Issue No. 22

A humanitarian crisis and severed aid in Sudan

Sudan's humanitarian crisis is like a speeding freight train. While brakes can be applied, severe malnutrition and hunger levels, as well as infectious diseases, are now so prevalent that they cannot be halted overnight. Prior to the outbreak of armed conflict, Sudan's population was estimated at around 49 million. Today, the World Food Programme (WFP) has estimated that almost 18 million people are facing acute hunger, while at least 5 million are experiencing emergency levels, particularly in areas devastated by conflict in Khartoum, Darfur, and Kordofan. The hope that any 'brakes,' a rapid and massive scaling up of humanitarian aid delivery, might be applied is dwindling fast.
 
On 11 February, during a visit to the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) 19th Infantry Division in Al-Dabbah in northern Sudan, General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan insisted that the SAF would not permit the delivery of humanitarian aid to Rapid Support Forces (RSF)-held territory. In essence, al-Burhan threatened to sever western Sudan and a sizeable swathe of the Kordofans and central Sudan from food and medical aid. Last week, in just a single camp in North Darfur, Médecins Sans Frontières warned that a child is dying every two hours, while 40% of pregnant and breastfeeding women are severely malnourished. Any further limits on aid delivery would be utterly catastrophic for the millions of internally displaced. It is yet to be seen whether the SAF commander holds firm to his remarks, but it is notable that he made them in the first place.
 
Al-Burhan has sought to cast himself as the only 'legitimate' ruler of Sudan, but his latest comments are part of a longer history of aid obstruction by the Sudanese army to rebel-held areas. In Darfur in the 2000s, war-induced famine took a brutal toll, with hundreds of thousands dying from starvation and preventable diseases. Omar al-Bashir's regime subsequently repeatedly obstructed the delivery of large-scale aid. But massive international pressure and condemnation of the war crimes, including those of deliberate starvation, eventually helped aid trickle into the country's peripheries.
 
This time around, the international community's reaction has been muted at best, with al-Burhan's comments barely eliciting a response. Despite promises of allowing delivery of humanitarian assistance in Jeddah under the auspices of US-Saudi-sponsored talks, they have been repeatedly reneged upon. In November 2023, welcoming the return of the Jeddah talks, the UN Emergency Relief Coordinator and Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs, Martin Griffiths, called on the warring parties to "break the bureaucratic logjam" and "fully adhere to international law." But the armed conflict has since expanded eastwards, and the humanitarian situation has continued to deteriorate, with fears of looming famine in Sudan rising. The massive displacement has resulted in vast tracts of farmland left unharvested, and the imminent 'lean season' is sure to compound the near-catastrophic hunger levels.
 
Humanitarian convoys are still struggling to cross fragmented frontlines in Khartoum and elsewhere, while roadblocks and checkpoints are limiting delivery. In a bid to break this deadlock, and with only a fraction of aid reaching those who need it, Griffiths said on 7 February that he had spoken with RSF Commander Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo 'Hemedti' and al-Burhan, who had assured him that they would meet in Switzerland to facilitate aid delivery. But al-Burhan's comments appear to have dashed the possibility of a meeting. In January, the SAF commander also suddenly pulled out of an Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) summit centred on the armed conflict due to an invitation being extended to Hemedti.
 
The RSF has seized on al-Burhan's remarks, seeking to paint the paramilitary forces as the only armed group concerned about Sudan's civilians and humanitarian crisis. Ibrahim Mukhayer, who sits on the RSF's Advisory Bureau, reiterated that the RSF would be open to pursuing the delivery of humanitarian assistance through joint committees with aid organisations. But the RSF's plundering and razing of settlements across Darfur and Kordofan, as well as the historical capital of Khartoum, alongside its calls for increased aid, has drawn questions of their sincerity. The RSF's brutal war economy is at the heart of the massive humanitarian crisis consuming Darfur, just as the SAF's blanket rejection that there would be no meeting and no aid is tantamount to abandoning a large portion of the population they claim to govern.
 
The Geneva Convention explicitly states that warring parties are required to allow the "free passage" of aid under Article 59 (3). But the casual abandonment of this key convention, as witnessed in Sudan and Gaza today, is part of a wider, global decline of diplomatic norms and the multilateral institutions that are supposed to uphold them. Nevertheless, it is still extraordinary that the international and regional community has barely reacted to a national leader proclaiming that humanitarian aid will not be allowed.

In this context, the repeated point-blank refusals of the SAF leadership to meet with the RSF until a host of demands are met has seen little serious pushback. The SAF's demands are also a wilful misunderstanding of the role the African Union and IGAD can play. Insisting on conditions that entirely align with the viewpoint of one armed group while demanding effective capitulation of the other is antithetical to effective mediation. The Switzerland meeting should not be abandoned, even if broader peace tracks are unlikely to find much progress in the immediate future. Concerted pressure from those who hold leverage over the RSF and the SAF should compel them to abide by their promises of humanitarian access.

By the Horn Edition team