Issue No. 509

Somalia’s peace offensive at home and abroad 
 

Speaking at the 36th annual African Union Heads of State Summit in Addis Ababa, Somalia’s President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud touched on a number of important topics--combating climate change, inclusive politics, and boosting economic growth. Most striking, however, was the president’s eagerness to strengthen collaboration with the AU, its Member States, and other international partners. This is in line with his global campaign, "Soomaali heshiis a, dunidan heshiis la ah” (“Somalis at peace with one another and at peace with the world”). The president’s campaign slogan refers to support for Somalia's war against Al-Shabaab. It also refers to Somalia’s eagerness to rejoin the regional and international community as a major step in rebuilding its collapsed economy. Somalia finally seems poised to reap peace dividends after a decades-long insurgency that has constrained Somalia’s efforts to escape the morass in which it has been stuck since the 1980s. 
 
On the sidelines of the summit, the President met with the leaders of Tanzania, Rwanda, and Kenya. At these meetings, President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud sought agreement on Somalia’s bid to join the East African Community (EAC). Membership in the EAC is a priority for Somalia’s current government. The regional market is essential to Somalia's economic development and regional peace. The East African Community officially concluded a verification mission to assess Somalia's readiness to join the regional bloc in late January, suggesting that the country's application to join the regional bloc is progressing positively. 
 
Somalia’s relationship with Kenya has improved under President Hassan Sheikh and President Ruto, who, in a sharp departure from his predecessor, intends to expand rapprochement with neighboring Somalia. Not only is the Kenyan government a strong advocate for Somalia's accession to the EAC, but the two governments recently agreed to reopen their borders, and tighten border security and crack down on smuggling. This signals a shift in the bilateral relationship between the two countries, as well as a shift in Kenya’s security policy.
 
Somalia’s current offensives against Al-Shabaab have also benefited from newly formed alliances with other countries in the region. The African Union Transition Mission (ATMIS), which includes troops from Uganda, Burundi, Kenya, Ethiopia, and Djibouti, has actively taken part in the offensive. ATMIS troops have routinely participated in government-led offensives for the past several months, providing essential logistical support and aerial surveillance. In addition, Mogadishu recently hosted a rare Frontline States Conference inviting delegations from states that share a border with Somalia. All three heads of state for Kenya, Ethiopia, and Djibouti, attended. The presidents reaffirmed their commitment to fighting Al-Shabaab on all fronts highlighting the urgent need for a joint regional operational strategy against Al-Shabaab.
 
The relationship between Somalia and the wider international community has improved as well. The US decision to redeploy troops to Somalia and increase the frequency of aerial attacks on Al-Shabaab is indicative of greatly improved relations with Somalia. Last week, Germany, Sweden, Belgium, and Italy paid off Somalia's debt to the United Nations International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD), which had blocked the organization from investing in the country's agricultural and pastoral development. Following a three-decade suspension due to unpaid debt, Somalia can now receive financing from IFAD as it battles unprecedented drought and millions of people facing dire hunger.
 
According to Zayd Saban, Director of the Arab League's Horn of Africa and Sudan Department, Iraq is also planning to write off some of Somalia's debt in line with Arab League summit agreements, which have encouraged member governments to do this. These actions are good news for Somalia. Despite steady improvements in Somalia's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) as of November 2022 the government uses about 96% of its GDP is used to pay off its USD 5.2 billion national debt. Somalia’s relations with other Arab League states have also seen steady improvements. Despite initial caution in relation to Qatar for supporting his predecessor, President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud is scheduled to visit Doha in March, right before the Fifth United Nations Conference on the Least Developed Countries (LDC5).
  
The president’s campaign to foster peace in Somalia, in part through inclusive politics, has also had some tangible successes. He deftly mediated a dispute at the Baidoa Reconciliation Conference between the government of South West State and its opposition.  At least 10 people had been killed in December 2022 in violence over the extension of Regional President Abdiaziz Hassan Mohamed Laftagareen’s term in office. President Hassan Sheikh Mahamoud made a plea for dialogue over violence, and a settlement was reached, averting further bloodshed.
 
Although there remain some tensions between the Federal Government of Somalia and the Federal Member States, the President has effectively pulled together support to counter Al-Shabaab. In what the government refers to as the "first phase of the offensive," Somali troops and local "Ma’awisley" fighters have liberated huge areas of land in Hirshabelle and Galmudug states. The second phase of operations, which will concentrate on South West State and Jubaland, has just been announced by the federal administration. This offensive will necessitate cooperation among member states, which should further improve relations.
 
There is, however, one issue that could stand in the way of the government’s peace offensive. Although relations with the majority of member states have improved, Mogadishu’s relations with Puntland remain strained. On 9 January Puntland, while citing Article 4(3) of the Puntland constitution, declared that it will operate autonomously, engaging with Mogadishu exclusively on humanitarian matters, until Somalia’s provisional constitution is completed. This comes after Puntland rejected a communique from the government and other member states in late December 2022. President Mohamud and Puntland's Regional President Said Deni have yet been unable to reconcile divisions despite many meetings in recent months.
 
President Mohamud’s peace offensive at home and abroad is ideally placed to advance Somalia’s national interests and contribute to regional security.  Despite a few setbacks, it can be said the administration of President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud is earnest in his pursuit of a Somalia at peace within itself and with its neighbors. The FGS peace offensives have received national, regional, and international support. The fact that multiple young men continue to enroll as part of local ‘Ma’awisley’ forces is indicative of Somalis’ desire for peace, prosperity, and economic progress. It is commendable that HSM’s administration has managed to foster a sense of national unity. The international community can reinforce his efforts by ensuring an informed and holistic approach to any support given to the Somali government.