How Bad Must It Get in the North Korea of Africa?
In its most recent global rights report, Freedom House ranked Eritrea ‘not free,’ rating it just 3 points out of 100. Amnesty International cited 1000s of arbitrary detentions of Eritrean journalists, dissidents, and religious figures, and ongoing conscription into indefinite national service for youth as young as 16 in 2022. And Human Rights Watch has documented more than 580,000 Eritrean refugees and asylum seekers abroad, the majority of whom cited their country’s national service as the reason for their exodus.
But numbers alone cannot describe the depths to which Eritrea has fallen. According to the US Department of State Country Report on Human Rights for 2022, Eritreans face, among other abuses, forced disappearance, torture, life-threatening prison conditions, unlawful interference with privacy, the use of child soldiers and child labour, severe restrictions on freedom of expression, interference with freedom of assembly, severe restrictions on religious freedom, severe restrictions on freedom of movement, and impunity for perpetrators of sexual and gender-based violence. The hopes from the early 1990s when the young country might have become a democratic and liberal ideal in the Horn of Africa have faded away.
Those who escape Eritrea generally flee across Sudanese or Ethiopian borders. As of the beginning of the 2020-2022 Tigray War, there were some 150,000 Eritrean refugees in Ethiopia. Among those who targeted them during the war were Eritrean Defence Forces (EDF); some 20,000 refugees are estimated to have been forcibly returned to Eritrea during that time. There were also more than 135,000 Eritrean refugees registered in Sudan before fighting broke out in Khartoum in April. These too have been caught between warring parties after fleeing dire repression.
Most Eritrean refugees who make it to third countries in the Middle East or Europe face economic and social hardship. Those who manage to settle and succeed are faced with a 2% ‘diaspora tax,’ which serves to fund the Eritrean regime and the EDF. Avoiding the tax means risking the lives and livelihoods of family members still in Eritrea; most don’t take that chance. The People’s Front for Democracy and Justice (PFDJ), Eritrea’s only ‘political party,’ maintains a thuggish presence overseas, running propaganda festivals for the regime that often descend into violence.
But Asmara isn’t satisfied controlling its own people; its dictator Isaias Afewerki has ambitions of regional dominance. The same Tigray War that saw Eritrean refugees caught between those they fled and those who saw them as the enemy, claimed the lives of between 162,000 and 378,000 civilians, mostly Tigrayans. Their lives were taken by Ethiopian Defence Forces and regional Ethiopian militia, yes, but many were brutally killed by EDF forces as well. The EDF was responsible for crimes against humanity including rape and other forms of sexual violence. And the EDF remains in Western Tigray and Amhara today, despite language in the Pretoria Agreement insisting on its departure from Ethiopia. It massacred hundreds of Tigrayans in Adwa just days before the agreement was signed.
It was not only Eritrean conscripts who invaded Tigray during the war, however. Some of the thousands of Somali ‘recruits’ whose so-called training was arranged by the administration of Former Somali President Mohamed Abdullahi Farmaajo in Asmara were also deployed to fight in northern Ethiopia. Despite this situation, Isaias somehow managed to convince the current Federal Government of Somalia to send more recruits for training in Eritrea in advance of phase two of its war on Al-Shabaab extremists, the same militant group with which Asmara has flirted for many years. Simultaneously, Isaias is pushing hard for his reinstatement into the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD), while courting Russia and China. How can any of this benefit the Horn?
Eritrea’s reaction to the Sudan conflict is equally concerning, if unsurprising. The Vice President of Sudan’s Sovereignty Council, Malik Agar, in a visit to Eritrea in early July, revealed that Isaias viewed peace negotiations as “political bazaars,” stating that “[external] intervention would only exacerbate the complexities.” The idea that Eritrea is somehow serenely uninvolved in conflict in Sudan is laughable. Its ties with the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF), currently waging another campaign of ethnic cleansing in Darfur, are well-known. Its leader, General Mohamed ‘Hemedti’ Dagalo, visited Isaias in March, just weeks before the outbreak of armed conflict in Sudan. The two men share a similarly brutal and exploitative outlook with little regard for human life. Isaias is no doubt now examining Sudan’s tragic conflagration to see how it can benefit him most.
Perhaps the hardest question about Eritrea is; how can we stop Asmara from both devastating its own people and negatively impacting its neighbours? International actors ask themselves this question every day. Yet governments, international institutions and foreign mining companies still engage with Eritrea as if it’s a rational actor. It’s not. It’s time to disengage and pull the plug on the support that continues to hold up one of the most repressive governments in the world.
By the Ethiopian Cable team
Gain unlimited access to all our Editorials. Unlock Full Access to Our Expert Editorials — Trusted Insights, Unlimited Reading.
