Issue No. 786

Suppressing Opposition, One Hotel at a Time

The federal government has taken another leaf out of the Mohamed Abdullahi Farmaajo playbook– attempting to break up MP and opposition meetings in Mogadishu. In January, a missive was sent out to several hotels to inform them that any such meetings are banned without prior federal approval. And on Monday, federal MP Dahir Amin Jesow accused Villa Somalia of directing soldiers to break up a hotel gathering of 5 opposition parties in Mogadishu. As Villa Somalia lauds the opening of the registering of political associations and the promise of 'one-person, one-vote' (OPOV) elections, it is simultaneously working to choke the country's fragile civic and democratic space. The need for a transitional political arrangement only continues to grow.

Ahead of the supposed OPOV polls, with protests and meetings being shut down, public officials and lawmakers intimidated, and journalists arrested, one might ask what election monitors would report if they were deployed to Mogadishu today. It could hardly be positive. A democratic, credible election is greater than the sum of its parts, far more than just the ticking of a ballot in one of the only 800 polling centres identified by the controversial federal electoral commission. Freedom of speech, alignment with the Constitution as well as credible electoral laws, and buy-in from the majority of the population are all critical. These issues are only heightened in Somalia, lacking a history of strong democratic polls and the implicit threat of violence underpinning its political settlement. Yet a de-fanged UN is missing in action, while the divided international community has been unable to formulate a coherent response to the chasm between Villa Somalia's rhetoric and actions. 

The breaking up of an opposition meeting by armed troops in Mogadishu had been coming for some time. The federal government has deployed increasingly aggressive and militarised tactics outside of the capital against its perceived political opposition, including in Gedo and supporting the SSC-Khaatumo militia in Somaliland's Sool region. Federal parliamentarians, too, have been repeatedly caught in the crosshairs, with dozens being denied permission to fly to Jubaland amid the Kismaayo-Mogadishu fallout since October 2024. And just this week, the governor of the Jasiira district in Lower Shabelle alleged that he was assaulted by three officers who accused him of organising forces affiliated with the former opposition movement known as 'Badbaado Qaran' (National Salvation Forces). 

In the capital, Hawiye opposition politicians led by former President Sheikh Sherif Sheikh Ahmed, former PM Hassan Ali Khaire, and Wadajir party leader Abdirahman Abdishakur are attempting to push back against the government. This opposition group once counted incumbent President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud in their number as they resisted Farmaajo's similar upending of Somalia's political settlement. But jitters have also been rising over federal plans to disarm the forces in and around the capital associated with the opposition. As ever, the question in Somalia is, 'Who is disarming who?' While it may appear that federal troops are seeking to take back weapons from rogue clan militias, Sheikh Sherif and others seemingly suspect that Villa Somalia wants to limit the chances of another 'Badbaado Qaran' emerging and its opposition convening. 

In a televised address yesterday, Sheikh Sherif again laid into the federal government, attacking the breaking up of the opposition meeting, attended by MPs from his Himilo Qaran Party. Calling the militarisation of political disputes "barbaric," the former president called it a "blatant violation of political rights and democratic values." Sheikh Sherif is not just a prominent Hawiye opposition leader but also one of the likely leaders of the political parties supposed to emerge from the political association elections. Again, any independent election monitor would surely raise concerns about the cavernous trust deficit.

Meanwhile, just yesterday in Hargeisa, hundreds of now-opposition Kulmiye supporters cheerfully gathered in the streets and by the presidential palace to welcome home former President Muse Bihi Abdi from the Emirates yesterday. In perhaps no other country in the Horn today could opposition members gather in front of the presidential compound with guards and security forces idly watching them pass by. Having carried off the successful, peaceful presidential OPOV elections last November won by Abdirahman 'Irro,' the democratic and civic gulf between Somalia and Somaliland has never been more apparent. The simple act of the Kulmiye demonstration belies a much deeper democratic maturity in the polity that continues to be largely ignored by the international community. 

Returning to Somalia, the apparent accusation by the security forces that the Jasiira governor was an organiser of 'Badbaado Qaran' perhaps inadvertently points to the direction the country is heading. Badbaado Qaran refers to a former opposition group formed in March 2021 of predominantly Hawiye militias during the Farmaajo presidency. At that time, it was formed to prevent his attempts to delay and rig the polls, successfully deploying to the streets of Mogadishu and nearly overrunning Villa Somalia. Among the former leaders of Badaado Qaran are, ironically, allies of Hassan Sheikh, such as former Banaadir Police Commissioner Sadiq John and Mohamed Abuukar Jafar, the former commissioner of Mogadishu's Dayniile district. Both are now sitting MPs.

If election monitoring were to begin now, it might be too early to cry foul, but under the leadership of this federal government, a 'free and fair' election remains a very distant prospect. For months, there have been growing reports of the gradual mobilisation of opposition and pro-government militias in and around Mogadishu ahead of possible violence in the capital. Whether this culminates into a movement like Badaado Qaran remains to be seen, and there are fewer obvious ringleaders who might pick up the mantle. But with the federal government increasingly violently targeting its political opposition, the cyclical 'crisis point' in Somalia's politics continues to edge closer. To stave off such a crisis and open violence in the streets of Mogadishu, a negotiated, consensus-led political transitional arrangement must be pursued-- and urgently.

The Somali Wire Team