Issue No. 212

Published 14 Nov 2023

Peace for Oromia?

Published on 14 Nov 2023 16:43 min

Peace for Oromia?

Last week, some positive news emerged from Tanzania. On 7 November in Dar es Salaam, for the first time, senior Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) commanders and federal military officials met face-to-face for the resumption of long-overdue peace talks. For nearly 5 years, the Oromia region has faced major upheaval and the ebbs and flows of armed conflict. Thousands have died, and many more have been displaced, largely in western and southern Oromia. An influential rebel group, the OLA controls a swathe of rural Oromia despite repeated military offensives.

Initial talks were held in Zanzibar in April and May 2023 but concluded after 10 days without an agreement. Just days after their close, the federal government launched a fresh offensive but again made little progress against the well-entrenched group in rural Oromia.

A series of private meetings in the preceding weeks laid the groundwork for more substantive negotiations. This time around, the OLA is being represented by several high-ranking commanders, including the OLA Western and Central Commander Kumsa Diriba, known as Jaal Marroo. The Head of Military Intelligence, General Getachew Gudia, is leading the negotiations for the federal government, among others. And on 12 November, two senior federal politicians also reportedly joined the talks in a sign they are progressing well– Redwan Hussein, the national security adviser to PM Abiy Ahmed and lead negotiator in the November 2022 Pretoria talks, and Minister of Justice Gedion Timothewos. Their presence is leading to a growing optimism that these new talks might produce tangible results for Oromia.

The talks are being facilitated by senior figures in the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD), with Dr Workneh Gebeyehu, who hails from the Oromia region, seemingly playing a central role, as well as officials from the US, Norway, and Kenya. In recent months, the federal government has faced increased pressure from the US and other allies to resolve the conflict in Oromia. On the anniversary of the signing of the Pretoria agreement on 3 November, the US again highlighted its concern about the conflicts that "threaten Ethiopia's fragile peace." Its participation in these talks, led by US Special Envoy to the Horn of Africa Mike Hammer, is important.

Though the Zanzibar talks in May made little progress, the ongoing negotiations in Dar es Salaam have a different timbre. Today, Ethiopia faces escalating conflict in the Amhara region as well as the looming threat of war with Eritrea. Forces on both sides of the Eritrean-Ethiopian border are seemingly readying themselves for the possibility of armed conflict, with major troop manoeuvres near Zambalessa ongoing and significant deliveries of weapons. Part of the rationale behind seeking peace in Oromia is that Addis may be seeking to avoid war on three fronts—Amhara, Oromia, and the Eritrean border. Freeing up thousands of Ethiopian National Defence Force soldiers stationed in Oromia, though unlikely to happen overnight, could prove pivotal in the federal government's attempts to subdue the Amhara nationalist militia 'Fano' or in the event of war with Eritrea. 

If these preliminary talks are to be successful, however, critical lessons must be learnt from the failures of the Pretoria agreement that concluded fighting in Tigray in November 2022. First is the incomplete and awkward nature of the deal itself as an expanded cessation of hostilities agreement. Since November 2022, the substantial political negotiations that should have followed have yet to occur, leaving the political settlement in Tigray and the relationship between Mekelle and Addis in flux. Second is the near-total absence of international pressure to secure the deal and hold the parties accountable. The relative silence of the Pretoria agreement's guarantors, including the African Union and the US, in the face of the continued occupation of roughly a third of Tigray by Amhara militia and Eritrean soldiers should not be repeated. Moreover, issues including reconstruction and accountability are yet to be addressed. For Oromia, a clear and enforceable implementation matrix backed by influential guarantors is critical to ensure real peace gains rather than the 'frozen conflict' of Tigray.
 
While the content of these talks has not been officially disclosed, several issues are likely on the cards. Mass displacement, hunger, and disease are exacting a severe toll on the civilian population in Oromia. Restoring full humanitarian access and supplies to these communities will likely be a priority in these negotiations. Offering political concessions, such as removing the OLA's 'terrorist' label and some form of inclusion into Oromia's politics as the OLA sought in Zanzibar, would also be important steps to quelling the region's crisis. In turn, the armed group may also engage with the country's ongoing National Dialogue initiative and the transitional justice mechanism set to be detailed by the government in the coming weeks. Disarmament and demobilisation for OLA combatants will surely be a pre-requisite. 
 
Peace is a good thing. Those in Oromia have suffered unbearably since 2019, and deserve far better than what they have been dealt. But concluding a war to begin another does not bode well for the stability of Ethiopia or Oromia. Further, while the presence of Redwan and Gedion is undoubtedly a positive sign, one should remember that prior to the Pretoria agreement, the federal and Tigrayan officials met in the Seychelles and Djibouti to try and hammer out a ceasefire. None stuck, and the resumption of conflict in August 2022 led to the death of tens of thousands of combatants and civilians. Nevertheless, the Dar es Salaam talks could hail Oromia's most significant peace gains in years. Ethiopia's international partners and OLA allies should pressure them to push for a comprehensive ceasefire and political resolution that responds to the deep and enduring concerns of the Oromos. 

By the Ethiopian Cable team

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