Create your Sahan account LoginUnlock lifetime access to all our Premium editorial content
The 19th-century Russian novelist Fyodor Dostoevsky wrote in his novel, The Brothers Karamazov: “Above all, do not lie to yourself. A man who lies to himself and listens to his own lie comes to a point where he does not discern any truth either in himself or anywhere around him.” In Somalia today, we are suffering because our head of state has lied to himself so much so, that Dostoevsky had alluded to, he has reached a point where he does not discern any truth either in himself or anywhere around him. However, before we delve into the nature or purpose of the lie and its grave national, regional, and international consequences, a bit of history is warranted on Somalia as a nation-state.
In September 2025, Feisal Mohammed Ali was arrested for possession and trading in two rhino horns worth USD 63,000. This was not the first time that this smuggler had seen the bars of a Kenyan prison cell. On 22 July 2016, Feisal - described as an “ivory smuggling kingpin” - received a 20-year prison sentence and fined USD 150,000 for dealing 314 pieces of ivory. Weighing over two tonnes, the ivory was estimated to have come from around 120 elephants. Hailed as a turning point in Kenya’s pioneering crackdown on Illegal Wildlife Trade (IWT), Feisal’s incarceration became proof of the country’s commitment to safeguarding its wildlife. This frail pillar came crashing down in August 2018 when Feisal was released following the acquittal of his sentence due to alleged use of tampered evidence by the prosecution.
On Monday, a politician widely regarded as Ankara’s primary proxy in Somalia was inaugurated as a Member of Parliament (MP) under circumstances that Somali citizens and political observers are denouncing as a brazen institutional theft. This unprecedented case of electoral misconduct occurs in the twilight of the current parliament’s mandate, signaling a deep-seated crisis in legislative integrity.
The sparks from the Middle East's conflagration have set Ethiopia's laboured fuel industry ablaze, and the country is grinding to a halt. Ongoing geopolitical and fiscal shocks emanating from the US/Israel war with Iran—and the spill-over across the Gulf—have left few regions untouched. With no satisfactory end in sight, the decades-old—if creaking—US-underpinned security architectThe sparks from the Middle East's conflagration have set Ethiopia's laboured fuel industry ablaze, and the country is grinding to a halt. Ongoing geopolitical and fiscal shocks emanating from the US/Israel war with Iran—and the spill-over across the Gulf—have left few regions untouched. With no satisfactory end in sight, the decades-old—if creaking—US-underpinned security architecture in the Middle East has been upended, as have the globalised hydrocarbon networks that long served as the financial lifeblood of energy-importing states.
Apathy pervades the Djiboutian population. A week tomorrow, on April 10, the country will head to the polls, with President Ismaïl Omar Guelleh seeking a 6th— essentially uncontested — term in office. With his coronation inevitable, his family's dynastic rule over this rentier city-state will be extended once more. But in a region wracked by armed conflict and geopolitical contestation, the ageing Guelleh's capacity to manage the familial, ethnic, and regional fractures within and without grows ever more complicated. And Djibouti's apparent stability is no product of institutional strength, but rather an increasingly fractious balance of external rents and coercive control-- underpinned by geopolitical relevance.
In the 17th century, the Ottoman polymath Kâtip Çelebi penned 'The Gift to the Great on Naval Campaigns', a great tome that analysed the history of Ottoman naval warfare at a moment when Constantinople sought to reclaim maritime supremacy over European powers.
Why have one mega-dam when you can have three more? Details are scarce, but Ethiopia has unveiled plans to build three more dams on the Blue Nile, just a few months after the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) was completed.
Villa Somalia has prevailed in Baidoa. After weeks of ratcheting tensions, South West State President Abdiaziz Laftagareen proved a paper tiger this morning, unable to resist the massed forces backed by Mogadishu. After several hours of fighting, Somali National Army (SNA) forces and allied Rahanweyne militias now control most of Baidoa and, thus, the future of South West. In turn, Laftagareen is believed to have retreated to the protection of the Ethiopian military at Baidoa's airport, with the bilateral forces having avoided the conflict today.
Last October, Al-Shabaab Inqimasin (suicide assault infantry) overran a National Intelligence and Security Agency (NISA) base in Mogadishu, freeing several high-ranking jihadist detainees and destroying substantial quantities of intel. A highly choreographed attack, the Inqimasin had disguised their vehicle in official NISA daub, weaving easily through the heavily guarded checkpoints dotting the capital to reach the Godka Jilicow compound before blowing open the gates with a suicide car bomb. In the months since, Al-Shabaab's prodigious media arm-- Al-Kataib Media Foundation-- has drip-fed images and videos drawn from the Godka Jilicow attack, revelling in their infiltration of Mogadishu as well as the dark history of the prison itself. And in a chilling propaganda video broadcast at Eid al-Fitr last week, it was revealed that among the Inqimasin's number was none other than the son of Al-Shabaab's spokesperson Ali Mohamed Rage, better known as Ali Dheere.