Gedo has long served as a useful barometer for the health of relations between Nairobi, Mogadishu, and Addis. Straddling the tri-border Mandera Triangle, the Mareehaan-dominated region of Jubaland has been a key staging post for Al-Shabaab's continued infiltration into Kenya and Ethiopia for years. And as such, both Nairobi and Addis have a vested stake in Jubaland as a security buffer zone against the jihadists, developing close ties with key political actors within Gedo and the southern Federal Member State-- which they helped co-establish in 2013. Over a decade later, with Hassan Sheikh Mohamud back at the helm in Mogadishu, the focus has returned to Gedo, as he has resorted to a well-known destabilising playbook by attempting —and failing —to wrest the Mareehaan into Villa Somalia's orbit. But amid the government's months-long campaign to destabilise Gedo, including seizing Garbahaarey and Luuq from control of Jubaland to carve out Darood tents for its rigged elections, Addis has remained silent-- until now.
It is now official: Somalia’s National Security Adviser (NSA) Hussein Sheikh Ali, aka “Hussein Ma’alin’ has stepped down. On his X (formerly Twitter) handle, Hussein described himself as “former” NSA. On Sunday evening, the Office of the Prime Minister put out a short statement to say Mukhtar Mohammed Hassan has been appointed acting National Security Adviser. Mukhtar is not well-known and the assumption of many is that he will be a placeholder until a suitable replacement is found. Both Hussein and Villa Somalia remain reticent in explaining what exactly happened and why the changes are being made.
Over the weekend, Mahad Salad was returned to head up Somalia's National Intelligence and Security Agency (NISA). After a 14-month break, the Egyptian-trained former spy chief has returned to the position he held between August 2022 and April 2024. The restoration of Salad, who belongs to the Hawiye/ Habar Gidir/ Ayr sub-clan, comes amid twin threats to Villa Somalia-- the serpentine encroachment of Al-Shabaab on Mogadishu and the massing of political opposition in the capital. Historically lenient towards the jihadist group, Salad is unlikely to afford the same generosity to the government's opposition as the head of NISA, as his predecessor did. Simultaneously, the removal of Abdullahi Mohamed Ali 'Sanbaloolshe,' could seriously undermine the ongoing ma'awiisley operations by his Hawaadle sub-clan against Al-Shabaab in Hiiraan, one of the few forces leading the frontline resistance.
Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud's attempts to mimic his predecessor, Mohamed Abdullahi Farmaajo, continue to fragment the country. In late 2019 and early 2020, the disruptive president and his spy chief, Fahad Yasin, deployed hundreds of federal troops and National Intelligence and Security Agency (NISA) operatives to the Gedo region of Jubaland, having been unable to dislodge regional President Ahmed Madoobe from Kimsaayo after his re-election in August 2019. Alongside security forces, cash was poured in to leverage the Mareehaan-dominated districts of Luuq, Dollow, Beled Hawo, Garbaharey and Bardheere away from Madoobe's Ogaadeen-majority administration. Sporadic deadly violence erupted between federal and regional troops as Al-Shabaab expanded and consolidated its presence in Gedo, which has not diminished since.
In a dramatic week for Somalia, two key events signaled the resurgence of Fahad Yasin’s influence and the reactivation of the country’s entrenched deep state. First, a commission led by Prime Minister Roble released its report on the murder of intelligence officer Ikraan Tahliil, effectively absolving the National Intelligence and Security Agency (NISA) of any wrongdoing. Evidence, including CCTV footage and key testimonies, was downplayed or dismissed, leaving many convinced the case was whitewashed. Second, Abdisaid Ali Muse, a close Fahad ally, was shifted from his role as National Security Advisor to Foreign Minister a move seen less as a promotion and more as a reorganization of Villa Somalia’s inner circle. These developments underscore the waning influence of PM Roble, whose promises of justice in the Ikraan case have gone unfulfilled, further eroding his credibility. Meanwhile, speculation persists that Ikraan’s death was linked to sensitive intelligence about Somali military recruits in Eritrea and their alleged deployment to Tigray. With Fahad Yasin back on the political rise, concerns grow over the fairness of Somalia’s electoral process and the future stability of its governance.
The case of Ikraan Tahlil, a pioneering National Intelligence and Security Agency (NISA) cybersecurity analyst, has become both a political flashpoint in Somalia and a symbol of the fragile gains women have made in the country. Recruited in 2017 on merit, Ikraan rose to head NISA’s cybersecurity division an exceptional achievement in a male-dominated field. Her murder has not only sparked a constitutional crisis between President Farmaajo and Prime Minister Roble but also raised deeper questions about the durability of women’s rights in fragile states. Her story echoes recent events in Afghanistan, where the Taliban’s return to power swiftly reversed two decades of progress for women, replacing female-led ministries with male-only leadership and banning most women from public roles. Like the Taliban, Al-Shabaab’s extremist ideology offers no space for women like Ikraan to hold high-ranking positions in the public security sector. The Somali government and its international partners must ensure that any future political settlement with Al-Shabaab protects and advances women’s rights, particularly in sectors where they have historically been underrepresented. Ikraan’s legacy underscores that a peace which sidelines half the population is neither just nor sustainable.
Ikraan Tahlil, a young and dedicated NISA officer, vanished on 26 June 2021, triggering a chain of political events that would plunge Somalia into crisis. Known for her work liaising between NISA and the Banadir Regional Authority, Ikraan’s disappearance was followed by conflicting reports, with the government initially claiming she was abducted and killed by Al-Shabaab an allegation swiftly denied by both her family and the group itself. As public outrage mounted, Prime Minister Mohamed Hussein Roble demanded a transparent investigation, clashing with outgoing President Mohamed Abdullahi Farmaajo and then NISA director Fahad Yasin. Roble’s dismissal of Fahad deepened the standoff, with Farmaajo countering by appointing his own loyalists to key security positions. Ikraan’s family pursued legal action against senior NISA officials, further inflaming tensions. The political rift has since evolved into a constitutional crisis, with the threat of a no-confidence motion against Roble and potential violence looming.
Somalia’s capital, Mogadishu, is once again engulfed in violence, with opposition forces seizing control of large parts of the city. While political attention focuses on President Farmaajo, Prime Minister Roble, and opposition leaders, the man with the most influence over the armed landscape may be NISA Director General Fahad Yasin. Under his leadership, NISA has evolved from an intelligence agency into a militarized force, commanding elite units such as the US-trained Gaashan and Waran, the Eritrean-trained Duufaan, Turkish-trained Gorgor, and Qatari-backed Haram’ad. Fahad’s forces have played a central role in both regional conflicts and recent Mogadishu clashes, including alleged assassination attempts on opposition figures. Despite their specialized training, some units have suffered costly battlefield failures. As other military and police commanders defect, NISA, Gorgor, and Haram’ad remain the core of Farmaajo’s protection though even these could fragment along clan lines.