Issue No. 867

No Deal Yet On Contested Polls

After several days of intense speculation, Somalia's principal national opposition alliance —the National Salvation Forum (NSF) —hit back on Sunday against the splinter electoral deal. A lengthy riposte was issued, dismissing the deal between Villa Somalia and four now-former NSF members as a cosmetic "self-serving" agreement. Despite the government's offering some partial concessions and it being heralded as a mark of genuine consensus, with the NSF core outside the tent, as well as Puntland and Jubaland, the electoral crisis is far from over. Villa Somalia's attempts, meanwhile, to sell this as the 'final' deal and garner some positive headlines with the upcoming UN General Assembly meeting in New York this month, have largely flopped.

Though originally Hawiye-dominated and led by former President Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Aden, the opposition coalition has since grown, encompassing other Darood politicians such as former PM Abdi Farah Shirdoon and former Foreign Minister Ahmed Awad. Only after intense pressure from international partners, Villa Somalia eventually agreed to meet with opposition politicians earlier this year. However, several rounds of negotiations led nowhere, as Hassan Sheikh refused to publicly commit to rolling back some of the more contentious elements of his electoral agenda, particularly the constitutional amendments. And since the last set of talks in mid-August, the electoral stalemate has simmered away-- up until a sudden agreement between four more marginal politicians within the coalition and the government. The splinter members did secure some concessions from Villa Somalia, not least that the country would retain a parliamentary, rather than a presidential system of government. However, the breakaway faction, which included former PM Omar Abdirashid Ali Sharmarke, nevertheless ceded a one-person, one-vote (OPOV) election under the auspices of the Interior Ministry, as per the unilateral, centralising legislation passed last year. The deal further 'confirmed' the controversial revisions to the Provisional Constitution. 

The subsequent NSF statement on Sunday rejected the agreement, stating that nothing had substantially changed from the electoral stalemate in place for much of this year. The statement covers significant ground, including spurning the continued displacement of thousands from public land in Mogadishu and the flagging war against Al-Shabaab. With Hassan Sheikh finally offering some concessions, some are speculating that the president will continue pushing the unworkable direct electoral model to force a denouement before seeking a term extension of at least a year. In this light, the statement calls for no term extension for the president-- the perennial and dangerous feature of Somali politics. It further urged the regional states of Galmudug, Hirshabelle, and South West State to proceed and organise their own elections, the leaders of which are all members of HSM's Justice and Solidarity Party (JSP). And the NSF has demanded a national conference of all Somali stakeholders, including Puntland and Jubaland, to chart a path forward.

As anticipated, Villa Somalia has sought to massage the international response to the splinter electoral deal, casting those remaining within the NSF —the majority and most prominent politicians —as a handful of bygone obstructionists. Yet most of the 'traditional' international community has adopted a 'wait and see' strategy or rebuffed Mogadishu, stating that the deal is partial. And the continued galling appeals by Villa Somalia for millions of dollars to facilitate the much-diminished direct elections have also been rejected. The broad message to Villa Somalia from partners — excluding, of course, Beijing, Doha, and Ankara — is that a partial deal with a flawed electoral model will not be accepted. Yet the president is far from chastened, and will surely be looking for new ways in the coming weeks to outflank the opposition and diminish international pressure. 

Meanwhile, signs indicate that a broader coalition between the NSF and the two Darood Federal Member States (FMSs), excluding the Laas Aanood experiment, may be emerging. The alliance has called for a national dialogue —crucially with Puntland and Jubaland —to agree on the format and timing of the 2026 elections. President Hassan Sheikh, however, appears keen to keep the two Darood administrations distracted by the Sool and Gedo machinations, absent them from any negotiations, and fudge his way through another partial deal-- either for rigged direct polls or a term extension. But that cannot be tenable – Puntland President Said Abdullahi Deni and his Jubaland counterpart Ahmed Madoobe must be part of a future deal on the elections. Their participation has become a red line for any agreement.

So, in recent weeks, Villa Somalia has been quietly attempting to restart dialogue with Madoobe with the support of Kenya, even while violently wresting Gedo from Kismaayo's administration. Kenyan intelligence chief, Noordin Haji, has stepped in again to try and broker some sort of resolution, travelling to Kismaayo with the Kenyan army chief to meet with Madoobe. Though a phone call was facilitated between Madoobe and Hassan Sheikh, the Jubaland president remains staunchly opposed to the government's electoral agenda and the destructive cleaving off of Gedo from his government. Nairobi may be able to broker a de-escalatory deal between the two, but Jubaland's latest statement in support of the NSF reflects that Madoobe's position on the polls remains unchanged. Further, with PM Hamza Abdi Barre in place, any broader reconciliation between Madoobe and Villa Somalia will prove complex, with the Ogaadeen prime minister and former ally of the Jubaland president having led the destabilising charge to unseat him.

One of the sharpest criticisms of the direct electoral model offered by the federal government has been its own support for continued indirect elections. Over the weekend, as widely anticipated, the SSC-Khaatumo leader and Dhulbahante politician, Abdikadir Ahmed Aw-Ali 'Firdhiye', was selected as the president of the newly established North-Eastern State (NES). Again, an indirect, clan-based process was used, as it has been in the replacement of several MPs in recent months, although the NES race suffered from accusations of interference from the Interior Ministry and Firdhiye himself. It is apparent that Villa Somalia is willing to support whichever electoral model it prefers for its allies, even while preaching direct democracy. 

New momentum towards electoral deal-making is encouraging, and it suggests that the president may be willing to make further concessions. But if Villa Somalia is angling to 'buy' a term extension in exchange for a 'return to the tent', it is a bad deal, and the NSF are right to insist upon the original term length for the executive. Further, the contradictions inherent in the electoral formula remain, and the opposition, Jubaland, and Puntland will not accept Villa Somalia's continued insistence on using flawed constitutional amendments from 2024. As the NSF pointed out over the weekend, for Villa Somalia to unilaterally impose its own electoral model while the country is almost equally divided over two rival constitutional texts is both problematic and unprecedented. A total return to the 2012 Provisional Constitution is the only realistic option at this stage. Meanwhile, as seen at the end of Farmaajo's term, any term extension would open the door to further political machinations, graft, and a continued stalling of the badly mauled state-building process. No deal is tenable without the inclusion of Jubaland and Puntland, and Deni and Madoobe must be at the table. A piecemeal or partial deal cannot bring the country over the line, and those international partners with continued clout in Mogadishu, such as the US and UK, should mount pressure again on Villa Somalia to agree upon a new electoral compact that is both consensual and binding.

The Somalia Wire Team