Issue No. 977

The Politics of 'Hiiraan State': The Hawaadle Discontent

Plans are intensifying within Hiiraan to establish an autonomous "Hiiraan State." This development reflects deep-seated regional and clan cleavages reasserting themselves in local politics, set against the backdrop of a stalled federal process, a breakdown in talks between President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud (HSM) and the opposition Somalia Future Council (SFC), and an unravelling Somali federation. The country has rarely been so deeply fragmented; worse still, this process of re-fragmentation is now spreading into the Hawiye heartland, a core constituency of the incumbent government. Puntland and Jubaland have already functionally ceased to participate in the federation. Meanwhile, Hiiraan—a region currently integrated into the Hirshabelle federal state—seeks to distance itself from Mogadishu.

This friction has manifested in overt armed mobilisation over the past two weeks. The Hawaadle paramount clan chief, Ugaas Yusuf Ugaas Hassan Ugaas Khalif, has been operating out of Buulo Buurte to solicit resources and recruit fighting-age men. This effort culminated in a significant show of force featuring hundreds of armed combatants and dozens of weaponised Toyota Land Cruiser pickups. 

The strategic intent behind this deployment is to signal to the federal government in Mogadishu that the Hawaadle will neither capitulate to external pressure nor accept a compromised electoral process.

The Hawaadle discontent is both serious and deeply rooted. Local clan leaders are debating the creation of their own autonomous region in protest against Mogadishu’s coercive recentralisation of the state and the perceived dominance of the Abgaal clan in both national and regional politics. 

Having led the uprising against Al-Shabaab, the Hawaadle sustained heavy casualties during the Ma'awiisley campaign, only to subsequently find themselves politically marginalised. Their prominent leaders, from Ali Jeyte to Sanbaloolshe, have routinely been instrumentalised and then discarded by federal authorities.

Hirshabelle vote

Today, 30 September, marked the scheduled date for the regional elections. Initially, Mogadishu appeared willing to ensure a competitive contest for the regional presidency, seeking to avoid a repetition of the Baidoa scenario, where a controlled electoral outcome generated severe division and stoked local rebellion. The incumbent president of Hirshabelle, Ali Gudlaawe, has historically lacked broad popularity in Hiiraan and was not the initial choice for Villa Somalia. Indeed, political analysts assumed that Hassan Sheikh Mohamud preferred to install his relative and former Minister of Petroleum, Abdirizak Omar Mohamed.

However, unverified reports suggest that Gudlaawe has managed to regain the favour of Villa Somalia. Adding insult to local injury, federal authorities are now backing the unpopular incumbent for another term, after he allegedly used approximately USD 16 million to secure the endorsement of the ruling Justice and Solidarity Party (JSP) ticket.

This regional crisis is the direct product of a broader systemic failure. Hassan Sheikh’s overarching strategy to project state authority and expand federal influence beyond Mogadishu via the "One Person, One Vote" (OPOV) framework is faltering. 

In South West State, Baidoa is aflame as localised insurgency expands and political polarisation escalates. A strikingly similar dynamic is playing out in Galmudug, where a controversial vote intended to install HSM’s close business associate and political ally, Libaan Shuluq, was recently annulled by the Supreme Court following credible reports of systemic manipulation and egregious electoral irregularities. Yet, this widespread disarray has failed to trigger a strategic reassessment within Villa Somalia; instead, it has merely galvanised the presidency's instinct to double down and stay its coercive course.

Sanbaloolshe

Former NISA Director General Sanbaloolshe serves as the prime mover behind this brewing rebellion in Hiiraan. Hailing from the powerful Ali Madaxweyne sub-clan, Sanbaloolshe is credited with mobilising thousands of fighters against Al-Shabaab—an achievement that initially endeared him to Mogadishu. Consequently, he was elevated into Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s inner circle and appointed chief of the state intelligence agency. However, he proved ill-suited for the sycophantic political culture surrounding the presidency. Independent-minded and increasingly alienated, Sanbaloolshe was soon sidelined as key strategic decisions on Hiiraan and Galmudug were outsourced to freelance political brokers and mafia-type figures like Libaan Shuluq. All the while, HSM continued to placate Sanbaloolshe with hollow assurances that he remained Villa Somalia's preferred candidate for the regional presidency in Jowhar.

Today, Sanbaloolshe’s camp calculates that an overt display of discontent and the threat of an armed response will deter Villa Somalia from pushing forward with Gudlaawe’s installation. Yet, such calculations may dangerously misread the incumbent president’s political calculus. In recent months, Hassan Sheikh has demonstrated a ruthless streak and would likely not hesitate to deploy federal force to crush a Hawaadle rebellion in Hiiraan—even if doing so risks severely undermining his already fragile support base within the broader Hawiye clan.

Mogadishu’s response

Villa Somalia has actively manoeuvred over the last 24 hours to contain the Hawaadle insurrection, modifying its strategy to install Hirshabelle President Ali Gudlaawe by offering the state's running-mate position to Ali Jeyte, the former governor of Hiiraan and Ma'wiisley leader, alongside additional political incentives. Latest reports indicate that Ugaas Yusuf, the Hawaadle traditional clan leader, is reassessing his stance; this shift is driven not only by the political concessions offered by the presidency but also by a strategic desire to avert a local escalation that could mirror the current political violence in Baidoa.

Ultimately, the brewing discontent within the Hawaadle clan is far too deep-seated to be dismissed or managed through political subterfuge and modest incentives. If Villa Somalia mischaracterises this legitimate regional grievance as mere insubordination and resorts to heavy-handed military force to crush it, the federal government risks igniting a dangerous and highly destabilising conflict within the Hawiye heartland itself. Rather than pushing a fragile territory over the brink, the far more prudent path for Villa Somalia would be to pause the scheduled elections in Jowhar. By halting the current trajectory, genuinely listening to Hawaadle leaders, and committing to a transparent, level playing field for future contests, Hassan Sheikh Mohamud can still avert a broader civil fracture and salvage the credibility of the federal project.