Over the weekend, Mahad Salad was returned to head up Somalia's National Intelligence and Security Agency (NISA). After a 14-month break, the Egyptian-trained former spy chief has returned to the position he held between August 2022 and April 2024. The restoration of Salad, who belongs to the Hawiye/ Habar Gidir/ Ayr sub-clan, comes amid twin threats to Villa Somalia-- the serpentine encroachment of Al-Shabaab on Mogadishu and the massing of political opposition in the capital. Historically lenient towards the jihadist group, Salad is unlikely to afford the same generosity to the government's opposition as the head of NISA, as his predecessor did. Simultaneously, the removal of Abdullahi Mohamed Ali 'Sanbaloolshe,' could seriously undermine the ongoing ma'awiisley operations by his Hawaadle sub-clan against Al-Shabaab in Hiiraan, one of the few forces leading the frontline resistance.
The NCC That Never Was: HSM Through the Looking Glass Today should have been the second day of Somalia's National Consultative Council (NCC) in Mogadishu-- now postponed until next week, with little hope of achieving either a quorum or meaningful results. In today's editorial, Sahan explores an alternate reality-- one in which a successful NCC meeting offers a way out of Somalia's worsening crisis. With Al-Shabaab edging closer to Mogadishu and the risk of Somalia emulating an Afghanistan-style jihadist takeover ever more plausible, Somali political leaders convened yesterday in Kampala for the first full-fledged National Consultative Council (NCC) meeting to take place in well over two years. At the invitation of Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni, the leaders of Somalia's federal institutions, Federal Member State (FMS) presidents, and an array of former heads of state and government set aside their differences in a last-ditch effort to salvage Somalia's creaking political settlement and forestall an Al-Shabaab triumph.
The NCC That Never Was: HSM Through the Looking Glass Today should have been the second day of Somalia's National Consultative Council (NCC) in Mogadishu-- now postponed until next week, with little hope of achieving either a quorum or meaningful results. In today's editorial, Sahan explores an alternate reality-- one in which a successful NCC meeting offers a way out of Somalia's worsening crisis. With Al-Shabaab edging closer to Mogadishu and the risk of Somalia emulating an Afghanistan-style jihadist takeover ever more plausible, Somali political leaders convened yesterday in Kampala for the first full-fledged National Consultative Council (NCC) meeting to take place in well over two years. At the invitation of Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni, the leaders of Somalia's federal institutions, Federal Member State (FMS) presidents, and an array of former heads of state and government set aside their differences in a last-ditch effort to salvage Somalia's creaking political settlement and forestall an Al-Shabaab triumph.
Kampala Redux as TCCs Assert Control Over the weekend, a video recorded in 2021 began circulating. In it, then-an opposition leader, Hassan Sheikh Mohamud (HSM), warns incumbent President Mohamed Abdullahi Farmaajo that if he failed to negotiate destabilising domestic tensions within the Afisioni Tent, he would end up in Kampala and with foreigners deciding Somalia's future. And that is precisely what happened- Farmaajo was diplomatically frog-marched to Kampala, forced to relinquish control over the political transition and appoint a new PM to oversee the process that returned HSM to Villa Somalia. Fast forward to today, and it is essentially Somalia redux. Having failed to heed his own advice from 2021, HSM travelled to Uganda last week, where African Union peacekeeping troop-contributing countries (TCCs) announced they would assume a leading role in Somalia's political and military affairs. Spearheaded by Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni, the TCC's proposed political mechanism is intended to oversee Somalia's national security portfolio and, between the lines, to advance the domestic reconciliation that Villa Somalia has shunned.
Cheap Talk: No Signs of National Unity A distinct lack of urgency surrounds Somalia's supposed 'emergency national dialogue.' On the eve of Eid, Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud (HSM) reluctantly announced a national dialogue process in the face of collapsing security across the Shabelles and the growing threat to Mogadishu from Al-Shabaab. The Hawiye national opposition, Jubaland President Ahmed Madoobe and others have cautiously welcomed the offer, though they have sought greater clarity on a number of points, not least the scope of discussions. In the week since the announcement, however, Villa Somalia seems to have reverted to 'business as usual', exhibiting the same myopic and unilateral behaviour that precipitated the country's current crisis.
Somalia appears on the brink of another seismic political change. Under growing political strain and losing ground to a resurgent Al-Shabaab, the possibility of Mogadishu's fall or negotiated capitulation to the jihadists in the coming months continues to grow. With Al-Shabaab rapidly taking advantage of the growing political chaos, Somalia's transitional federal project is more imperilled than ever. The country's regression from a fragile state to a failing one seems increasingly inevitable.
Over the weekend, Somalia's federal government and Ethiopia finally agreed to the composition and deployment of Ethiopian National Defence Forces (ENDF) in Somalia, both bilaterally and under the African Union Support and Stabilisation Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM) auspices. In a signing ceremony in Mogadishu on Saturday, Ethiopia's spy chief, Redwan Hussein, and ENDF Chief of Staff Berhanu Jula signed a Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA) with their Somali counterparts, which is expected to regulate the operational mandate of Ethiopian forces moving forward.