Issue No. 197

Summer of Discontent in Amhara

In early July, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed spent several days touring southern Ethiopia. In Dilla in the Gedeo zone, he spoke of a “prevailing peace” in Ethiopia and encouraged all citizens to “scramble for the newly-found peace, to embrace, protect and utilise it.” But the speech was also laced with threats against his opponents and warnings of impending conflict in Ethiopia. The apparent contradiction notwithstanding, Abiy invited Ethiopians to embrace peace.
 
The assertion that peace is prevailing in Ethiopia is problematic. In the last four years, Ethiopian security forces have fought insurgencies and instability in Oromia, Tigray, Amhara, Benishangul-Gumuz, and Gambella. Hundreds of thousands of Tigrayans, tens of thousands of Oromo, thousands of Amhara, and hundreds of Sidama, Gumuz, Anuak, and other Ethiopians have perished in these conflicts. On the same day Abiy was speaking about peace, assassinations were being carried out in the Amhara region, along with indiscriminate killings in Oromia, and executions in Gambella.
 
It is true that Tigray has had some respite from armed conflict since November 2022, after war killed an estimated 14% of the population in the region. But the Pretoria agreement that ended the worst of the conflict has not been fully implemented. It stipulated that all combatants were to withdraw from Tigray, and constitutionally delineated territories must be restored. Contrary to the agreement, Amhara forces continue to occupy western Tigray, and Eritrean forces remain in parts of northern and western Tigray. Amhara President Yilkal Kefale recently proposed ending the occupation through referendum, negotiations between Amhara and Tigray, or a decision by Ethiopia’s House of Federation. All three options are unacceptable to Tigray authorities.

From the perspective of the Interim Administration of Tigray, the law of the land consists of Ethiopia’s 1995 Constitution and the Pretoria Agreement, which should require all forcibly annexed territories to revert to Tigray. Tigray Vice President General Tsadkan Gebretensae has publicly stated that occupying forces must be removed from Tigray and its boundaries restored and that the responsibility for this rests with Addis. General Tadesse Worde, also a Vice President of Tigray, has said that the regional administration has been compelled to station forces near the occupied territories. The Pretoria Agreement is holding, but it is fragile. Conditions for sustainable peace are far from established.

United States government authorities appear concerned that the occupation of western Tigray could lead to a resumption of conflict. On 4 August, Secretary of State Anthony Blinken, in a phone call with Prime Minister Abiy, called on the Ethiopian government to fully implement the Pretoria Agreement, and resolve the crises in the Amhara and Oromia regions through dialogue.

Amhara cannot be described as a peaceful region either. In April, federal security forces imprisoned thousands of alleged Fano militia in an attempt to contain escalating tensions following the dissolution of regional special forces. Fano responded by attacking federal security forces in North Wollo, North Gondar and West Gojjam. Rumbling instability continued into June when several police commanders, mayors, and Prosperity Party officials were assassinated. Grenade attacks were carried out against police stations, prisons were stormed, and prisoners were freed in several towns in North Showa and East Gojjam. Military camps were raided and weapons were seized in Azezo in North Gondar and at Lalibela’s airport.

On 26 July, Field Marshall Berhanu Jula, Chief of Staff of the Ethiopian National Defence Force (ENDF), was trapped by protestors and Fano militia while attending a military event in Gorgora, North Gondar. Federal forces attempted to keep protestors away using force; an unknown number were reportedly killed. Unable to leave by car, Berhanu and his party were evacuated by helicopter. The incident was evidence of a disintegrating regional government.

This conflict has now expanded in scope and intensity. Last week, various Fano militias defeated federal forces and occupied the historic city of Gondar, and attacked ENDF forces in Bahir Dar, Debre Behran, and Debre Markos. Fano blocked highways converging on Gondar, Bahir Dar, and Lalibela, and began establishing their own local authorities in areas they secured. Yilkal Kelafe, from his new headquarters in Addis, wrote to Abiy requesting intervention, and on 4 August, a state of emergency was declared in Amhara.

Fano militia now appears to have been pushed out of Amhara’s major cities by the ENDF. An anonymous Fano militia said fighting in Gondar was intense, with federal forces “using tanks” while Fano “were just using Kalashnikovs.” While the federal government appears to have retaken the cities, it is unlikely this conflict will be resolved any time soon. Many Amhara have accepted the propaganda that Addis is out to destroy them. And the disparate collection of fighters that is Fano complicates attempts to disband the militia. Some are disillusioned farmers who have picked up guns in anger over limited access to essential fertiliser to maintain their livelihoods. Many are fighters who received training and weapons from Eritrea and committed heinous human rights violations across several regions of Ethiopia.

The tactic of ‘defame and destroy’ has not worked for the government of Ethiopia in Tigray and Oromia. The Prime Minister would therefore do well to heed US counsel and solve his political problems through dialogue.

By the Ethiopian Cable team