Issue No. 838

'Galkacyo and Kismaayo are free'

Strolling through Galkacyo in Puntland and Kismaayo in Jubaland in the early 1990s, it was not uncommon to see young Somalis wearing t-shirts adorned with 'Galkacyo and Kismaayo are free' or words to a similar effect. Amid the rampaging forces of General Mohamed Farrah Aidid in central Somalia, the t-shirts neatly encapsulated a sentiment of broader pan-Darood solidarity at a moment of intense political instability and armed conflict in the Hawiye-dominated centre of the country. As Mark Twain once said, 'History doesn't repeat itself, but it does often rhyme,' and the warming ties between Jubaland and Puntland over thirty years later in opposition to Mogadishu have echoes of the early days of the civil war amidst the broader strained Hawiye-Darood relations today.

On Sunday, for the first time in several years, Jubaland President Ahmed Madoobe touched down in Garowe to a warm welcome from his Puntland counterpart, Said Abdullahi Deni. The red carpet was rolled out for Jubaland's elder statesman, with Puntland cabinet ministers lined up to welcome him and signal a firm burying of the hatchet between Madoobe and Deni. For much of the past three years, Madoobe and Deni's relationship has been frosty at best, with the two leaders having fallen out amidst the tussle for the federal presidency in 2022, with the Jubaland president having eventually backed the victor and incumbent President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud. But much has changed since then, and the destabilising antics of the federal government towards both Darood-majority Federal Member States (FMSs) appear to have eventually drawn them back together. A communique is now anticipated later today detailing their joint position against the caustic politics of Villa Somalia, which continues to attempt to mask a rigged one-person, one-vote through the rhetoric of direct democracy.

As was the case in the early 1990s, neither the Darood in Puntland nor Jubaland is politically uniform, and Villa Somalia has worked to foment crises of legitimacy in both FMSs. For Garowe, this has come in the form of the Dhulbahante-led SSC-Khaatumo administration in Laas Aanood, which Mogadishu has enticed with the offer of becoming a full FMS-- essentially to dismember Puntland's claim as the Darood/Harti homeland. To the south in Jubaland, while the plot to leverage Mareehaan grievances in Gedo has floundered, the sub-clan nevertheless remains divided, with some harbouring resentment against the Ogaadeen-majority administration of Madoobe. Alongside this, the Hawiye-dominated government has continued to use a whole box of tricks to undermine both administrations, including denying flights and deploying troops into parts of Gedo, as well as withholding humanitarian and developmental assistance. The sight of the two most independent FMSs coming together should send alarm bells ringing at Villa Somalia.

It has taken a substantial amount of time to reach this moment, following apparent reconciliation talks between the two leaders in Nairobi, as well as months of gradually warming relations. Notably, a broader geopolitical pattern from the Gulf has also solidified along the lines of the Puntland/Jubaland vs Mogadishu schism, with the UAE offering support to the FMSs and Qatar, as well as Turkey, to Villa Somalia. Abu Dhabi– also a close ally of Somaliland– has faced the increasing ire of federal officials in recent months, particularly as it has played a prominent role in delivering military supplies to Puntland and conducting drone strikes in support of Operation Hilaac, its anti-Daesh offensive. The disparity between the successes of Puntland in stabilising and dislodging the jihadist group and the surging instability in central Somalia further calls to mind similar contrasts in parts of the 1990s. Last month, PM Hamza Abdi Barre, taking one of his usual swipes at the national opposition, accused them of being "foreign-funded," with similar comments soon after by the president, who cautioned against "governments promoting Somalia's breakup." Both were considered thinly veiled references to the UAE.

Early reports from the Deni-Madoobe summit suggest that it has gone well, with the participants expected to present a unified front against the sweeping amendments to the Provisional Constitution and attempts to rig the country's electoral system. It appears unlikely that an alternate electoral model will be proposed at this stage, but Deni has long been interested in creating an alternative national dialogue process to galvanise opposition against Villa Somalia’s plans. With Madoobe now on his side, Deni may calculate that he can more actively plan a Garowe process. But with both Puntland and Jubaland having faced significant international pressure to negotiate with Mogadishu and rejoin the yet non-existent 'single-track national process,' they will also need a coherent and unified response that does not muddy the political waters further.

