Issue No. 165

Published 11 Apr 2023

Amhara unrest and the pitfalls of disarming federal states

Published on 11 Apr 2023 16:54 min

Amhara unrest and the pitfalls of disarming federal states 

Plans by the Ethiopian federal government to demobilise the Amhara Special Forces (ASF) has triggered large-scale violent unrest in northern Ethiopia’s Amhara Region – by some accounts the worst in 5 years. Protests have spread to nearly all major cities in the region. Catholic Relief Services has reported that two aid workers have died in the unrest. Angry residents of towns and villages in the region have barricaded most major roads. Towns like Gondar and Bahir Dar are deserted. There have been reports of multiple heavy clashes between ASF and the Ethiopian National Defence Forces (ENDF) concentrated in the Kobo-Raya area near the border with Tigray. 
 
The ENDF launched an operation to forcibly disarm ASF holdouts on 6 April. ENDF units threw up cordons around ASF camps throughout the region. In most of the camps, ASF units voluntarily surrendered and headed to designated assembly points.
 
ASF holdouts and the ENDF are now engaged on multiple fronts. There is a possibility Fano militia and other groups might join the ‘resistance camp,’ a development that would likely to worsen the situation. 
 
The first clash occurred in the town of Gobeye. ASF who were summoned from Kobo, Waja and southern Tigray refused to give up their arms and started firing on the ENDF. In response, the ENDF started firing back; more than 6 people were killed. The ENDF did manage to disarm the ASF in Gobeye, and things are now more or less stable there. 
 
Other fighting occurred near Debre Tabor. The ENDF tried to enter into an ASF camp near the town and disarm its fighters. But they refused to cooperate and there was a standoff; this temporarily closed the Bahir Dar-Gonder road. After negotiations, the ASF fighters finally agreed to surrender their arms. Some have reported more than 100 ASF  have deserted and joined Fano.
 
Fighting has been at its most intense in the vicinity of Kobo.  A division of the ASF has refused to give up arms near Gondar. At the same time, a faction of the ASF positioned in Lalibela and Sekota mutinied. The ENDF is moving into the area and senior regional leadership is trying to negotiate with them.
 
That a crisis was looming in the Amhara Region has been evident. That it would take a violent turn was predictable. The alliance between the Amhara and the Oromo (referred to as OROMARA) that underpinned Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s coalition had been under strain for over a year over a host of issues. It collapsed entirely following the peace deal signed by the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) and Ethiopia federal government in Pretoria in November 2022. Abiy made relations worse when he failed to endorse the Amhara state’s territorial claim to Western Tigray. In comments Abiymade to parliament earlier this year, he called for dialogue between the two sides, and hinted that parliament may ultimately be required to arbitrate the dispute. 
 
The Prime Minister also ordered the arrest of 1000s of Fano militia and their leaders, further inflaming tensions in Amhara. Attempts to mend relations and talks in Addis Ababa, Bahir Dar and Adama failed to bring Amhara and Oromoelites to common ground. In retaliation, the Amhara Region cut off its supply of teff (a grain that makes the national dishinjera).
 
In recent weeks, the Ethiopian government has been drip-feeding the media about alleged plots to destabilise the country,including Fano militia seeking to infiltrate Addis to carry out assassinations of high-level officials. Check-points now dotthe perimeter of  the city. There is heavy police and army presence on the main roads leading to the capital. Prominent Amhara journalists and academics have been arrested. The consistent message from Addis Ababa is now that the Amhara state constitutes a threat to the federal government. This seems to be aimed at preparing the public psychologically for some type of Tigray War-style ‘law enforcement operation’ in Amhara.
 
The disarmament of the Amhara is popular outside the region. The Oromo and Tigrayans, especially, are likely to relish this moment. Amhara forces have been Abiy’s most violent and zealous enforcers – blamed for many of the atrocities committed in Oromia and Tigray. 
 
The Prime Minister’s push to demobilise ethnic forces and integrate them into the national army may be well-intentioned,but the speed, scale and timing at which it is taking place is certainly questionable. There is reason to believe this could stoke even more tension and instability. Worse, it could foment wider insecurity. 
 
Abiy’s recentralisation agenda is not in doubt. Dismantling statutory and non-statutory ethnic state forces is designed to restore the central government’s monopoly on lethal military force. But there is a flaw in the logic: weakening the periphery does not automatically translate into a strong centre. More crucially, it is not necessarily a ticket to peace and stability. In the absence of local and national political settlements, territorial and resource contests and conflict can become militarised. There are always enough AK47 rifles, ammunition and RPGs to start the next insurrection. Some regional forces are much needed. In the Somali Regional State, the paramilitary special forces, the Liyu, have been instrumental in protecting the region from Al-Shabaab. At a time when Al-Shabaab is building cross-border structures, disarmament of the Liyu could prove disastrous for security.
 
For a country like Ethiopia, two-tier security, with a strong national army and police and robust and well-armed regionalforces, is preferable to the one Abiy envisions. Abiy seems to be going for the quick fix, again. 
 
Well-planned and coordinated disarmament conducted as part of a broader national political settlement is fine. An incoherent, disjointed and rushed process of demobilisation and disarmament will only lead to more problems for Ethiopia.

By the Ethiopian Cable team

To continue reading, create a free account or log in.

Gain unlimited access to all our Editorials. Unlock Full Access to Our Expert Editorials — Trusted Insights, Unlimited Reading.

