Issue No. 188

Published 11 Jul 2023

Ethiopia-Somalia Relations: The Need for Strategic Dialogue

Published on 11 Jul 2023 17:15 min

Ethiopia-Somalia Relations: The Need for Strategic Dialogue

When Hassan Sheikh Mohamud (HSM) was elected president in May 2022 many predicted bilateral relations with Ethiopia would nosedive. In his first few months, this gloomy forecast seemed inexorable. HSM’s attempts to visit Ethiopia for an audience with PM Abiy Ahmed were not making headway; scheduling hiccups were cited, officially, but popular speculation in Somalia at the time had Addis Ababa deliberately stonewalling. HSM’s trip to Egypt in July 2022 raised tensions after Cairo snuck text into a communique that suggested Somalia supported Egypt in its long-running dispute with Ethiopia over the Grand Renaissance Dam (GERD). Addis appeared to interpret HSM’s visit and the communique as hostile and provocative, reinforcing suspicions that the Somali president was warming up to Egypt. Mogadishu asserted that it was neutral on the GERD and that the text inserted into the communique was inadvertent, but this didn’t wash with the Abiy administration. In apparent retaliation, Addis further reduced its contact with Mogadishu, instead deepening its ties with Hargeisa and Somali regional states whose leaders were antagonistic towards HSM. New security pacts with South West State and Puntland, as well as Somaliland, rattled Mogadishu.

As tensions escalated between Mogadishu and Addis, Cairo moved to exploit the situation. Egypt revived and expanded its scholarship programme with Somalia. It provided shipments of arms to support Somalia’s offensive against Al-Shabaab and offered training to hundreds of Somali recruits. Cairo established a plan to evacuate wounded Somali soldiers and treat them in Egyptian military hospitals. This deepening security cooperation further aggravated Addis.

Yet the situation is not catastrophic. Bilateral relations have continued between Somalia and Ethiopia, for the most part cordial. Ethiopia has maintained its policy of visa-free access to Ethiopia for Somali nationals. Addis is deemed by most Somalis as a welcoming city and has become a major transit hub for Somalis transiting to other countries. Ethiopian Airlines operates flights to major cities in Somalia. Ethiopia remains one of the strongest advocates for lifting the UN arms embargo on Somalia. And Addis has deployed thousands of troops to Somalia to prepare for the next major offensive against Al-Shabaab.
 
But Egypt still looms large in Ethiopia-Somalia relations. Addis regards Cairo as a strategic foe and pre-eminent competitor in Somalia. Ethiopians speculate that Egypt’s end game is to establish a military base in Somalia – a charge strenuously denied by the current Somali government. The instinct to keep Somalia firmly in Ethiopia’s corner has never been stronger.

In fact, HSM is keen to project openness in his foreign policy and to diversify Mogadishu’s regional and international ties. But his priority is to maintain healthy and cooperative ties with his two closest neighbours – Kenya and Ethiopia. Somali officials have said that rebuilding ties with Egypt stems from the President’s principled view that Somalia should be a friend to all and an enemy to none. They have said that HSM believes steering an independent foreign policy safeguards Somalia’s national interest and inoculates it from the destabilising impact of regional rivalries. In a fraught geopolitical context characterised by acute zero-sum competition, this can easily be misconstrued as opportunism or lack of commitment to specific partnerships.

Somalia is a member of the Arab League. One of the rituals of this organisation is to collectively reiterate its support for Egypt and its use of the Nile, even when individual member states may hold a more nuanced or contrary opinion. The Arab League rarely votes on key decisions. The UAE is Ethiopia’s closest strategic partner there. Like Somalia, it often signs off on pro-Egypt text, precisely because it is a diplomatic ritual that requires no commitment; but more importantly, this should not preclude strong and pragmatic relations with Ethiopia. Addis would do well to ignore these arcane and meaningless texts.

There are a number of Somali officials whose families reside in Egypt. Among them is NISA Director General Mahad Salad, reputed to be one of Somalia’s most influential figures. He frequently travels to Cairo and is rumoured to be the architect of the growing security partnership between Somalia and Egypt.

Ethiopia and Somalia are both crucial to stability in the wider Horn of Africa. To dispel the current suspicions and establish strong, predictable, and cooperative relations, the two should begin a series of high-level strategic talks. Each should also compartmentalise, avoiding the use of a simple lens through which to view the other and the complex, diverse, and dynamic relationships of the region. Mogadishu can accommodate Ethiopia's security concerns, and Addis can live with a more confident and prosperous Somalia.

By the Ethiopian Cable team

To continue reading, create a free account or log in.

Gain unlimited access to all our Editorials. Unlock Full Access to Our Expert Editorials — Trusted Insights, Unlimited Reading.

Create your Sahan account Login

Unlock lifetime access to all our Premium editorial content

You may also be interested in

Issue No. 946
The Reckoning: Breakdown of Somalia’s Third Republic
The Somali Wire

The 19th-century Russian novelist Fyodor Dostoevsky wrote in his novel, The Brothers Karamazov: “Above all, do not lie to yourself. A man who lies to himself and listens to his own lie comes to a point where he does not discern any truth either in himself or anywhere around him.” In Somalia today, we are suffering because our head of state has lied to himself so much so, that Dostoevsky had alluded to, he has reached a point where he does not discern any truth either in himself or anywhere around him. However, before we delve into the nature or purpose of the lie and its grave national, regional, and international consequences, a bit of history is warranted on Somalia as a nation-state.


