The Fire Next Time
The phrase "God gave Noah the rainbow sign, No more water, the fire next time!" is a line from an old African-American blues spiritual, which James Baldwin famously used as the title for his 1963 book, The Fire Next Time. It is a powerful reinterpretation of the biblical story of Noah's Ark, and has become the irresistible metaphor for a monumental crisis averted, a reprieve from apocalypse.
A potentially catastrophic outbreak of violence was averted at the last minute over the weekend in Somalia after clan elders stepped in and appealed to the opposition Somali Salvation Forum (SSF) to postpone their planned protests. The opposition agreed to shelve the demonstrations for nine days. The decision has been widely praised and offers a brief respite, but nothing fundamentally has shifted in the year-long dispute between the Somali government and the opposition. Another showdown remains highly likely.
The violent clashes seemed almost certain - following months of escalating war of words and sabre rattling between the Somali government and the opposition. On Wednesday, Somali opposition alliance leader and ex-President, Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed, was physically assaulted and manhandled by a Somali police officer outside the Wardhigley police station. Around 10 people suffered gunshot wounds after police officers fired live rounds at the opposition team. A member of ex-PM Hassan Ali Khaire's security detail was killed. The response from PM Hamza Barre added fuel to the fire. The PM alleged that the Wardhigley incident was part of an abortive 'coup' attempt and vowed a tougher response. The Mayor of Mogadishu, Mungaab, echoed the PM's threat of increased robust force to quell the unrest.
SSF’s plan to hold a public rally in Mogadishu on 27 September had generated significant public support. Major sub-clans of the Mudulood clan were beginning to rally behind the opposition. The burgeoning clan revolt against the administration of Hassan Sheikh Mohamud (HSM) spooked Villa Somalia and strained the cohesion of the security forces. Tension in the city was high. By Friday afternoon, Somali government troops deployed armoured personnel carriers and armed 'technicals' at major road intersections. More soldiers were deployed to districts such as Siinay, where discontent was immense. Streets emptied as residents sensed the tensions.
Somalia stood on a cliff edge last week A violent confrontation was averted, but the state-led violent land grabs, which triggered the crisis continue to inflame sentiments. With no universal and binding solution to the electoral dispute, further unrest in the coming days is far more likely. Many hope a catastrophic return to armed conflict is avoidable despite the grim situation.
The Somalia Wire Team
Gain unlimited access to all our Editorials. Unlock Full Access to Our Expert Editorials — Trusted Insights, Unlimited Reading.
Create your Sahan account LoginUnlock lifetime access to all our Premium editorial content
While Mogadishu’s elite were ensconced in the Hangar complex last week praising Turkey, berating its critics, and proclaiming a ‘New Somalia’, the country's periphery told a vastly different story - one where "old Somalia," with its deep-seated clan feuds and the brutal calculus of blood and retaliation, remained stubbornly intact.
On 5 September, Somaliland President Abdirahman Irro arrived in the United States for an informal working visit designed to launch a new diplomatic push to cement Hargeisa's rising geopolitical profile. Monitored closely both regionally and internationally, the high-stakes trip carries immense domestic expectations. It represents an ambitious diplomatic outreach by Hargeisa to Washington, capitalising on the momentum generated by Israel's formal recognition of Somaliland in December 2025. However, translating this sudden diplomatic visibility into tangible strategic prospects remains a formidable challenge.
Turkey yesterday crossed a perilous threshold in Somalia when it used its military air assets not for counterterrorism purposes but as a partisan tool in local Somali political warfare.
The Federal Government of Somalia’s (FGS) strategy to assert central authority over federal states and enforce its brand of limited plebiscite – the so-called “one-person-one-vote” (OPOV) – appears to be going awry.
Delegates from Somalia's influential Darood clan family are currently gathering in Nairobi, Kenya, for a crucial "pre-conference" planning session. Driven largely by clan chiefs, the meeting is designed to formulate a unified strategy and coordinate responses to ‘fundamental issues’ (arrimo masiiri ah) within Somalia, principally centre-periphery tensions and the future of federalism. The anticipated culmination of these talks is a comprehensive Pan-Darood congress in Garowe. This development represents a rare and significant intervention, serving as a clear indicator of accelerating political polarisation and fragmentation.
Technicians and engineers have long been familiar with a paradoxical problem: how the repair of a specific defect often triggers a secondary malfunction. "Repair-induced malfunction" is a widely recognised dilemma across technical professions, with awareness and mitigation deeply woven into standard training.
I stand before you today with profound respect and appreciation for the sacrifices the sons and daughters of your countries have made in the AMISOM/ATMIS/AUSSOM missions to help their African brothers and sisters in Somalia fight the scourge of Al-Shabaab, open and maintain critical trade routes, and help in the state-building process of Somalia.
Somalia’s opposition - frustrated by months of stagnant dialogue - has for the first time proposed a transitional mechanism to break the country's protracted political deadlock. In an open letter addressed to a crucial extraordinary summit of African Troop and Police Contributing Countries (TPCCs) which opened on Wednesday in Kampala, the Somali Future Council (SFC) said that a new transitional governance arrangement was vital and necessary and is hoping the initiative will gain traction among regional actors who have boots on the ground and share a vested interest in a durable political settlement.
In a significant symbolic blow to Somali unionism, Fahiima Yusuf Quuje - a prominent Dhulbahante activist from the Jama Siyaad sub-clan who was instrumental in mobilising grassroots support for the armed insurrection in Laas Anood - late last week declared she was repudiating Somali unionism and the ‘Greater Somalia’ ideology, tendering her resignation from her regional assembly seat in the fledgling, Mogadishu-backed Northeastern State of Somalia (NES) and would be returning to Somaliland. A day after the announcement, Quuje landed at Egal International Airport in Hargeisa, where she was greeted by high-ranking dignitaries, garlanded in the Somaliland flag, and serenaded with patriotic anthems.