Issue No 602

Bracing for El Niño 

El Niño is coming. The climate pattern that sees the atypical warming in the eastern Pacific Ocean is expected to bring heavier-than-usual rainfall to flood-prone Somalia in the coming weeks. On 5 October, intense rain in Baidoa triggered flooding that swept through the internally displaced persons (IDP) camp that houses over 500,000 people. Meanwhile, in Mahaday, local media reported the Shabelle River breaking its banks, swallowing nearby farmland. Between October and December 2023, severe flooding is all but certain and will compound the immense humanitarian pressures the country is facing.
 
The regional body IGAD's Climate Prediction and Applications Centre has said there are "high chances of wetter-than-usual conditions across most parts of the Greater Horn of Africa." It will be most keenly felt in Somalia. UNICEF has warned that this year's rare "super El Niño" will likely affect 1.2 million people, and could displace over 600,000 children. According to the South West State Ministry of Humanitarian Management, 107,000 people have already been impacted by the heavy rains, including over 86,700 displaced people living in 136 displacement sites.
 
Cyclical flooding is common in Somalia, and it is getting worse. Every year, flood waters wash away ever-larger tracts of farmland, and swamp villages and towns. Increasing demand for water has driven communities to encroach on river systems and flood plains. The subsequent deforestation that has left long stretches of the Shabelle River entirely empty of vegetation is compounding the dangers of flash flooding. In May 2023, a devastating flood along the Shabelle River displaced a quarter of a million people.
 
This worsening combination of drought and flooding due to climate change is displacing millions across Somalia into the sprawling IDP camps on the edges of cities concentrated along the Shabelle and Juba valleys. These settlements, however, are often poorly managed and encroach onto flood plains that the communities were initially displaced from. Many of those living on these plains simply have nowhere else to go.
 
In recent weeks, the Food and Agricultural Organisation (FAO) has started a live update of the flood situation using high-resolution satellite imagery. The Somalia Water and Land Information Management Project is designed to provide real-time data on river breakage points and overflows. If used properly, this should prove immensely useful for the Somalia Disaster Management Agency (SoDMA) to alert communities of imminent flooding on the flood plains and those with farmlands close to rivers.
 
The El Niño floods are certain to intensify the humanitarian strain on Somalia. The country narrowly avoided slipping into famine earlier this year, but the overall situation is far from improved. Some 8.3 million people are now dependent on food aid, and 1.5m children are severely malnourished. Drought followed by flooding undermines agricultural innovation needed to wean the country off livestock-based livelihoods. Renewed displacement, disruption of agricultural season and infrastructure damage, including washing away roads and bridges, will all worsen the humanitarian situation. Humanitarian aid often fails to reach communities in Al-Shabaab-held territory and contested areas– the flooding may make it impossible.
 
Thankfully, Somali officials are aware of the growing risks and have been increasingly warning in recent weeks of the imminent threat of El Niño. On Saturday 7 October, Prime Minister Hamza Barre visited SoDMA in Mogadishu to hear a briefing on the state of national preparedness. Flood defences in some towns along the river banks have helped. In Beledweyne, a project was recently completed to shore up existing defences along the Shabelle River. However, the country lacks the expertise to comprehensively harvest water and redesign river systems.
 
There have been repeated calls for developing flood mitigation measures and policies to improve water resource management in Somalia in recent years. Strategic thinking on minimising the disruptive impact of flooding and creating systems of harvesting and conserving flood water is needed more urgently than ever. One creative idea being tested in Kenya's arid lands is using underground pipelines to direct away flood waters from settlements and pump them into reservoirs. These innovative interventions, however, require significant resources and superior knowledge of water engineering.
 
El Niño is likely to have a security and military impact too. The Somali National Army (SNA), supported by local clan fighters, plans to push into the interior of the riverine belts of Shabelle and Juba. Heavy rainfall and floods, however, favour the nimble and make it difficult for the army to move its heavy equipment and mechanised divisions. SNA's reduced mobility will work to the advantage of Al-Shabaab. Sustaining complex supply lines in hostile territory is difficult enough, let alone facing the prospect of heavy flooding.
 
Somalia is facing the sharp end of a warmer, wetter world. Thousands displaced by drought will be flooded in their IDP camps in the coming weeks. Greater humanitarian support is urgently needed to support them, but strategic planning is long overdue. The current model of displacement and support is unsustainable, particularly as the once-in-a-century weather patterns, like the imminent "super El Niño," become a regular occurrence

By the Somali Wire team