Issue No. 188

Ethiopia-Somalia Relations: The Need for Strategic Dialogue

When Hassan Sheikh Mohamud (HSM) was elected president in May 2022 many predicted bilateral relations with Ethiopia would nosedive. In his first few months, this gloomy forecast seemed inexorable. HSM’s attempts to visit Ethiopia for an audience with PM Abiy Ahmed were not making headway; scheduling hiccups were cited, officially, but popular speculation in Somalia at the time had Addis Ababa deliberately stonewalling. HSM’s trip to Egypt in July 2022 raised tensions after Cairo snuck text into a communique that suggested Somalia supported Egypt in its long-running dispute with Ethiopia over the Grand Renaissance Dam (GERD). Addis appeared to interpret HSM’s visit and the communique as hostile and provocative, reinforcing suspicions that the Somali president was warming up to Egypt. Mogadishu asserted that it was neutral on the GERD and that the text inserted into the communique was inadvertent, but this didn’t wash with the Abiy administration. In apparent retaliation, Addis further reduced its contact with Mogadishu, instead deepening its ties with Hargeisa and Somali regional states whose leaders were antagonistic towards HSM. New security pacts with South West State and Puntland, as well as Somaliland, rattled Mogadishu.

As tensions escalated between Mogadishu and Addis, Cairo moved to exploit the situation. Egypt revived and expanded its scholarship programme with Somalia. It provided shipments of arms to support Somalia’s offensive against Al-Shabaab and offered training to hundreds of Somali recruits. Cairo established a plan to evacuate wounded Somali soldiers and treat them in Egyptian military hospitals. This deepening security cooperation further aggravated Addis.

Yet the situation is not catastrophic. Bilateral relations have continued between Somalia and Ethiopia, for the most part cordial. Ethiopia has maintained its policy of visa-free access to Ethiopia for Somali nationals. Addis is deemed by most Somalis as a welcoming city and has become a major transit hub for Somalis transiting to other countries. Ethiopian Airlines operates flights to major cities in Somalia. Ethiopia remains one of the strongest advocates for lifting the UN arms embargo on Somalia. And Addis has deployed thousands of troops to Somalia to prepare for the next major offensive against Al-Shabaab.
 
But Egypt still looms large in Ethiopia-Somalia relations. Addis regards Cairo as a strategic foe and pre-eminent competitor in Somalia. Ethiopians speculate that Egypt’s end game is to establish a military base in Somalia – a charge strenuously denied by the current Somali government. The instinct to keep Somalia firmly in Ethiopia’s corner has never been stronger.

In fact, HSM is keen to project openness in his foreign policy and to diversify Mogadishu’s regional and international ties. But his priority is to maintain healthy and cooperative ties with his two closest neighbours – Kenya and Ethiopia. Somali officials have said that rebuilding ties with Egypt stems from the President’s principled view that Somalia should be a friend to all and an enemy to none. They have said that HSM believes steering an independent foreign policy safeguards Somalia’s national interest and inoculates it from the destabilising impact of regional rivalries. In a fraught geopolitical context characterised by acute zero-sum competition, this can easily be misconstrued as opportunism or lack of commitment to specific partnerships.

Somalia is a member of the Arab League. One of the rituals of this organisation is to collectively reiterate its support for Egypt and its use of the Nile, even when individual member states may hold a more nuanced or contrary opinion. The Arab League rarely votes on key decisions. The UAE is Ethiopia’s closest strategic partner there. Like Somalia, it often signs off on pro-Egypt text, precisely because it is a diplomatic ritual that requires no commitment; but more importantly, this should not preclude strong and pragmatic relations with Ethiopia. Addis would do well to ignore these arcane and meaningless texts.

There are a number of Somali officials whose families reside in Egypt. Among them is NISA Director General Mahad Salad, reputed to be one of Somalia’s most influential figures. He frequently travels to Cairo and is rumoured to be the architect of the growing security partnership between Somalia and Egypt.

Ethiopia and Somalia are both crucial to stability in the wider Horn of Africa. To dispel the current suspicions and establish strong, predictable, and cooperative relations, the two should begin a series of high-level strategic talks. Each should also compartmentalise, avoiding the use of a simple lens through which to view the other and the complex, diverse, and dynamic relationships of the region. Mogadishu can accommodate Ethiopia's security concerns, and Addis can live with a more confident and prosperous Somalia.

By the Ethiopian Cable team