The Pretoria agreement revisited
Last week, for the first time since the formation of the Tigray Interim Administration (TIA) in March 2023, senior Tigrayan and federal officials met in Addis to discuss implementing the Pretoria agreement. Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and TIA President Getachew Reda were both present at the meeting, as well as the recently re-elected Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) Chairman, Debretsion Gebremichael, among others. The meeting saw the federal and regional governments agree to fully realise the Pretoria agreement, with the expectation of further negotiations in the presence of African Union, United Nations, and US government representatives.
The buildup to the meeting on 9 February was acrimonious, with frustrations spilling over about the ongoing humanitarian crisis consuming Tigray and the future of occupied Western Tigray. Still, negotiations between Mekelle and Addis are long overdue. The Pretoria agreement had gaping holes and was abnormal in its structure-- being essentially an expanded upon Cessation of Hostilities Agreement. Since the conclusion of fighting in November 2022, the implementation of the deal has been irregular or entirely absent. Promises of a national dialogue and a transitional justice mechanism, among other issues, remain contested and unresolved. Most pressing of all is the continued occupation of large parts of Tigray by Amhara and Eritrean forces.
Since last summer, federal officials have touted the possibility of a referendum as a means to resolve the continued occupation of Western Tigray by Amhara forces, despite pushback from Tigrayan officials and internally displaced persons (IDPs). In his parliamentary question-and-answer session on 6 February, Ethiopian Prime Minister Aby Ahmed asserted that the TIA was in favour of a referendum to resolve the occupation.
This held little truck in Mekelle, which has increasingly pushed back against the federal government in recent weeks. Before the meeting on 9 February, TIA President Getachew Reda publicly refuted the PM's comments on several grounds in a TV interview. First, he insisted that the 1994 Constitution "is clear" that the structures for implementing and overseeing a referendum are absent, with no popular mandate for the TIA and with no regional council in Tigray. Second, the TIA president questioned how a referendum could be conducted with over a million IDPs still encamped in Tigray and unable to return to their homes. Other questions also remain, including how the ENDF might subdue the vast territory for a referendum when the Amhara nationalist militias known as 'Fano' remain deeply opposed to restoring Tigray's control over its constitutional lands. On 12 February, in a press conference in Mekelle, Getachew confirmed that the talk of a referendum was the central sticking point of the discussions. Still, the TIA president said that there was interest from both parties to deepen the fragile peace, particularly with the region so volatile.
In large part, the current humanitarian crisis engulfing Tigray is borne out of the Eritrean and Amhara occupation. The region has badly suffered without the fertile land of Western Tigray to provide a surplus in lean harvests. Despite new pledges by international donors, including the UK, immediate and immense humanitarian and financial support is urgently needed across Tigray. Initial fears that the World Food Programme (WFP) and USAID had slashed their distribution targets by as much as 80% have, thankfully, turned out not to be the case. The WFP and USAID-backed Joined Emergency Operation (JEOP) current food distribution cycle was 3.2 million people outside of Western Tigray for January 2024, far higher than their combined target of 970,100 for December 2023.
But there remain several major stumbling blocks to reaching those in urgent need of food aid. First is the continued lack of data as to where precisely the aid is needed, though there have been improvements in this in recent weeks. Second is an issue of distribution, with the Relief Society of Tigray (REST) temporarily suspended as an aid distributor for JEOP. While USAID has publicly attributed its suspension to technical problems connected to an audit, the suspension appears to be disrupting aid delivery, with WFP and JEOP reaching just 14% of their distribution target by 21 January. The nutrition response for children is also deeply lacking, with only a fraction of the necessary aid reaching the most vulnerable.
There is little manoeuvrability due to the scale of hunger and malnutrition. The systematic destruction of grain stores, farms, crops, factories, water pipes, and much else during the war by ENDF, Amhara and Eritrean forces destroyed the traditional social safety net in Tigray, which could, at least partially, absorb lean years from a poor harvest. But the worst drought in years, on top of the months of aid suspension, means that any delay in aid delivery will surely result in further preventable deaths.
With fresh talks between Addis and Mekelle expected in the coming days, there is an opportunity to reflect on the failures and possibilities of the Pretoria agreement. And with African Union and US officials present, both guarantors of the accord, there is a pressing need to ensure its implementation and restore Tigray’s control over its constitutional territory. While Addis and the international community's response to Tigray has been deeply lacking post-war, it is not too late to change course.
By the Ethiopian Cable team
Gain unlimited access to all our Editorials. Unlock Full Access to Our Expert Editorials — Trusted Insights, Unlimited Reading.
