Issue No. 162

Published 30 Mar 2023

The collapse of the SNNPR

Published on 30 Mar 2023 14:58 min

The collapse of the SNNPR
 

At the end of March, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed visited Wolkite, capital of the Gurage zone, hoping to convince residents to end their pursuit of ethnic statehood. Abiy claimed on state media that the discussion was highly productive. Other sources, however, said something different. Abiy claimed that the discussion he had with residents was a good one. He wrote in a statement, “the Gurage are a peace-loving people that address any emerging issues through constructive engagements and dialogue. I am pleased to have listened to the concerns and hopes they expressed in our discussions today.” According to residents, there was neither discussion nor agreement. 
 
This is not the first time a zonal administration has demanded statehood. Since Abiy came to power in 2018, and since the subsequent collapse of EPRDF, Ethiopia has seen the birth of two new regional states. Sidama became the country’s 10th regional state in 2019 and the South West Region became its 11th in 2021. Both split off from the Southern Nations, Nationalities and Peoples’ Region (SNNPR). 
 
Established in the 1995 Ethiopian Constitution, the SNNPR was composed of 5 areas. Formerly lauded as a mosaic of nationalities, the region has become a centre of mayhem and violence in recent years. One of the largest regions in the country is collapsing.
 
The Prime Minister is trying very hard to prevent the Gurage from going down the same path as Sidama and the South West. He reportedly summoned Gurage elders to his office two days before visiting the region. During that meeting, he reportedly told them that if he wanted Gurage to become a region, it would take him less than 5 minutes to do so. However, he was not going to allow that because organizing a new region on the basis of Gurage ethnicity will not benefit the Gurage. 
 
Accompanying Prime Minister Abiy to the Garage zone was Dr. Berhanu Nega—former leader of the Ginbot 7, now leader of the Ethiopian Citizens for Social Justice Party. He is currently serving in Prime Minister Abiy’s cabinet as Minister of Education.  
 
Berhanu Nega, a Gurage himself, has been working hard to dissolve Ethiopia’s ethnically-based federal structure and to ban ethnically-based organisations. He was reportedly one of the main figures behind the idea of dissolving the Ethiopian Peoples’ Revolutionary Democratic Front— a coalition of four ethnically-based regional parties. This succeeded in 2019.
 
Also in 2019, the Sidama people held a referendum for statehood, and the Sidama region officially came into being on 18 June 2020, 7 months later.
 
The SNNPR includes more than 50 ethnic groups. With the establishment of the Sidama region, a number of them, including the Gurage, are now seeking regional autonomy. 
 
The Wolayta, who have historically been in conflict with the Sidama, took their claim to separation from the SNNPR to the streets. They were joined by the Gurage, Gamo, Gofa, South Omo, Gedeo and Konso peoples.
 
Federalism guarantees the right to self-determination and self-government for ethnic groups, as grounded in Article 39 of the Ethiopian Constitution. This includes “the right to self-determination up to secession,” a major point of contention for Ethiopia’s political elites.  
 
The rights of ethnic groups are ensured not only at the regional level but at the zona; and woreda levels as well. Regions, zones, and woredas all manage their own budgets and directly elect their representatives. Under this system of ethnic federalism, many minority groups have enjoyed unprecedented autonomy and recognition; their cultures and languages have flourished.
 
Among Ethiopia’s smaller ethnically-based populations in the SNNPR, the push for statehood poses a threat to the Prime Minister’s plans to centralise power. The ruling Prosperity Party seems committed to breaking apart Ethiopia’s ethnic federal structure and imposing a unitary system on the country. Abiy is backed in this by Amhara elites who see ethnic federalism as a threat to their identity, and an endorsement of ‘tribal politics.’

The Prime Minister is therefore faced with the vexing problem of balancing growing demands for self-determination among Ethiopia’s southern nations with his quest for a more centralised state. If this balance is not managed properly, the chances for state collapse are grave.

By the Ethiopian Cable team

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