Issue No. 515

 
The Hassan Sheikh Mohamud (HSM) administration intends to change the constitutionally mandated period of time in one presidential term from four years to five. Last week, a group of 97 MPs gave notice of intent to the Speakers of both houses of Parliament to file a motion for a constitutional amendment. A committee has since been named to study the merits of the initiative; it will soon submit its findings.
 
On the surface, the move to add one extra year to the president’s current term seems innocuous, popular, and, arguably, even justifiable. But is it?
 
Since late last 2022 there have been rumours that HSM has wanted to bring Somalia in line with most East African states by having a five-year term. A five-year electoral cycle is said to suit Somalia much better than four years. The extra year would give governments more time to fulfil their goals. At the time this was first mentioned, it appeared Villa Somalia favoured the extension as part of a broader harmonisation of federal and state electoral calendars. It was partly in response to all state governments having extended their own mandates by one year. These unilateral term extensions sowed tensions and, in the case of South West State, risked triggering an armed insurrection against Abdiasis Laftagareen. Misalignment among Somalia’s electoral calendars has been seen by many as a major driver of instability. Villa Somalia tacitly approved the state-level extensions in large part because this was part of a grand modus vivendi to bring about a new inclusive federal and state five-year electoral calendar.
 
Having one synchronised national and sub-national electoral calendar has merits. It has potential to advance and sustainpolitical stability and reduce the heat generated by electoral politics. But as things stand, it is unclear how the extension would be implemented at both levels; we must take care not to assume such change in itself will improve things.
 
Somalia’s political elites seem quite united in the move to amend the Constitution to give the country a longer electoral calendar. One exception is Abdirahman Abdishakur, who has openly come out against it. 
 
In fact, having a 5-year, as opposed to a four-year term mandate does not confer any special powers onto governments. Crucially, it does not necessarily translate into effective government. It could just give a lazy political elite 12 extra months to do little or nothing, as successive Somali regimes have demonstrated a chronic lack of focus on implementing change. An extension may just prolong dysfunction, not end it.
 
The HSM administration has little wind behind its sails to make progress on a number of crucial transitional tasks. It is the realisation that it is already running out of time that is most likely pushing the government to seek the extension. The campaign against Al-Shabaab is getting slower, dogged by multiple challenges. The regime is ever less cohesive, beset by inner wranglings and factionalism.
 
Whatever the specific merits and demerits of a one-year term extension of a presidential term in office, the implications for overall constitutionalism and democratisation in Somalia could be grave. Term limits (both in relation to years per term and terms per president) are important signifiers for liberal and democratic order. They are important checks against authoritarianism. Of course, there will be exceptional and emergency conditions under which a government may be allowed an extension. But, generally, there ought to be strong constitutional safeguards to ensure term extensions remain exceptionally difficult to obtain.
 
It is not time that Somali governments most lack. What they lack is elite focus and the ability to methodically and effectively discharge the tasks at hand. Each Somali government seems to follow a familiar pattern. They assume office amidst great euphoria, great soundbites and great rhetoric. They promise change and raise public expectations. Yet all too quickly they veer off the path of reform and become bogged down in factional power struggles. Honeymoon seasons end early; electioneering and politicking soon follow.
 
The HSM administration has fallen into familiar quicksand. A term extension in itself-- without a fundamental rethink of strategic priorities and how to achieve them-- will not alone be beneficial. If, however, it is accompanied by invigorated elite ambition to transform Somalia for the better, it may actually be worth it.