Issue No. 28

Destruction in Sudan's Forgotten War

A year of armed conflict and destruction in Sudan is fast approaching. Since violence erupted on 15 April 2023, the war has been principally fought between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF). With international attention overwhelmingly focused on Gaza and Ukraine, the world's largest humanitarian crisis continues to spiral as the war spreads further, with El Fasher in North Darfur now under threat. Indiscriminate violence, widespread looting, aid restrictions, sexual violence, mass displacement, and severe food shortages have exacted an unbearable humanitarian toll. It has become, as described by a senior United Nations official, "truly the stuff of nightmares."
 
At the beginning of 2024, the RSF was on the front foot– politically and militarily. It had seized swathes of central Sudan in December 2023, routing poorly-trained recruits in Wad Madani and elsewhere before RSF Commander Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo 'Hemedti' embarked on a regional tour in a bid to repair his tarnished image. The imminent collapse of the SAF and an RSF march on the army's stronghold in Port Sudan were being touted as military officials refused to negotiate with their paramilitary rivals. In recent weeks, though, following an injection of Mohajer-6 drones from Iran, the SAF wrested control of the symbolic National Radio and Television Corporation complex in Omdurman from the RSF. The arrival of yet another Middle Eastern power into the armed conflict further complicates the complex geo-strategic dynamics being played out in Sudan. Still, while the RSF has been forced to withdraw from parts of Khartoum and Omdurman, it is gaining ground in El Fasher, North Darfur's regional capital. SAF has continued striking RSF positions on the city's outskirts amid growing fears that violence could soon engulf El Fasher.
 
The change in fortunes of the two belligerents has made hopes of a ceasefire even more distant. The SAF command has been emboldened by its recent string of victories after losing ground for the best part of a year, as well as the recent promise of Minni Minnawi's Sudanese Liberation Army joining them. Before Ramadan, Lieutenant General Yasir Al-Atta, deputy commander of the Sudanese army, rebuffed calls for a ceasefire during the holy month, continuing to attach unachievable conditions for any truce. These conditions include the withdrawal of RSF from occupied cities in Darfur and Kordofan, their departure from Khartoum, and the handover of "looted items." Recent comments by senior military officials have been even more hardline, rejecting any possibility of a return to a power-sharing military-civilian government. SAF Commander Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, sensing victory over the RSF in Khartoum, is seemingly intent on re-establishing military control under the guise of "technocratic government".
 
There's currently little hope for any ceasefire in Sudan, with neither Hemedti nor al-Burhan seriously interested in halting their forces. The US Special Envoy for Sudan, Tom Perriello, announced on 26 March that the US is pushing for peace negotiations in Sudan to resume by 18 April. But whenever negotiations do appear to be imminent, the belligerents either refuse to participate, or the party that perceives itself as being in a position of strength tends to present unreasonable demands. In recent weeks, rumours of negotiations and talks in Switzerland, Libya, and Turkey have come and gone with no tangible results.
 
Nor is the spiralling humanitarian crisis convincing the RSF or SAF that a cessation of hostilities is urgent. Indeed, both sides have been repeatedly accused of weaponising food and humanitarian aid for their own purpose. Just this week, the RSF rejected a new aid route agreed upon by the army and United Nations agencies that would deliver relief into Darfur through SAF-controlled territory. For months, the army's Humanitarian Aid Commission had repeatedly refused to allow life-saving aid to cross the internal frontlines and from Chad into Darfur. Partial access has now been agreed upon, but with only 4% of the UN's Humanitarian Response Plan for Sudan funded, it will only get so far.
 
With 11 million people displaced, harvests have been left to rot in fields and warehouses, and food supply chains have been entirely disrupted. The imminent dry season is sure to compound the growing risk of famine, with 18 million people already at risk of acute hunger and malnutrition-- 37% of Sudan's pre-war population. In the absence of large-scale international humanitarian aid delivery, community-led initiatives such as the Emergency Response Rooms have emerged to a degree of success. But these responses are a drop in the proverbial ocean to the amount of aid urgently required in the coming months. For many, it is already too late.
 
All the while, heinous human rights violations continue to be committed across the country, particularly by the RSF. An extensive nationwide communications blackout that lasted days in late February 2024, blamed on the RSF, proved calamitous for aid delivery into Khartoum. When telecommunications and the internet were eventually restored, though they still remain patchy or severed in Darfur, more reports of rape and sexual violence against women and girls emerged. UN Human Rights Chief Volker Türk has described sexual violence as a "defining – and despicable – characteristic of this crisis since the beginning." Although both sides have been accused of using rape and sexual violence as a tool of war, the RSF has been particularly associated with this in Darfur. The paramilitaries have also forcibly recruited child soldiers in the region, exploiting the 'faza'a' custom that calls on communities to demonstrate support in times of crisis.
 
Overshadowed by the crisis in Gaza, Sudan's belligerents and their international backers have avoided concerted international pressure and scrutiny. For instance, repeated obstructing of humanitarian aid delivery, illegal under International Humanitarian Law, has barely elicited a response. It is not to deny the horrors of Gaza and Ukraine to insist that a similar humanitarian standard and political attention should be paid to Sudan. The arrival of the US special envoy has been welcomed, but with so many competing peace tracks, the belligerents have been able to shop around for their preferred venue and rely on support from their international backers. Still, even though the domestic and international complications of the conflict are immense, the total collapse of Sudan is surely not in the interests of the SAF's and RSF's various African and Arab allies. If talks are to resume in Jeddah in the coming weeks, a key element will be convincing the Gulf capitals with leverage over the warring parties to come to the table with productive proposals.

By the Horn Edition team