Issue No. 563

Al-Shabaab’s campaign against Kenya
 

After an almost 8-month lull, Al-Shabaab launched a deadly attack in Mandera County, Kenya, on 2 June 2023. Since then, a worrying spate of Improvised Explosive Device (IED) attacks, including ambushes, particularly targeting Kenyan security forces, have left dozens dead. Against a backdrop of delayed operations against Al-Shabaab (AS) in Somalia, these attacks point to the increasing potency of the militant group along the Kenya-Somalia border.
 
On 2 June 2023, suspected Al-Shabaab militants launched Rocket-Propelled Grenades (RPGs) at a vehicle carrying Kenyan security officers on patrol along the Wargadud-Elele-Takaba Road in Mandera County, which neighbours Somalia. Two Kenyan security officers were killed. Other recent IED attacks have seen 6 police officers on patrol killed after their vehicle hit an IED in Bodhei on 13 June. Just one day before, Ethiopia’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs claimed the Ethiopian National Defence Force (ENDF) had neutralised suicide bombers in an attack on Dollow town along the Mandera Triangle – the cross-border area between Kenya, Ethiopia, and Somalia.
 
Civilians have also been targeted. In recent weeks, Al-Shabaab has reportedly stopped buses in Wajir County to check whether passengers were ethnic Somalis. And during a search in the Mlima wa Faru area following an IED attack on 18 June, 30 militants dressed in military uniforms descended on neighbouring Mkunumbi on 25 June. They declared themselves the “original Al-Shabaab” and said they were there to execute people who had “invaded their lands.” The militants shot dead one resident and beheaded four others in this attack on the Salama and Juhudi villages.
 
These attacks in Kenya are reminiscent of the deadly violence from 2012 to 2013 that followed Kenyan security forces Operation Linda Nchi in Somalia. A considerable Al-Shabaab network in Kenya, under the direction of a loose group of associates known as ‘Al-Hijra,’ had been expected to lead to retaliation in Kenya. But increased Kenyan surveillance helped disperse Al-Hijra from their main areas of operation– Mombasa and Nairobi. Several militants were arrested or killed in Kenya, but others escaped to Somalia, where they received military training under the new unit known as ‘Jaysh Ayman.’
 
During its earlier Kenyan campaign, Al-Shabaab senior leadership came to rely on the Amniyaat, its feared secret service, and its military formations on the Somali side of the Kenya-Somalia border. Former AS leader Ahmed Abdi Godane ordered his commander in the Lower and Middle Juba regions, Mohamed Kunow Dulyadeyn, known as ‘Gamadhere,’ to expand operations into the Garissa and Wajir Counties of Kenya. Then AS commander in Gedo, Adan Garar was instructed to expand his presence into Mandera County. It was after these changes that Kenya suffered its most lethal AS attacks, including the Westgate shopping mall attack in September 2013, the Mpeketoni attack in June 2014, and the Garissa University attack in April 2015.
 
The Kenyan contingent of Al-Shabaab militants, the majority operating under Jaysh Ayman, has been viewed as under-performing by AS leadership. But it has also proved its deadliness. The unit orchestrated the complex attack on the DusitD2 Hotel in Nairobi in January 2019 that killed 22 civilians, and was involved in the January 2020 attack on the American Manda Bay Airfield in Lamu. In early 2023, it was reported that Al-Shabaab’s Kenyan operations were being led by Kenyans, including Maalim Ayman, from whom Jaysh Ayman got its name, Ramadhan Kufungwa, and Abdikadir Mohamed Abdikadir, known as Ikrima. However, with Al-Shabaab on the back foot during the first phase of Somalia’s offensive in 2022, AS leadership once again found itself divided along familiar fault lines. The group’s foreign fighters, known as ‘Muhajiroun,’ had previously split with senior Somali leaders.
 
Reportedly frustrated by the Kenyan contingent of Al-Shabaab led by Salman Al-Muhajir and a senior operative known as ‘Jabir,’ the current de facto commander of Al-Shabaab Mahad Karate placed Kenyan AS operations in the hands of others. Salman and Jabir were arrested, and Maalim Ayman was restricted within Somalia. Jafar Sudani, a Sudanese national, was subsequently named leader of all Muhajiroun. The followers of Salman and Jabir, the majority of Kenyan nationals, revolted. Some were arrested, while others escaped into Middle Juba. As the war against Al-Shabaab continues in Somalia, other seemingly more efficient fighters have replaced veteran Muhajiroun. This reorganization has been central to increased AS attacks along the Kenya-Somalia border. Al-Shabaab has yet again proved capable of deadly adaptation when facing intense internal and external pressures.
 
Kenyan security agencies have claimed that Al-Shabaab militants are currently hiding in four sub-counties in Wajir. Veteran Kenyan AS are now hiding in the forests of southern Somalia, rebelling against a group for which they were once ready to die. This band of former AS militants, pursued by the group’s new leader and trapped in southern Somalia, may present an opportunity for Kenyan security agencies to exploit AS divisions, if an olive branch is extended.
 
In the meantime, Kenyan President William Ruto has signalled his administration’s intent to degrade Al-Shabaab and ramp up Kenya’s border security. Talk of reopening the Kenya-Somalia border has been delayed, and Ruto has insisted that Kenya intends to send a “compelling message to Al-Shabaab.” Kenya Defence Forces (KDF) are reportedly establishing 14 Forward Operating Bases along the Somali border, and investing USD 200 million in upgrading KDF military capabilities. These are critical steps in addressing the perennial danger of Al-Shabaab on Kenya’s border.