Issue No. 256

Published 22 Oct 2024

Fano Insurgency Resists Amidst Latest Offensive

Published on 22 Oct 2024 13:39 min

Fano Insurgency Resists Amidst Latest Offensive

On 29 September, the Ethiopian government launched yet another major offensive against the Fano insurgency in the Amhara region. Despite successive attempts to substantially degrade the disparate Amhara nationalist movement, the militias remain potent fighting forces, and weeks into the latest operations, little appears to have changed. 

On 1 October, justifying the latest escalation, Ethiopian National Defence Force (ENDF) spokesperson Colonel Getinet Adane and the Amhara regional government communications head called the offensive "final and decisive" while asserting that Fano leaders were collaborating with unspecified "historical enemies" of Ethiopia– a clear allusion to Egypt. This latest accusation from Addis comes amidst rising regional tensions and follows reports that Eritrean and Egyptian military intelligence have discussed Cairo joining Asmara in arming elements of the insurgency. Consequently, the decision from Addis to intensify their military operations was also seemingly motivated by the view that it must decisively weaken the Fano militias if a broader regional war is to break out and threaten Ethiopia on multiple fronts.

But for the first time, the officials also acknowledged that the Fano insurgency was presenting a serious challenge, having previously asserted that the conflict was under control. This was becoming increasingly difficult to claim in light of the casualties being inflicted upon the ENDF and videos of hundreds of captured government soldiers being paraded by Fano militias circulating online. Further, August and September had seen several notable battlefield successes of the Fano against the ENDF, with militias in Gonder and Wollo, in particular, seizing control of several towns and inflicting major losses on the army. 

Heavy fighting has since erupted in and around several significant urban areas in the region, particularly in Gojjam, where the influential Fano faction led by Zemene Kasse operates. Clashes have been fierce, with high casualties suffered on both sides as Fano shows an increasing propensity for larger-scale pitched battles. The ENDF has also sought to re-establish control of arterial supply routes, including the Gonder-Chilga-Kokit-Metema road, massing armoured vehicles, drones, attack helicopters and 5,000 ENDF troops to secure it. The Fano militia forces that had been responsible for capturing Metema– a key refugee transit town on the Sudanese border– have since retreated from the road but continue to conduct attacks on the ENDF. Simultaneously, several Fano factions are also engaged in guerilla tactics, continuing to ambush military and government outposts and target government officials.

One of the more notable elements of the renewed violence has been the drastic increase in air and drone strikes being carried out across North Shewa, South Wollo, East and West Gojjam. Dozens of civilians have been killed in the strikes, as well as a significant amount of infrastructure has been damaged. Prior to the intensification of conflict in August 2023, the support for Fano was significant amongst specific constituencies, such as disenfranchised urban youth, but support has grown in response to the ENDF's tactics. In early October, Fano factions once again urged youth to join the movement, and there were reports of a fresh wave of former Amhara Special Force soldiers signing up.

Alongside the launching of military operations has been the widespread purging and detention of Amhara politicians and security officials suspected of being affiliated with the Fano insurgency. Much like in August 2023, when the insurgency dramatically escalated, hundreds have been arrested, including public figures such as Zemenu Haile, a House of Peoples' Representatives member of the National Movement of Amhara. 

Meanwhile, the fallout from the conflict in Amhara continues to bleed into the elite politics of Addis. President Sahle-Work Zehde has been replaced, with her tenure not being renewed for a second 6-year term in October. For many, she leaves behind a dubious legacy due to her inaction amidst the atrocities in Tigray, but she was reportedly critical of the federal government's handling of the armed conflicts in Oromia and Amhara. Taye Atske-Selassie, the former foreign minister, has been placed in her stead– and is a close member of Abiy's inner circle as the Ethiopian PM continues to consolidate power amongst a handful of trusted officials.

The objectives of the ENDF in these latest operations, particularly killing or capturing senior Fano leaders like Mire Wodajo and Zemene Kasse, have failed. Instead, Zemene Kasse's faction has not only held territory in Dega Damot, Dembecha, and South Mecha but has inflicted significant casualties on the ENDF and consolidated its hold on West Gojjam. Neither side can land a decisive blow, and it is increasingly clear that this militarised response will continue to fuel popular support for Fano, not diminish it. In the meantime, civilian and military casualties will continue to mount, both sides will become more entrenched, and the conflict more intractable.

By the Ethiopian Cable Team

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