Issue No 618

Reopening Parliament and the NCC
 

Senate Speaker Abdi Hashi Abdullahi has set 25 November 2023 for the opening of the 4th session of Somalia’s Parliament. While the agenda has not yet been disclosed for the bicameral session, it is already clear which topic will dominate– the sweeping proposals by the National Consultative Council (NCC) put forward in May 2023. Last weekend, political jockeying and public disagreements over the proposals intensified. While the debate has so far been largely cordial, major divisions remain over the most extensive proposed overhaul to the Provisional Constitution since its creation.
 
Despite speculation that President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud (HSM) might leave room for manoeuvre, he reiterated strong support for the NCC proposals in a meeting with his cabinet last week. On 13 November, HSM told ministers to back the agreement or resign. Galmudug President Ahmed Abdi Karie 'QoorQoor' and South West State President Abdiaziz Laftagareen, both supporters of the NCC agreement, have since travelled to Mogadishu to rally their respective regional MPs to support the deal.
 
But over the weekend, several other politicians and parliamentarians publicly slammed the proposals. On 19 November, Mursal Khaliif, an MP from Gedo, warned that Somalia has not undergone a "full and effective reconciliation to pave the way for the centralisation of power," and a "divisive overhaul" might undermine the offensive against Al-Shabaab. The Special Presidential Envoy for Drought, Adbirahman Abdishakur, remarked that "Somalia's initial attempt at a presidential system resulted in the collapse of the state," while former Somali Prime Minister Omar Sharmarke urged Somalia’s parliamentarians to reject the proposals.
 
Several apparent contradictions, and complications, in the NCC proposals are causing particular alarm. While nothing is inherently wrong with a proportional representation closed-list electoral model or a presidential system, an arbitrary limit to the number of political parties and centralisation of power by abolishing the position of Prime Minister is of great concern to many. Only two parties are meant to be formed through a procedure, yet unclear, in local council elections in June 2024– a wildly ambitious timeline. Leaving aside the question of the ideological make-up of these yet-to-be-formed parties, conducting a one-person, one-vote (OPOV) election across an unstable country in 8 months is simply unfathomable.
 
Moreover, every regional president, barring Deni, is using the NCC proposals to push for their own term extensions. This is stoking political conflict in several Federal Member States (FMS), particularly South West State. Once-divided political opposition groups are increasingly agitating for regional presidential elections by the end of 2023 or early 2024. Perceptions matter; the sense that the NCC proposals were not developed with the country’s best interests in mind, but rather to prop up unpopular FMS leaders, is proving corrosive.
 
As the battle lines are drawn in anticipation of the federal parliament reopening, changes at the executive level are moving ahead. After months of separation, Puntland President Said Abdullahi Deni has signalled his willingness to meet with both Puntland’s opposition and Villa Somalia. Still, it appears that Deni has offered dialogue, not necessarily negotiations, with Puntland’s opposition over his controversial proposed overhaul of the region’s voting system.
 
Villa Somalia could yet serve as a moderating influence on Deni; any major changes to the Provisional Constitution will need the input of Somalia's oldest and most stable FMS. But Deni and the NCC may soon find themselves in a bind. Puntland could be thrown into further chaos if Deni tries to align the regional presidential election with NCC proposals in late 2024. But if Puntland elections are held in January, or even February 2024 as the Puntland Electoral Commission has proposed, this could increase pressure on those, like SWS President Laftagareen, who seek to delay regional presidential elections.
 
Yet as Deni’s self-imposed exile from the NCC appears to be coming to an end, the political crisis in Puntland could be reaching another flash point. Over the weekend, over a dozen Puntland Maritime Police Force vehicles loyal to Deni rolled into Garowe from Bosasso. Videos circulating online appeared to show international aid workers leaving the city, and tension in Garowe was palpable ahead of another important week in Puntland. The sooner genuine and concerted negotiations between the region’s political opposition coalition and Deni’s supporters can occur, particularly over the electoral timeline, the better.
 
Somalia’s 4.5 clan system and the incomplete Provisional Constitution are far from perfect. But universal suffrage and the realisation of democracy in Somalia cannot be achieved through controversial, potentially divisive and unfinished proposals. Thankfully, according to HSM, Somalia's parliament will still have the opportunity to debate and amend the NCC proposals as they see fit. But the Parliament is not the only body that needs to ratify them. Article 132 of the Provisional Constitution stipulates that the legislature of every Federal Member State must provide their support. It is clear that every single aspect of the NCC proposals is a massive undertaking in itself. Significant political opposition, a lack of clarity, and accusations of politicians offering their support only to extend their terms in office threaten to undo them. This next session of the federal Parliament promises to be the most important in years