Create your Sahan account LoginUnlock lifetime access to all our Premium editorial content
The 19th-century Russian novelist Fyodor Dostoevsky wrote in his novel, The Brothers Karamazov: “Above all, do not lie to yourself. A man who lies to himself and listens to his own lie comes to a point where he does not discern any truth either in himself or anywhere around him.” In Somalia today, we are suffering because our head of state has lied to himself so much so, that Dostoevsky had alluded to, he has reached a point where he does not discern any truth either in himself or anywhere around him. However, before we delve into the nature or purpose of the lie and its grave national, regional, and international consequences, a bit of history is warranted on Somalia as a nation-state.
In September 2025, Feisal Mohammed Ali was arrested for possession and trading in two rhino horns worth USD 63,000. This was not the first time that this smuggler had seen the bars of a Kenyan prison cell. On 22 July 2016, Feisal - described as an “ivory smuggling kingpin” - received a 20-year prison sentence and fined USD 150,000 for dealing 314 pieces of ivory. Weighing over two tonnes, the ivory was estimated to have come from around 120 elephants. Hailed as a turning point in Kenya’s pioneering crackdown on Illegal Wildlife Trade (IWT), Feisal’s incarceration became proof of the country’s commitment to safeguarding its wildlife. This frail pillar came crashing down in August 2018 when Feisal was released following the acquittal of his sentence due to alleged use of tampered evidence by the prosecution.
On Monday, a politician widely regarded as Ankara’s primary proxy in Somalia was inaugurated as a Member of Parliament (MP) under circumstances that Somali citizens and political observers are denouncing as a brazen institutional theft. This unprecedented case of electoral misconduct occurs in the twilight of the current parliament’s mandate, signaling a deep-seated crisis in legislative integrity.
The sparks from the Middle East's conflagration have set Ethiopia's laboured fuel industry ablaze, and the country is grinding to a halt. Ongoing geopolitical and fiscal shocks emanating from the US/Israel war with Iran—and the spill-over across the Gulf—have left few regions untouched. With no satisfactory end in sight, the decades-old—if creaking—US-underpinned security architectThe sparks from the Middle East's conflagration have set Ethiopia's laboured fuel industry ablaze, and the country is grinding to a halt. Ongoing geopolitical and fiscal shocks emanating from the US/Israel war with Iran—and the spill-over across the Gulf—have left few regions untouched. With no satisfactory end in sight, the decades-old—if creaking—US-underpinned security architecture in the Middle East has been upended, as have the globalised hydrocarbon networks that long served as the financial lifeblood of energy-importing states.
Apathy pervades the Djiboutian population. A week tomorrow, on April 10, the country will head to the polls, with President Ismaïl Omar Guelleh seeking a 6th— essentially uncontested — term in office. With his coronation inevitable, his family's dynastic rule over this rentier city-state will be extended once more. But in a region wracked by armed conflict and geopolitical contestation, the ageing Guelleh's capacity to manage the familial, ethnic, and regional fractures within and without grows ever more complicated. And Djibouti's apparent stability is no product of institutional strength, but rather an increasingly fractious balance of external rents and coercive control-- underpinned by geopolitical relevance.
In the 17th century, the Ottoman polymath Kâtip Çelebi penned 'The Gift to the Great on Naval Campaigns', a great tome that analysed the history of Ottoman naval warfare at a moment when Constantinople sought to reclaim maritime supremacy over European powers.
Why have one mega-dam when you can have three more? Details are scarce, but Ethiopia has unveiled plans to build three more dams on the Blue Nile, just a few months after the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) was completed.
Villa Somalia has prevailed in Baidoa. After weeks of ratcheting tensions, South West State President Abdiaziz Laftagareen proved a paper tiger this morning, unable to resist the massed forces backed by Mogadishu. After several hours of fighting, Somali National Army (SNA) forces and allied Rahanweyne militias now control most of Baidoa and, thus, the future of South West. In turn, Laftagareen is believed to have retreated to the protection of the Ethiopian military at Baidoa's airport, with the bilateral forces having avoided the conflict today.
Last October, Al-Shabaab Inqimasin (suicide assault infantry) overran a National Intelligence and Security Agency (NISA) base in Mogadishu, freeing several high-ranking jihadist detainees and destroying substantial quantities of intel. A highly choreographed attack, the Inqimasin had disguised their vehicle in official NISA daub, weaving easily through the heavily guarded checkpoints dotting the capital to reach the Godka Jilicow compound before blowing open the gates with a suicide car bomb. In the months since, Al-Shabaab's prodigious media arm-- Al-Kataib Media Foundation-- has drip-fed images and videos drawn from the Godka Jilicow attack, revelling in their infiltration of Mogadishu as well as the dark history of the prison itself. And in a chilling propaganda video broadcast at Eid al-Fitr last week, it was revealed that among the Inqimasin's number was none other than the son of Al-Shabaab's spokesperson Ali Mohamed Rage, better known as Ali Dheere.