276 valid ballots cast and 4,154 deemed spoilt/invalid. The electoral outcome, unsurprisingly, solidified a decisive mandate for Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s Justice and Solidarity Party (JSP); the governing party secured an absolute majority of 51 out of 95 contested legislative seats, comfortably outpacing its closest rival, Sharif Hassan Sheikh Aden’s Ururka Horumarka, which claimed 14 seats.
The Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) has effectively entered a 'grey transition' - a deeply fraught and hotly-contested interregnum that could upend decades of state-building and foment greater instability. By utilising the March 2026 constitutional amendments to extend his presidential mandate until May 2027, Hassan Sheikh Mohamud (HSM) has effectively plunged the fragile Horn of Africa state into a profound period of severe internal strain and legitimacy crisis. This legalistic manoeuvre has roiled domestic politics and put Western partners of Somalia in a difficult spot. If Somalia's Western allies concede to HSM's fait accompli without extracting concessions from him on a negotiated settlement, they are likely to embolden Hassan Sheikh.
Somalia is entering one of the most dangerous political periods in its recent history. An unprecedented convergence of unresolved constitutional disputes, contested electoral arrangements, rising tensions between federal and regional actors, and the growing politicisation of state security institutions has pushed the country towards a potentially destabilising impasse.
A foreign-backed president, a besieged capital city, and a jihadist movement affiliated with Al-Qaeda-- this time not Somalia, but Mali. Late last week, Jama'at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM), the transnational Salafist-jihadist group in Mali, stormed across much of the country's north, as well as entering Bakamo and assassinating the defence minister. The coordinated offensive-- in conjunction with the Tuareg separatist movement, the Azawad Liberation Front (ALF)-- has left the military junta reeling, and forced the withdrawal of their Russian allies from a number of strategic towns.
Last weekend, the Murusade, a major sub-clan of the powerful Hawiye clan family, staged one of the largest and most colourful coronations of a clan chief in recent memory in Mogadishu. The caleemasarka (enthronement) of Ugaas Abdirizaq Ugaas Abdullahi Ugaas Haashi, the new Ugaas or sultan of the Murusade, was attended by thousands of delegates from all parts of Somalia. Conducted next to the imposing and magnificent Ottomanesque Ali Jim'ale Mosque, on the Muslim day of rest, Friday, the occasion blended the Islamic, the regal and the customary; a restatement of an ancient tradition very much alive and vibrant.
With all eyes trained on the Strait of Hormuz blockades and their geopolitical convulsions, discussions and concerns, too, have risen about the perils of other globalised chokepoints, not least the Bab al-Mandab. The threats to the stability of the Bab al-Mandab, the Gulf of Aden, and the Red Sea may not arise principally from the escalatory logic that the US, Iran, and Israel have been locked in, but the threats posed from collapse and contested sovereignty offer little relief. Off Somalia's northern coastline in particular, it is transnational criminal networks — expressed in smuggling, piracy, and, less visibly but no less consequentially, illegal, unreported, and unregulated (IUU) fishing — that define the character of offshore insecurity. It is this last phenomenon that provides the foundation on which much of Somalia's maritime disorder is built, and which remains the most consistently neglected.
Villa Somalia's triumph in Baidoa may yet turn to ashes. Since the ousting of wary friend-turned-foe, Abdiaziz Laftagareen, in late March, the federal government has ploughed ahead with preparations for state- and district-level elections in South West. Nominally scheduled for next week, President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud has chosen to reward his stalwart parliamentary ally, Aden Madoobe from the Rahanweyne/Hadaamo, with the regional presidency after some vacillation, naming him the sole Justice and Solidarity Party (JSP) candidate