Issue No. 738

Pact for the Future— of Somalia

As the 79th gathering of the UN General Assembly (UNGA) concludes in New York, Somalia is gearing up for its first stint as a non-permanent member of the UN Security Council since 1972. Last week, during the annual summit and despite opposition from Russia, the UNGA adopted an ambitious document that is intended to refresh and renew the world's predominant multilateral. With armed conflict proliferating, an intensifying climate crisis, and an increasingly multi-polar world, the UN has come under heavy criticism for its stasis and inability to reign in wayward actors. Entitled "Pact for the Future," the document begins by calling this a moment of "profound global transformation," noting that people are suffering from poverty, hunger, disease, armed conflict, terrorism, displacement, inequality, and climate change, among other threats. 

While Somalia's representatives at the UNGA in New York, including PM Hamza Abdi Barre, were largely focused on shoring up their diplomatic campaign against Ethiopia, they, and others, would do well to consider the Pact in full. The Pact has 5 principal areas-- all of which are relevant to Somalia-- (1) sustainable development and development financing; (2) international peace and security; (3) science, technology, innovation and digital cooperation; (4) youth and future generations; and (5) transforming global governance. While all of these require fresh, deep and collaborative attention, the Pact primarily rests on existing principles, like the Sustainable Development Goals of 2015. It has further been criticised for lacking detail in its implementation outlook, with plenty of rhetoric and far less substance.

However, there are several areas in which the Pact has justifiably emerged more forceful and persistent. The first of these is the rights of women and girls. The lengthy document affirms support for the meaningful participation of women in all areas of society, noting that sustainable peace and security are unachievable without their involvement. Other areas are also emphasised, including committing signatories to respect human rights, tackle gender-based violence, and remove barriers to gender equality. 

In Somalia, progress on women's rights and safety remains lacklustre at best, with over 1 million women and girls estimated to be without adequate shelter and protection this year. With displacement continuing to rise, largely driven by armed conflict and climatic shocks, forced marriages too have increased as families struggle to survive. In the underfunded, overcrowded informal displacement camps dotted across Somalia, gender-based violence remains a serious concern. And the enrollment rate for girls in primary school is just 30-40%, varying by region and intensity of armed conflict.

With Somalia being one of the country's most climate-vulnerable countries, this is also relevant. Cyclical drought and flooding have decimated the pastoralist way of life, and some 2.4 million Somalis were displaced due to climate events as of early 2024. Heavy rains and flash floods displaced tens of thousands more in recent months, while an imminent drought forecast by international organisations is likely to drive further conflict and displacement. The Pact acknowledges that developing countries face the impact of the climate crisis "disproportionately."

Another concern centres on the rights and needs of youth. Signatories of the Pact are committing to "take concrete voluntary measures to increase the inclusive representation of youth in decision-making at all levels in prevention and the resolution of conflict." The document emphasises its commitment to bringing youth into key decision-making areas within the UN as well, and highlights particular issues around jobs and education facing them. According to World Bank estimates, youth unemployment in Somalia stands at around 67%, though this could be even higher. Consequently, many young Somalis are forced to rely on informal employment or resort to emigration and are made susceptible to participation in extremist groups.

The final focus pertains to peace and armed conflict, including re-commitment to "combating illicit financial flows," recognition of "the devastating impact of armed conflict on civilians, civilian infrastructure and cultural heritage," and reaffirmation of "international humanitarian law and international human rights law, and to granting humanitarian access." Reforming the stagnant Security Council is one of the principal elements of the accord. Of particular importance for Somalia, the Pact acknowledges that "peace operations can only succeed when political solutions to conflicts are actively pursued" and that they should be "anchored in and guided by political strategies, deployed with clear, sequenced and prioritised mandates that are realistic and achievable, exit strategies and viable transition plans." This comes at an apt moment considering the dangerous furore surrounding the future and makeup of the African Union peacekeeping mission in Somalia.

While such guiding principles and commitments are essential to planning pragmatic steps forward, they are, after all, only words, and the actions cited in the Pact for the Future are little more than a reiteration of what has not been accomplished. This includes-- investing in the capacity to respond to future global challenges; using evidence-based planning to mitigate risks; ensuring that the most vulnerable do not bear disproportionate costs and burdens of mitigation, adaptation, restoration and resilience-building; undertaking a whole-of-government approach to coordination, including at national and local levels; and promoting a whole-of-society approach. And it is one thing to recognise the litany of dangers facing the world, and it is quite another thing to carry out what is needed to tackle them. 

In recent years, the post-World War II multilateral system has waned once again and faces rising pressure from several angles, not least increasing polarity and rising armed conflict. The Pact for the Future has several important elements within it, but it will be no panacea for the myriad political, social, and security challenges facing Somalia and the Horn of Africa. As Somalia steps up to a seat on the UN Security Council in 2025, its representatives, and all those in the UNGA, would do well to remember and recommit to the rights of women and girls, the natural environment, the rights and needs of youth, and the importance of combining political with security solutions in the pursuit of peace. It is even more crucial that the means by which to actualise these commitments receive equal attention.

By the Somali Wire team