Issue No 632

Deni re-elected as Puntland President

 Today, 8 January 2024, Puntland MPs went to the polls. After months of political wrangling and sporadic violence, Somalia's oldest Federal Member State (FMS) has re-elected Said Abdullahi Deni for a second term. Forecasted to be a tight race, the incumbent leader received 35 votes from the 66 regional MPs in the first round, 40 in the second and 45 in the third. Deni's closest contender, Guled Salah, received the backing of 21 MPs in the final third round. Overshadowed by the controversial Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) between Ethiopia and Somaliland in recent days, the election will undoubtedly have a major bearing on Somalia's federal and constitutional trajectory in 2024 and beyond.
 
Several presidential candidates have already congratulated Deni on his re-election, including former Foreign Minister Amhed Awad, who won the support of four regional MPs in the first round. A total of 11 candidates vied for the presidency, with over half believed to be generally supportive of Villa Somalia, including the former Foreign Minister Abshir Omar Huruse and former Puntland Finance Minister Hassan Shire Abgal. Several of the presidential candidates were also affiliated with the Salafi Islamist group Al-Itihaad Al-Islaam (AIAI).
 
Deni ran a long campaign emphasising Puntland's independence from Mogadishu and his 'thwarted' democratic agenda for the FMS. Indeed, much of Deni's campaign was focused on his opposition to the traditional elder elections that have now swept him to power for a second term (2024-2029). In the run-up to the election, Deni also played on concerns of Puntland within the federal system and Provisional Constitution, with the unratified and controversial National Consultative Council (NCC) constitutional proposals casting a long shadow in northern Somalia.
 
The immediate run-up to the election had also been complicated by the presence of the neighbouring SSC-Khaatumo administration and whether SSC representatives should elect a Puntland president. Several politicians, such as regional Vice President Ahmed Karash, as well as presidential contenders, argued that the traditional election should be held without the 17 SSC MPs. Traditional elders from elsewhere in Puntland also differed over their inclusion. Eventually, on 4 December and just four days before the vote, Puntland officials and Dhulbahante politicians confirmed that all 66 MPs would vote.
 
Deni's eventual easy re-election will undoubtedly chafe with Villa Somalia. Relations between Deni and Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud (HSM) badly soured last year following the withdrawal of the Puntland President from the NCC and subsequent criticism of its constitutional amendments. Behind closed doors, Villa Somalia had heavily invested in today's indirect election, keen to install an ally more supportive of HSM's constitutional agenda. But Puntland remains the most influential FMS in Somalia by some distance, and the re-election of Deni may now force Villa Somalia to make peace with its president.
 
Villa Somalia was not the only national player that sought to steer these elections, however. Former Somali President Mohamed Abdullahi Farmaajo's Nabad and Nolol (N&N) coalition had thrown its weight behind Guled Salah, a former Chairman of the Transitional Puntland Electoral Commission. The N&N coalition, somewhat dormant following Farmaajo's bitter loss in 2022, is clearly on manoeuvres again. N&N operatives were reported to be pouring in financial resources and strategic support on the 66 MPs to increase Salah's chance of victory. A victory for Salah would have secured the coalition a key post ahead of federal elections next year. While Salah may not have triumphed, he came in a respectable second place that will not prove fatal to any future political aspirations.
 
An independent and assertive Puntland has proven critical to curbing the worst excesses of Mogadishu in the past. During Mohamed Abdullahi Farmaajo's chequered tenure, Deni's Puntland was central in preventing the country's autocratic slide. And in recent months, Deni has similarly sought to push back against the NCC proposals that he perceives as outside of the executive body's remit and unconstitutional. Deni's re-election will likely embolden the generally popular regional president to resist Villa Somalia's constitutional campaign and push his own agenda to 'democratise' the FMS internally.
 
But the re-elected president is not without his critics. Like many politicians, Deni sought to wield the advantages of incumbency during the election campaign. In December 2023, controversy briefly erupted when he appointed a new committee to resolve emerging electoral disputes. And the political machinations of recent months have proven distracting for the most important FMS administration in Somalia, with governance often appearing sidelined in favour of campaigning.
 
The dust is far from settled, but a bruising and occasionally violent campaign is over. Every presidential candidate has signed a waiver that they will not contest the outcome of today's vote, though this may not prevent ongoing rumblings surrounding the eventual inclusion of the 17 SSC MPs. Reaching across the divide to many capable opposition politicians in Puntland would be one positive step the new administration could take in the aftermath of the vote. A return to serious governance and an end to months of divisive campaigning will be welcomed by many in northern Somalia.

By the Somali Wire team