Create your Sahan account Login

Unlock lifetime access to all our Premium editorial content

You may also be interested in

Issue No. 949
The Unravelling of Somalia's Consociational Order
The Somali Wire

On Tuesday, 14 April, the four-year term of Somalia's federal parliament ended, or rather, it didn't. Villa Somalia's (un)constitutional coup of a year-long term extension for the parliament and president in March remains in effect, leaving the institution in a kind of lingering zombie statehood. It is perhaps a fitting denouement for the 11th parliament, whose degeneration has been so thorough that its formal expiration means little in practice.


18:46 min read 17 Apr
Issue No. 125
After Three Years of War, What Is Left of Sudan?
The Horn Edition

Yesterday, 15 April, marked three years of brutal, grinding warfare between the Sudanese army and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF). Wholly neglected by a fading international community, many grim landmarks have been passed; another genocide in Darfur, the weaponisation of rape and starvation, another famine, or the desecration of Khartoum, El Fasher, and other major cities. And with no ceasefire or settlement in sight, the war has continued to swell, drawing in each neighbouring African country as tussling Middle Eastern powers grapple for the upper hand-- leaving Sudan in tatters.


28:01 min read 16 Apr
Issue No. 948
Somaliland's Maritime Security Dividends
The Somali Wire

As global energy markets reel from the partial shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz and war insurance premiums skyrocket by nearly 4,000%, an unlikely maritime security provider is emerging as a critical stabiliser in one of the world's most vital shipping corridors. The Somaliland Coast Guard, operating from the port city of Berbera, has quietly begun providing maritime escort services, seeking to reduce shipping insurance costs—and consequently, the price of commodities and energy for consumers across the Horn of Africa and beyond.


22:19 min read 15 Apr
Issue No. 327
The Afterlife of Swinging Addis
The Ethiopian Cable

Most nights in a number of dimly lit bars in Addis Ababa, one can hear a vibraphone hum over a syncopated bassline. The sprightly rhythm is unmistakably jazz, but the scales are Ethiopian; pentatonic, looping and melodic. Five decades after its pioneering by visionary musician Mulatu Astatke, Ethio-jazz remains in full swing, with its renaissance from the late 1990s persevering despite tough political and cultural conditions.


20:12 min read 14 Apr
Issue No. 947
Allies Spar in Somalia: What Could Be Driving the Türkiye-Uganda Spat?
The Somali Wire

Over the weekend, a flurry of viral posts on X (formerly Twitter) highly critical of Türkiye by the Ugandan army chief risked tipping the three-way relations between Somalia, Türkiye, and Uganda into a new tailspin. General Muhoozi - the son of Ugandan President Yoweri K. Museveni and the Chief of the Ugandan People's Defence Forces (UPDF) - accused Türkiye of disrespect, threatened to pull troops out of Somalia, and further demanded USD 1 billion in compensation from Ankara. Although the posts were deleted on Sunday, the storm the comments generated has not died down.


16:31 min read 13 Apr
Issue No. 946
The Reckoning: Breakdown of Somalia’s Third Republic
The Somali Wire

The 19th-century Russian novelist Fyodor Dostoevsky wrote in his novel, The Brothers Karamazov: “Above all, do not lie to yourself. A man who lies to himself and listens to his own lie comes to a point where he does not discern any truth either in himself or anywhere around him.” In Somalia today, we are suffering because our head of state has lied to himself so much so, that Dostoevsky had alluded to, he has reached a point where he does not discern any truth either in himself or anywhere around him. However, before we delve into the nature or purpose of the lie and its grave national, regional, and international consequences, a bit of history is warranted on Somalia as a nation-state.


18:55 min read 10 Apr
Issue No. 124
A Trade That Won't Die
The Horn Edition

In September 2025, Feisal Mohammed Ali was arrested for possession and trading in two rhino horns worth USD 63,000. This was not the first time that this smuggler had seen the bars of a Kenyan prison cell. On 22 July 2016, Feisal - described as an “ivory smuggling kingpin” - received a 20-year prison sentence and fined USD 150,000 for dealing 314 pieces of ivory. Weighing over two tonnes, the ivory was estimated to have come from around 120 elephants. Hailed as a turning point in Kenya’s pioneering crackdown on Illegal Wildlife Trade (IWT), Feisal’s incarceration became proof of the country’s commitment to safeguarding its wildlife. This frail pillar came crashing down in August 2018 when Feisal was released following the acquittal of his sentence due to alleged use of tampered evidence by the prosecution.


30:03 min read 09 Apr
Issue No. 945
The Baidoa Electoral Heist - The Turkish Connection
The Somali Wire

On Monday, a politician widely regarded as Ankara’s primary proxy in Somalia was inaugurated as a Member of Parliament (MP) under circumstances that Somali citizens and political observers are denouncing as a brazen institutional theft. This unprecedented case of electoral misconduct occurs in the twilight of the current parliament’s mandate, signaling a deep-seated crisis in legislative integrity.


6:32 min read 08 Apr
Issue No. 326
Ethiopia Grinds to a Halt
The Ethiopian Cable

The sparks from the Middle East's conflagration have set Ethiopia's laboured fuel industry ablaze, and the country is grinding to a halt. Ongoing geopolitical and fiscal shocks emanating from the US/Israel war with Iran—and the spill-over across the Gulf—have left few regions untouched. With no satisfactory end in sight, the decades-old—if creaking—US-underpinned security architectThe sparks from the Middle East's conflagration have set Ethiopia's laboured fuel industry ablaze, and the country is grinding to a halt. Ongoing geopolitical and fiscal shocks emanating from the US/Israel war with Iran—and the spill-over across the Gulf—have left few regions untouched. With no satisfactory end in sight, the decades-old—if creaking—US-underpinned security architecture in the Middle East has been upended, as have the globalised hydrocarbon networks that long served as the financial lifeblood of energy-importing states.


33:50 min read 07 Apr
Scroll