Issue No 615

Mass displacement in Somalia and beyond
 

Just a year after the worst drought in decades ravaged the country, Somalia now faces a deluge of floods and torrential rains driven by the El Nino weather phenomenon. The impact is particularly intense in southern Somalia, with over 100,000 people already being forced from their homes, and dozens killed. In Luuq town in the Gedo region, 2,400 people have been cut off by floodwater after the Juba River broke its banks. On 8 November, Somalia's National Disaster Management Agency (SoDMA) called the flooding the worst in "decades" and declared a humanitarian emergency. With the heavy rains expected to continue in the coming weeks, the crisis will only intensify.
 
Years of extreme drought had displaced thousands from rural Somalia into the sprawling IDP camps on the edge of major cities like Mogadishu and Baidoa. Many in these camps now face the brunt of the current flooding, with photos of IDP tents in Baidoa submerged in water circulating on social media. The total displaced in Somalia has surpassed 4 million and is expected to climb further as the heavy rains continue and Phase II of the current military offensive begins in South West State and Jubaland.
 
But Somalia is far from alone in confronting mass displacement driven by climatic shocks and conflict. According to United Nations Refugee Agency figures, 44 million people in sub-Saharan Africa are currently displaced, up from 38.3 million at the end of 2021. Most are IDPs, with Africa hosting three-quarters of all new internal displacements. Vast refugee camps are also present in Ethiopia, Kenya, and South Sudan.
 
Armed conflict, economic push-pull factors, and climatic shocks remain the main drivers of migration and displacement, and all are rising. In the past year, displacement from armed conflict across the continent has rapidly grown, with 3.2 million Africans displaced from armed conflict in 2022 alone, representing a 13% increase from 2021. It also continues the year-on-year increase in displacement since 2011.
 
The 14 African states experiencing the highest numbers of forcibly displaced people are all riven by armed conflict, including three countries in the Greater Horn of Africa-- Sudan, Somalia, and Ethiopia. Twelve of these countries also trend towards authoritarian governance. This is no coincidence; severe and undemocratic responses to insurgent groups have become the de facto response across the Sahel and elsewhere. There has been little suggestion, however, that the new, Russian-backed regimes in Mali and Burkina Faso are better equipped to quell Islamist insurgencies and ethnic militias than their predecessors.
 
Amid the mass upheaval and displacement, the scapegoating of refugees and migrants has become worryingly commonplace. In the theatre of blame, Western and African elites have mastered the art of diverting from their own failures. In October 2023, UK Home Secretary Suella Braverman came under fire for attacking the UN Refugee Convention and claiming that "any attempt to reform the refugee convention will see you smeared as anti-refugee," or branded "racist or illiberal." But xenophobic sentiment is not just the preserve of the powerful. In South Africa, for instance, the anti-migrant vigilante organisation Operation Dudula, 'force out' in Zulu, has registered as a political party and plans to contest the country's 2024 elections.
 
Although the UN issued a rebuke, Braverman's statement represents a growing consensus among certain governments. As our world slides further into ecological disaster and armed conflict proliferates, so grows the rhetoric that the nation-state needs fortification against outsiders. It seemingly matters to few that there are only a handful of nations not founded or built by 'foreigners.'
 
Back in Somalia, a recent UN report registered a 39% increase in forced displacement in the past year, partly due to increased insecurity. Thankfully though, there appears to be little appetite for the autocratic methods Sahelian governments employ to respond to Al-Shabaab. Nor have Somali politicians fully embraced the exclusionary rhetoric and demonisation of IDPs and migrants that is now commonplace in other countries. Massive structural inequalities, however, still plague their daily existence.
 
The country is clearly not equipped to deal with yet another episode of mass displacement driven by the current flooding. It is also clear that beyond the immediate humanitarian support, a rethink of Somalia's IDP response is required. Reimagining how urban IDPs can be integrated into cities, and better responding to the needs of IDP minorities, women, youth, and others would go some way in dulling cyclical climate shocks and tensions emerging from mass displacement. Once the floodwater has retreated, international partners and Somalia's government should prioritise livelihood diversification and integration to lessen Somalia's humanitarian needs and support these vulnerable communities.