Issue No. 173

Zanzibar talks: Momentum for peace should be sustained
 

The first round of peace talks between the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) and the Ethiopian government in Zanzibar recently ended on 3 May without tangible progress. A statement issued by the Ethiopian government said, "While the talks have been largely constructive, unfortunately, it was not possible to reach an agreement on some issues during this round of the talks," adding that both parties intended to continue negotiations to resolve the conflict. OLA’s own statement echoed Addis's.
 
It was not unexpected that the initial round of talks did not result in significant progress. The discussions centred around preliminary topics intended to lay the groundwork for more meaningful discussions in the future. Facilitated by the Kenyan and Norwegian governments, with IGAD in a supporting role, the atmosphere was described as “encouraging.” It's common for complex negotiations to face setbacks during their initial stages. Hopefully, both parties can regroup and begin anew. If talks are to continue effectively, however, there is a need for greater clarity on the formal mediation process and to designate a lead mediator.
 
These peace talks will be critical in stabilising the region. The OLA insurgency has expanded to large parts of Oromia, and while violence has subsided in recent months, the conflict's impact is still visible. Hundreds of thousands have been displaced, disrupting farming and other local livelihood systems. Oromia's local economy, primarily based on agriculture and agro-processing, is unravelling. The region further requires significant humanitarian support for its displaced population facing water-borne diseases, including cholera.
 
The OLA may be able to sustain a protracted guerrilla campaign, but it lacks the firepower to force a stalemate. The bulk of its poorly-trained fighters still rely on small arms and a diminishing stockpile of aging machineguns and RPGs. They have little defence against Ethiopian National Defense Force's heavy armour, artillery, fighter jets, and drones.
 
Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, an Oromo, is seeking to rebuild his old support base that helped bring him to power in 2018. Making peace with OLA fits with this broader political rebuild. In the wake of the Tigray peace accord, Abiy is also seeking to consolidate peace and restore stability across Ethiopia. He understands that Ethiopia will continue to face instability as long as millions experience the effects of conflict. His administration is cash-strapped, and western creditors consider peace in Tigray and Oromia an essential precondition to funding the federal government.
 
The OLA has a broad political agenda and some unpalatable demands that Addis may find difficult to accommodate. But many are achievable. Afaan Oromo, spoken by over 35 million people, could, for example, be upgraded to one of Ethiopia's national languages. The Oromo are Ethiopia’s largest ethnic group, and many resent Addis Ababa’s history of non-consensual Amharanisation policies. A move toward increasing linguistic and cultural pluralism would benefit Ethiopia and promote greater equality. Another straightforward way for the Abiy administration to build trust and improve the federal government’s relationship with the OLA would be to remove the derogatory label "shene" used to refer to the group.
 
The issue of Addis Ababa’s status is polarising and deeply fraught and will likely feature prominently in future negotiations. Geographically, Addis lies within Oromia. But historically, it has served as the imperial capital and often projected the dominance of the Amhara. Oromo nationalists claim Addis as their own and want the city's Oromo name – “Fiinfiinee” - restored.
 
The OLA must also resist its own potential ethnic chauvinism by merely supplanting Amhara cultural and political dominance with another ethnic hegemony. The capital is big enough for all ethnicities and can be the 'ancestral home' of all ethnic groups. A city claimed as “owned” by one ethnic group runs the risk of destroying social cohesion and fomenting instability. Addis can be best governed as a neutral capital through an elected mayor and a city government. But annexing it to Oromia, as OLA demands, would likely create more problems than it solves.
 
OLA advocates a federal system that confers increased autonomy on the ethnic regions. Acute Oromo grievances over federalism, in fact, acted as a catalyst for the insurgency. Abiy's government has indicated a desire to reconstruct the ethnic federal system, yet the specifics of this plan have not been disclosed.
 
There is no doubt that the two sides are divided over the federalism question. Convergence is not impossible but requires Addis, in particular, to clarify its vision of the state. Although there are disagreements regarding the federal system, they should not necessarily hinder achieving peace. Both parties can temporarily set it aside and focus on other critical matters. Ideally, the best way to address the issue and reach a consensus is through a future national constitutional conference.
 
Although no tangible results have been produced yet, positive steps have been taken in Zanzibar, and both parties should continue to build on the positive progress already made. Clarifying positions on either side and clarifying the structure of future talks should further provide a framework for sustainable peace. If these talks are to succeed fully, the OLA and the federal government should be open to upcoming demands and be ready to make concessions for the country’s benefit.

By the Ethiopian Cable team