Issue No. 179

Estimating civilian deaths in Tigray
 

Estimating civilian deaths from the devastating two-year Tigray war has proven deeply complex. From June 2021, the Federal Government of Ethiopia’s blockade of Tigray established a near-total information blackout. Journalists and researchers were prevented from accessing Tigray and, within the region, civilians were prevented from accessing the outside world, as they faced shuttered internet and telecommunications. This information blackout frustrated the documentation of combat-related deaths, starvation, and human rights violations in Tigray, leading to a significant variation in civilian death estimates.
 
This dearth of information has made the Ghent University (GU) research into Tigray’s civilian deaths even more critical. GU’s research team on Tigray, led by Professor Jan Nyssen, has recently released new analysis re-evaluating the scale of civilian deaths. Following qualitative research in the region in January 2023, and broader data gathering, the team concluded that the widely-cited Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) and Famine Early Warning Systems (FEWS) overestimated hunger mortality during the conflict.
 
Largely rooted in data from the IPC and FEWS, GU’s previous estimate of Tigray’s civilian deaths had been between 300,000 and 600,000. With greater access to the region and increasing data, GU has since revised its estimates down to between 162,000 and 378,000 total civilian deaths.

In the Dogu’a Tembien district, GU investigated the war’s impact on social coherence and the natural environment, including issues of deforestation, in 10 villages. In January 2023, qualitative research carried out across these villages revealed civilian deaths ranging from those in Atsa from “lack of medicine and medical treatment” to those from airstrikes in Kolal. Eritrean forces in particular were highlighted as responsible for directly killing civilians. In Awulo a villager reported, “Eritrean soldiers killed 14 residents,” while in Gumuara a resident reported that Eritrean soldiers “encountered a priest who was going to the church and they killed him.” Hunger-related deaths also accounted for a significant number of conflict-related deaths in these villages.
 
Except for Aregen and Addilal, all of the villages in which the qualitative research was conducted are small, with only 100-200 households. The stories collected by the researchers are harrowing, but nothing to suggest that there was an overall decimation of the population, i.e. 10% of residents losing their lives. From the sample sites, reported numbers tended to indicate between 2 and 5% of civilians died per location. But this is only a small sample, and GU has noted several caveats to its conclusions based on the January research that largely relied on civilian tallies.
 
First, local administrators previously tallying death tolls may have missed deaths from hunger or inaccessibility to healthcare as these causes could have gone unnoticed. Second, at the height of the federal government’s blockade, many Tigrayan residents fled for settlements in Tigray, for the Amhara region, and even for Eritrea. The civilian death tolls would not necessarily have accounted for deaths while travelling or upon arrival in a new location. In Aregen in the Dogu’a Tembien district, residents reported that some 600 people, roughly 10% of the local population, had fled.
 
The GU research from Dogu’a Tembien also reflects relatively accessible areas in Tigray. The humanitarian situation is thought to have been and to still be worse in the drier low-lying woredas. These were often the sites of the most severe battles, such as Kola Tembien, Weri’i and Zana, and places such as Irob, which is still without humanitarian access. In addition, there is still no information coming from areas remaining under Amhara or Eritrean control. For many in these areas, the war has yet to end. A recent Human Rights Watch report from 1 June revealed ongoing atrocities, including ethnic cleansing, being committed by Amhara and Eritrean forces, particularly in western Tigray.
 
Overall, GU samples have led to an estimate of 2 to 5% civilian deaths of the local population per location, below its earlier estimate of 5 to 10%, which drew heavily on death tolls associated with the different phases of IPC classification. GU has applied a similar correction to their earlier calculation for Tigray, now resulting in an estimated 96,000 to 218,000 famine-related deaths. Adding 30,000 to 100,000 deaths due to lack of healthcare and 36,000 to 60,000 deaths from the direct killing of civilians, from massacres, military bombardment and related attacks, resulted in estimated civilian deaths between 162,000 to 378,000 Tigrayan residents.
 
This updated data and analysis from GU have revealed that the situation in Tigray may not be as bad as initially feared. Still, 162,000 to 378,000 civilian victims in the Tigray region is a vast number over two years. While recent steps taken by the Interim Regional Administration in Tigray and the Federal Government of Ethiopia are of course important to prevent future armed conflict, full documentation of the victims is crucial to begin reconciliation, transitional justice and healing. Understanding the precise scale and nature of civilian deaths is crucial to accountability and justice for Tigray’s survivors