Issue No. 510

Bringing Federal Member States into the Federal Process
 

Since assuming power in May 2022, Somalia’s new government under Hassan Sheikh Mohamud (HSM) has been following a road map of state-building, constitutional reform, federalism, security reform and military operations. While all eyes have been on its successes against Al-Shabaab in south central Somalia, international attention has been shifting to the enormous job of inclusive and collaborative federal state building. 
 
How have Somalia’s Federal Member States (FMS) been helping or hindering federalism to date? Are the FMS being sufficiently included in decisions affecting their regions? Do their presidents’ aims include more than extending their respective terms of office?
 
There were violent confrontations between forces of Regional President Abdiaziz Hassan Mohamed Laftagareen and his political opposition in South West State in January. HSM convened a reconciliation conference in early February. The President, Prime Minister Hamza Abdi Barre, and other officials succeeded in ending the violence with an agreement to extend Laftagareen’s term.
 
Regional President Said Abdullahi Deni issued an official statement in mid-January, reclaiming greater autonomy for Puntland until Somalia’s provisional constitution is completed. He also pulled Puntland out of the National Consultative Council (NCC). At the same time, the region serves as a potential model for local election planning and implementation across Somalia.
 
In the federal states of Hirshabelle and Galmudug, ma’awisley clan militias, the Somali National Army (SNA),  and regional forces have been cooperating, with international support, in remarkably successful operations against Al-Shabaab, particularly in the Hiiraan and Galguduud regions. This is impressive. But what do the regional presidents, Ali Abdullahi Hussein and Ahmed Abdi Khaire (‘Qoor Qoor’), think about the many issues being discussed, and purportedly unanimously agreed upon, in Somalia’s much lauded NCC? The international community expects NCC agreements to be implemented by technical committees. However, some have not been reporting and others have not yet been formed.
 
Jubaland is known for its natural resources, including the crucial port of Kismayo. Regional President Ahmed Madoobe is widely respected for his contributions to multiple Somali political transitions. He has much to offer the federal process, but his voice has been unusually quiet. 
 
The Banaadir Administration (BRA), which covers the same areas as Somalia’s capital Mogadishu, is run by Governor Yusuf Hussein Jim’aale. The capital has been hard hit in recent months by improvised explosive devices (IEDs), suicide bombers, and other complex extremist attacks. Mogadishu is the heart of the Somali federal state, its security, and its stability. Lack of coordination between Banaadir and federal authorities could undermine the federal project. And the ultimate political and legal status of Mogadishu as the federal capital would remain ambiguous and unresolved.
 
Leaving the self-declared independent state of Somaliland aside, the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS), FMS, and BRA are still far from fair, participatory, and inclusive consultations. Moreover, there appears to be little transparency, genuine dialogue, or cohesive action in terms of both governance and security in the NCC. 
 
The NCC has met four times since May 2022, with very little substance in the June and September meetings. At the third meeting in October, it agreed to carry forward the 2017 National Security Architecture and to establish a corresponding technical committee to review it. And in its fourth meeting in December, the NCC agreed on models for both Somalia’s judiciary and a power sharing arrangement, the latter of which appears to have stalled. 
 
The next bi-monthly NCC meeting is expected to take place soon in Baidoa in South West State. The representatives of the FGS, FMS and BRA participating in this meeting would do well to encourage all NCC actors to come better prepared than they have been for previous meetings. Such preparation should include: a substantive agenda circulated in advance; the same level of technical support for the FMS as for their FGS counterparts, to augment the quality of debate and negotiation; and emphasis on a genuine political dimension to dialogue and approval processes, not just pro forma signatures on rote technical agreements.