Issue No. 562

Somalia’s political discord
 

The Minister of Finance of Puntland recently announced the region's withdrawal from Somalia’s debt relief process. The process necessitates the demonstration of government structural reforms, including resource distribution and allocation among Federal Member States (FMS). The reforms are also a prerequisite for Somalia to qualify for International Monetary Fund (IMF) loans, which would facilitate tangible development in Somalia. 
 
President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud (HSM), who took office for a second time in May 2022, has advocated for Somalia's achievement of domestic and international harmony. Fourteen months into his term, however, what initially appeared as a promising political trajectory is now looking more like discord, with underlying fractures beginning to reemerge. Somalia has an intricate political landscape characterised by fragmented government structures, perpetuated by successive failed political settlements and by an elite-dominated political process. These factors continue to undermine inclusive governance, stabilisation, and economic and social development. Authentic, informed, and genuinely negotiated political settlements could potentially pave the way for stability and peace.
 
Somalia’s political landscape is characterized by a complex interplay of clan dynamics, regional rivalries, and high-level power struggles. Clan-based politics, and identities, have significantly influenced the formation of political alliances and conflicts across the country. Various factions and regional authorities vie for power, resulting in political fragmentation and a lack of cohesive governance. 
 
The 2016 presidential election was met with optimism, as was Mohamed Abdullahi Farmaajo’s victory. Farmaajo was viewed as a Somali nationalist, and his win was considered a milestone on Somalia's path toward stability and democracy. President Farmaajo assumed office in 2017 with a promise to combat corruption and promote unity. But his administration was soon plagued by challenges, and his tenure was ultimately marked by power struggles and political infighting. These struggles were further aggravated by regional tensions, as Federal Member States like Puntland and Jubaland resisted what they perceived as the centralisation of power by the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS). This regional divide then fuelled political instability, and impeded the government's capacity to address pressing issues like insecurity, poverty, and a lack of basic public services.
 
Since the international recognition of Somalia as a functioning state in 2012, two prime ministers have been removed from office through votes of no confidence (in 2014 and 2017), and one resigned in 2011. The motivations behind this extended beyond the merit of the performance of the prime ministers. Personal interests, loyalties, and the preservation of existing power dynamics also played a role, indicating the presence of inherent patronage networks.
 
The first significant manifestation of discord in the current administration emerged in January 2023, when Puntland declared itself independent from the federal government until Somalia’s constitution is approved. In June of this year, former Governor Ali Jeyte Osman unilaterally proclaimed the separation of the Hiiraan region from Hirshabelle State. Since then, challenges have arisen in Barawe in South West State and re-emerged in Gedo in Jubaland.
 
These divisions present significant obstacles to the Somali President's noble goal of attaining harmony. These divisions do not necessarily reflect shortcomings in current government leadership but rather underscore inherent flaws in Somalia's elite-dominated political processes. The country’s political framework remains incomplete and deeply uneven, leading to a lack of clarity on the roles and responsibilities of the federal government and the FMS. Tensions as found in Hirshabelle and Jubaland are not due to isolated incidents but are symptomatic of larger political challenges. 
 
HSM deserves recognition for the accomplishments he and his government achieved during his first term in office. Under his administration, the Somali federation took shape, overcoming obstacles that initially cast doubt on its viability. The establishment of an effective consultative process facilitated by the National Leadership Forum (NLF) was instrumental in forging the federation.
 
Addressing inherent and re-emerging discord between individual leaders, between Federal Member States, and between FMS and FGS requires transparency, accountability, and merit-based appointments. By combating patronage networks and promoting inclusive governance, Somalia can strive toward a more equitable and effective political system that prioritizes the interests of all its citizens. The current National Consultative Council (NCC) provides a platform for dialogue, negotiations, and power-sharing between the FGS and FMS. This forum should allow the genuine participation of key stakeholders in decision-making processes by initially addressing the root causes of conflict, resolving grievances, and forging a common vision for the future of the country. Current tensions arose when the NCC seemingly took on the role of a collective executive, developing radical and wide-ranging proposals it expects to be adopted with little deliberation. 
 
Political settlements achieved through negotiated agreements and inclusive processes can serve as vital instruments to stabilise Somalia. Such settlements must forge consensus among diverse political actors, reconcile conflicting interests, and establish governance structures that promote peace, security and development. Only through such difficult but sustainable means can Somalia’s political discord truly be overcome.