Crucially, both the Puntland and Jubaland leaders are far more independent from the federal government than their counterparts in Hirshabelle, South West, and Galmudug, enjoying the largesse from the ports in Bosaaso and Kismaayo that keeps them less financially tethered to Mogadishu. A similar dynamic played out towards the end of the Mohamed Abdullahi Farmaajo presidency, with both Deni and Madoobe having united to advocate for a return to federalism as the federal leader sought to unilaterally extend his term. However, the stakes are much higher this time around, given the deteriorated security situation and the National Consultative Council's (NCC) neutering, which significantly reduces the avenues for resisting the government's agenda. Indeed, it was partly the continued absence of Puntland from the NCC that prompted Madoobe to walk out of the forum, further restricting its political reach to essentially a Hawiye-dominated forum. Deni and Madoobe may now further seek to capitalise on their unity to work with their counterparts in the other FMSs to attempt to genuinely rebuild the NCC. 

To the south, this morning at Villa Somalia, opposition members of the Somalia Salvation Alliance (SSA), led by former President Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed, have gathered to meet with President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud. The much-delayed meeting comes after the coalition of predominantly Hawiye opposition individuals, although it has increasingly incorporated others such as former Darood Prime Ministers Abdirashid Ali Sharmarke and Abdi Farah Shirdoon, as well as former Foreign Minister Ahmed Awad, refused to attend the government-organised 15 June national dialogue event. Widely ridiculed, it only included handpicked civil society representatives and opportunist politicians, with senior government officials taking the stand to lampoon the opposition and hail the incumbent government. There was no sense of the national political crisis or a need to negotiate-- a monologue rather than a dialogue. Having refused to rubber-stamp the government's conference, the so-called 'national opposition' is expected to lay out its issues with Villa Somalia's electoral and constitutional agenda once again this morning. The coalition is also expected to push for the return of Jubaland and Puntland's representation to the NCC.

It is unclear, however, whether Villa Somalia is willing to offer any serious concessions, and bringing both Deni and Madoobe to the table will require it to disengage from wielding SSC-Khaatumo as a political cudgel and rescind the outstanding arrest warrant for the Jubaland president-- at the absolute minimum. Further, the secretary-general of the opposition coalition alleged on Monday that federal police continue to target and harass its members in Mogadishu on the orders of the federal government. Villa Somalia may feel emboldened by the immediate threat from Al-Shabaab seizing Mogadishu having passed and the ongoing injections of Turkish military equipment, but the country's political settlement remains deeply fractured and nearer breaking point than in several years. Pushing ahead with its farcical one-person, one-vote (OPOV) agenda in towns in Gedo and Laas Aanood could plunge it over the edge.

The outcome of the SSA-Villa Somalia meeting remains to be seen, but if some progress can be made —and there are elements that the federal government is purportedly willing to negotiate over —then it could mark the first step towards a more consensus-oriented federal election next year. This is a big 'if', however, and all the noise coming from Villa Somalia, particularly from the hardliner PM Hamza Abdi Barre, suggests that the government intends to press on. The SSA coalition has yet to detail an alternate model to the OPOV system, but moving away from the widely disliked 4.5 clan model is one issue, and the prospect of holding hybrid elections is another extremely thorny dilemma. How that is elucidated remains to be seen, but it will be critical to have both Madoobe and Deni onboard for any such discussions.

There is no sign today of 'Galkacyo and Kismaayo are free' t-shirts on the streets of either city, but Darood solidarity in the face of an aggressively centralising Hawiye authority in Mogadishu appears to have returned. Somalia’s federal government is a far cry from General Aidid's marauding clan militias, but its purpose is all too familiar: parlaying control of the Somali capital into domination of the country from its political centre. In 1991, Kismaayo and Galkacyo had no choice but to defend their freedom by force of arms. Hopefully, today's occupants of Villa Somalia will find the wisdom to seek a negotiated solution instead.

The Somali Wire Team