Issue No. 558

Puntland adrift
 

Somalia’s most stable Federal Member State (FMS) is adrift. Growing divides within Puntland between regional President Said Abdullahi Deni and opposition political parties have recently spilled over into deadly violence. A fragile ceasefire appears to be holding, but this violence is the latest episode in the region’s growing instability. Deepening divides between Puntland and Villa Somalia, and now reports of Da’esh presence in Bosaaso, threaten to further destabilise Puntland, now in the midst of several political and security crises.
 
Deni’s attempt to push through deeply controversial constitutional changes was always likely to trigger some form of armed response, and it did. The 20 June clashes were long coming, after months of simmering tensions concerning the build-up to the May one-person one-vote (OPOV) elections, and suspicions that Deni might attempt to extend his term in office. But last week’s deadly violence in Garowe between opposition forces led by Danaab General Jim’aale Jama’ Takaar and Puntland regional forces, which saw heavy weapons used, marked a worrying escalation.
 
Its trigger was the proposed move to reopen Puntland’s constitution to amend Article 46 to increase the number of registered political parties from three to 5, and Article 79 to extend the length of the president’s term in office. The first amendment is intended to dilute the influence of opposition parties, and the second to extend Deni’s term in similar fashion to other Federal Member State presidents, like Jubaland’s Ahmed Madoobe. Opposition political associations in Puntland strongly oppose both measures and have been signalling broader displeasure at Deni’s administration for months. Deni’s latest move to reopen the region’s constitution has dashed hopes that the Puntland administration might seek to foster genuine pluralism in the region, after the relative success of the May OPOV elections.
 
Thankfully, the violence in Garowe quickly abated. Majerteen clan elders mobilised a tentative ceasefire, with Islaan Issa Islaan Mohamed saying the two sides will soon engage in dialogue. But overall tensions are far from diminishing. Instead, it appears that the clashes have hardened the administration’s position. On Saturday 24 June, Deni reshuffled his cabinet and other key officials. The wide-reaching shake-up saw new governors appointed to the Nugaal and Gardafu regions, as well as new Ministers of Finance, Interior, Fisheries, and Agriculture. Deni also overhauled the leadership of Puntland’s police force and sacked Colonel Jim’aale, though it is yet unclear what impact this may have. The reshuffle suggests that Deni intends to consolidate his position on the proposed constitutional changes.

Ironically, Deni’s accusations that Somalia’s recent National Consultative Council (NCC) proposals are undemocratic and unconstitutional are similar to those of Puntland’s opposition against Deni. On 30 May, Deni condemned the proposals and accused HSM of leading Somalia in the “wrong direction.” And on 15 June, he alleged that the federal government was “oppressing” people in Gedo.
 
Political divisions are not the only threat to Puntland’s stability. Alarming reports from Bosaaso suggest increasing Da’esh activity in the port city. Threats of extortion have shuttered several businesses as the militant group attempts to draw revenue there. Two worrying incidents in June saw a hand grenade thrown into an auto parts shop, and the city’s National Hospital shut for a week due to threats. Da’esh infiltration and destabilisation of Bosaaso is the last thing Puntland needs as it navigates both internal and external divides. Deni’s administration appears to be too wrapped up in political chaos of its own making to govern effectively and provide adequate coastal security.
 
What is happening in Puntland can be seen as a microcosm of what is happening across Somalia, with clashing security forces, concerns of militant infiltration, and concerns of politicians riding rough-shod over the federal and regional constitutions. Puntland and the federal government should each look to the other to recognise the danger of attempting significant constitutional change without consensus. Politicians’ self-interest is also reopening doors for Al-Shabaab and Da’esh to enter, exploiting unravelling scenarios from Bosaaso to Gedo.

Puntland’s administration should now heed calls for a more inclusive political process, and abandon attempts to extend Deni’s term in office. The strength of Puntland’s democracy lies in the resilience of its institutions rather than the consolidation of power around one single leader. Upholding the region’s constitution, respecting established procedures, and healing festering political divides are essential to safeguarding Puntland’s future as a key player in Somalia and the region.