18:55 min read 10 Apr
Issue No. 124
A Trade That Won't Die
The Horn Edition

In September 2025, Feisal Mohammed Ali was arrested for possession and trading in two rhino horns worth USD 63,000. This was not the first time that this smuggler had seen the bars of a Kenyan prison cell. On 22 July 2016, Feisal - described as an “ivory smuggling kingpin” - received a 20-year prison sentence and fined USD 150,000 for dealing 314 pieces of ivory. Weighing over two tonnes, the ivory was estimated to have come from around 120 elephants. Hailed as a turning point in Kenya’s pioneering crackdown on Illegal Wildlife Trade (IWT), Feisal’s incarceration became proof of the country’s commitment to safeguarding its wildlife. This frail pillar came crashing down in August 2018 when Feisal was released following the acquittal of his sentence due to alleged use of tampered evidence by the prosecution.


30:03 min read 09 Apr
Issue No. 945
The Baidoa Electoral Heist - The Turkish Connection
The Somali Wire

On Monday, a politician widely regarded as Ankara’s primary proxy in Somalia was inaugurated as a Member of Parliament (MP) under circumstances that Somali citizens and political observers are denouncing as a brazen institutional theft. This unprecedented case of electoral misconduct occurs in the twilight of the current parliament’s mandate, signaling a deep-seated crisis in legislative integrity.


6:32 min read 08 Apr
Issue No. 326
Ethiopia Grinds to a Halt
The Ethiopian Cable

The sparks from the Middle East's conflagration have set Ethiopia's laboured fuel industry ablaze, and the country is grinding to a halt. Ongoing geopolitical and fiscal shocks emanating from the US/Israel war with Iran—and the spill-over across the Gulf—have left few regions untouched. With no satisfactory end in sight, the decades-old—if creaking—US-underpinned security architectThe sparks from the Middle East's conflagration have set Ethiopia's laboured fuel industry ablaze, and the country is grinding to a halt. Ongoing geopolitical and fiscal shocks emanating from the US/Israel war with Iran—and the spill-over across the Gulf—have left few regions untouched. With no satisfactory end in sight, the decades-old—if creaking—US-underpinned security architecture in the Middle East has been upended, as have the globalised hydrocarbon networks that long served as the financial lifeblood of energy-importing states.


33:50 min read 07 Apr
Issue No. 123
Another Election and Djibouti's Succession Problem
The Horn Edition

Apathy pervades the Djiboutian population. A week tomorrow, on April 10, the country will head to the polls, with President Ismaïl Omar Guelleh seeking a 6th— essentially uncontested — term in office. With his coronation inevitable, his family's dynastic rule over this rentier city-state will be extended once more. But in a region wracked by armed conflict and geopolitical contestation, the ageing Guelleh's capacity to manage the familial, ethnic, and regional fractures within and without grows ever more complicated. And Djibouti's apparent stability is no product of institutional strength, but rather an increasingly fractious balance of external rents and coercive control-- underpinned by geopolitical relevance.


23:43 min read 02 Apr
Issue No. 944
Türkiye's Deepwater Reach in Somalia
The Somali Wire

In the 17th century, the Ottoman polymath Kâtip Çelebi penned 'The Gift to the Great on Naval Campaigns', a great tome that analysed the history of Ottoman naval warfare at a moment when Constantinople sought to reclaim maritime supremacy over European powers.


21:14 min read 01 Apr
Issue No. 325
Dammed If They Do
The Ethiopian Cable

Why have one mega-dam when you can have three more? Details are scarce, but Ethiopia has unveiled plans to build three more dams on the Blue Nile, just a few months after the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) was completed.


14:12 min read 31 Mar
Issue No. 943
Baidoa Falls and Federal Power Prevails
The Somali Wire

Villa Somalia has prevailed in Baidoa. After weeks of ratcheting tensions, South West State President Abdiaziz Laftagareen proved a paper tiger this morning, unable to resist the massed forces backed by Mogadishu. After several hours of fighting, Somali National Army (SNA) forces and allied Rahanweyne militias now control most of Baidoa and, thus, the future of South West. In turn, Laftagareen is believed to have retreated to the protection of the Ethiopian military at Baidoa's airport, with the bilateral forces having avoided the conflict today.


18 min read 30 Mar
Issue No. 942
A Son Sent to Die in Jihad
The Somali Wire

Last October, Al-Shabaab Inqimasin (suicide assault infantry) overran a National Intelligence and Security Agency (NISA) base in Mogadishu, freeing several high-ranking jihadist detainees and destroying substantial quantities of intel. A highly choreographed attack, the Inqimasin had disguised their vehicle in official NISA daub, weaving easily through the heavily guarded checkpoints dotting the capital to reach the Godka Jilicow compound before blowing open the gates with a suicide car bomb. In the months since, Al-Shabaab's prodigious media arm-- Al-Kataib Media Foundation-- has drip-fed images and videos drawn from the Godka Jilicow attack, revelling in their infiltration of Mogadishu as well as the dark history of the prison itself. And in a chilling propaganda video broadcast at Eid al-Fitr last week, it was revealed that among the Inqimasin's number was none other than the son of Al-Shabaab's spokesperson Ali Mohamed Rage, better known as Ali Dheere.


22:20 min read 27 Mar
Scroll