Issue No 619

Flooding and financing in Somalia
 

The heavy rains in Somalia continue unabated. Accentuated by the El Nino weather phenomenon, the unparalleled flooding is causing significant destruction across swathes of the country, particularly along the Shabelle and Juba valleys. The death toll has risen to nearly 100, and over 600,000 individuals have been displaced from their homes. Somalia's National Disaster Management Agency (SoDMA) has called it one of the most severe natural disasters in decades. Communities already grappling with political and economic instability now face an even more precarious situation.
 
The past week alone has seen the number of those displaced nearly double, and Somali politicians and humanitarian workers have warned that worse is still to come, with significant rainfall predicted in the coming days. Thousands have been stranded by the flooding, including 2,400 in Luuq town after the Juba River broke its banks. Meanwhile, in Beledweyne, there have been reports of families trapped in their homes amid surging waters that have covered as much as 90% of the city.
 
Flooding is compounding the deep humanitarian crises facing Somalia. Access to uncontaminated water and good sanitation has plummeted, causing a steep rise in waterborne diseases like cholera. Pollution of water sources will take time to undo, and cholera numbers are already 56% above the three-year average, placing yet more pressure on an overwhelmed healthcare system.
 
Until the water recedes and the damage can be accounted for, estimating the full impact of the flooding will be difficult. It is clear, however, that a brutal toll has been inflicted on agricultural-dependent communities. Years of drought had badly degraded soil quality, making once-arable land susceptible to flash flooding. When crops are decimated, it not only results in financial hardships but also exacerbates poverty and amplifies food insecurity. The economic disruption cascades within communities, disrupting social frameworks. The latest OCHA report on 17 November reveals that 4.3 million people in Somalia are now expected to face "crisis-level hunger or worse" by 2023's end.
 
Urban areas are also facing immense strain, particularly those along the Juba and Shabelle Rivers. While Mogadishu has been largely insulated from the worst of the heavy rain's effects, others like Beledweyne haven't. Critical infrastructure is collapsing, including the key Buurdhuubo bridge connecting the Gedo region to Baidoa and Mogadishu. The fresh round of displacement from flooding is increasing pressure on limited resources in the internally displaced person (IDP) camps on the edges of towns and cities. Access to these resources has become even more uncertain, particularly for those living in Al-Shabaab-controlled territory.
 
Successive administrations, including the current Ministry of Environment and Climate Change, led by Khadija Mohamed Almakhzoumi, have sought to lay out longer-term adaptive plans for Somalia. Recently, the Somali government allocated USD 10 million towards preventing desertification as part of the Great Green Wall Initiative. President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud's visit to London also brought the promise of GBP 100 million in climate adaptive funding and development from the UK.
 
These funds are critical to support Somalia's adaptation and mitigating programmes for an ever-warmer world. But the history of foreign aid and assistance in Somalia has been fraught, routinely favouring certain clans as well as fostering a dependency that the country’s elite have become accustomed to. Meanwhile, the unequal distribution of aid has created openings for armed groups like Al-Shabaab to exploit discontent.
 
The UK's recent pledge notwithstanding, there still appears to be limited appetite for wealthier nations to seriously invest in climate financing in the Global South, particularly Sub-Saharan Africa. Between 2020 and 2030, Africa is estimated to need USD 2.8 trillion in financing to adequately respond to the climate crisis. Current climate finance flows to Africa stand at just USD 30 billion annually.
 
The imminent COP28 in Dubai will offer another opportunity for countries to push for urgently needed financing and humanitarian support. Expectations are low, though, with the summit having to compete with the noise of armed conflict in Gaza, the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and the rumbling competition between China and the US.
 
While there's general support for providing humanitarian assistance in the face of natural disasters, it's crucial to question what types of aid are most likely to support the whole of Somalia and which might exacerbate conflicts. When the flood waters recede and with climate financing trickling into Somalia, humanitarian organisations and governments should be careful not to reinforce deep-set inequalities that have driven years of instability.