Issue No. 243

On 3 July, three public buses ferrying Debark University students on break were stopped by armed men in Gerba Guracha, a small town in the Oromia region. In a widely-circulated account, dozens of people in two of the buses were violently abducted in one of the starkest examples of the growing lawlessness across swathes of Ethiopia. It was further symptomatic of a broader trend-- the ongoing contraction of the state's presence in large parts of the country and its inability to maintain law and order.
 
The federal government swiftly accused the insurgent Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) of carrying out the shocking kidnappings. Conflicting reports continue to swirl about the abductions, however, with some suggesting that the majority were soon released due to their ethnicity, with Amhara civilians still held. The Ethiopian Human Rights Commission (EHRC) reported that 138 students had been freed following the payment of enormous ransom sums, from between ETB 400,000 (USD 6,900) to as much as 1,000,000 (USD 17,300.) Meanwhile, the Oromo regional government dubiously claimed on 10 July that it had rescued 160 students from the OLA. What is clear is that many students remain in captivity and that immense ransoms have been paid to return loved ones.
 
While the OLA has denied responsibility, the insurgents nevertheless derive substantial funding through ransom demands, with a particular track record of abducting truck drivers on highways such as the A7 from Moja to Meki. Not only does it reap financial rewards, but the tactic allows the OLA to reinforce the perception that the federal and regional governments cannot protect arterial highways only a few dozen miles from the capital. Heavily armed convoys protecting senior officials are increasingly required to safeguard from hit-and-run attacks carried out by the OLA as well as the Fano militias in the Amhara region. Today, with security so poor, it is nigh impossible to safely drive from Addis to Bahir Dar, the regional capital of the Amhara region.
 
The OLA are far from the only body accused of abducting civilians in Oromia, however. On 11 July, the opposition Oromo Liberation Front (OLF) accused the regional government of orchestrating abductions through the 'Koree Nageeya'-- a secretive regional security committee implicated in the killings of dozens of Oromo to various ends. The recent murder of Bate Urgessa, a political officer of the OLF in April 2024, has also been widely attributed to government security forces following his abduction in his home town of Meki in Oromia. Government-backed militia have been accused of committing abductions, among other crimes, before claiming they were the work of the OLA or others in a bid to undermine popular support. Oromia's deteriorated humanitarian and economic conditions, security vacuum, and instability are all feeding into the grim, cyclical dynamic.
 
More systematic was the internment of thousands of Tigrayan civilians during the Tigray War in internment camps and makeshift prisons across the country. In August 2023, with the significant escalation of the Fano insurgency, the federal government once again detained large numbers of ethnic Amhara, whether or not they had any affiliation with the militias. This time, the government has also razed the Amhara-majority historic Piassa district as part of its broader 'modernisation' programme in the capital.
 
It is painfully ironic that it is precisely the federal government's attempts to stamp its authority on Tigray, Amhara, and Oromia that is driving the current contraction of the state presence. With the calamitous war in Tigray still unresolved, insurgencies in Amhara and Oromia, and ethnic-based violence touching nearly every region of the country, many have argued that Ethiopia is teetering on the edge of collapse. While one should not write off state collapse, it is more accurate to say that the presence of federal and regional governments is being felt less and less in the country's peripheries. In turn, Addis continues to grow in importance and stature for the federal government, with USD billions being poured into the capital's ‘facelift,’ while teachers in Afar have been reported to have gone months without pay.
 
The shocking kidnappings in Oromia earlier this month have further eroded limited trust in the regional and federal government. In so many parts of Ethiopia, the social fabric of communities has been torn apart or is teetering on the edge of collapse due to armed conflict or natural disasters. The abductions of the Debark University students may appear to be an outlier, but they fall firmly within the broader national trend. With enormous construction continuing apace across Addis, it begs the question, by the time it is finished, what state might Ethiopia be in?

By the Ethiopian Cable team