Issue No. 153

Published 28 Feb 2023

Eritrea: naïve expectations for unlikely change

Published on 28 Feb 2023 19:59 min
Eritrea: naïve expectations for unlikely change
 
It is perplexing to characterize the relationship between Eritrea and the United States. Their formal diplomatic relationship is limited. The US does not provide any bilateral assistance to Eritrea, nor does it have any military-to-military cooperation. There is relatively little trade between the two countries. Eritrea is represented in Washington and the US is represented in Asmara by a Chargé d’Affaires, not an ambassador. In November 2021, the US imposed financial sanctions on Eritrea’s ruling political party, the People’s Front for Democracy and Justice (PFDJ), its affiliate companies—the Hidri Trust and Red Sea Trading Corporation, the Eritrean Defense Forces, and two senior Eritrean officials, pursuant to Executive Order 14046. 
 
The US government has cited four broad interests in Eritrea: (1) preventing Eritrea from undermining regional stability; (2) urging progress toward a democratic political culture; (3) addressing human rights including religious freedom; and (4) promoting economic reform and prosperity. These interests are far from the Eritrean reality. 
 
Eritrea has never played a positive role in the stability of the Horn of Africa. Isaias Afwerki’s rapprochement with Abiy Ahmed in July 2018 gave naïve Horn watchers a fleeting thrill of possibility. Recent events, however, have crushed that misplaced optimism. In less than two years, the peace agreement has shown its true nature as a war pact. Without Eritrean troops, Ethiopia’s defense forces could have been crushed in Tigray. In an audacious show of arrogance, Isaias placed blame for the war in the lap of the US, saying in an interview on 22 February 2023, “In our view, this was not really a TPLF agenda; but essentially the agenda of Washington.”
 
Each passing year takes Eritrea farther from a democratic political culture. Eritrea is a totalitarian state without legal dissent, free press, elections, or a constitution. Human rights have no part in Eritrean society. The policy of indefinite national service, including compulsory military service, requires all male and female adults under the age of 40 to be available to work at the direction of the state. According to Human Rights Watch, in practice, adults older than 40 are also forced to serve. A United Nations. Commission of Inquiry labeled Eritrea’s national service “enslavement.” The Eritrean government has made all but four religions in the country ‘illegal.’
 
It should come as no surprise that in a country of such repression, the economy is a disaster. Eritrea is chronically food insecure. There is no functioning infrastructure. The government restricts Eritreans’ access to their own money. Citizens are limited to withdrawing just over 300 USD monthly.
 
These basic facts about Eritrea are generally well-known. What is less understood are the reasons why the US and other governments think they can press Eritrea to cease fomenting regional instability and begin respecting the fundamental rights of its people. Former US Chargé d’Affaires to Eritrea Steve Walker wrote in an article published by The Atlantic on 5 September 2022, “The case of Eritrea shows that totalitarian systems are inherently toxic and that no amount of ‘engagement’ will change them.”
 
The international community cannot afford to ignore Eritrea’s deleterious regional and domestic policies, nor can it fall back on the same naive expectations for unlikely change. Welcoming Eritrea back into IGAD would be a mistake. Allowing Eritrea to pull out of Tigray in its own time would be another. Carefully assessing Eritrea’s current regional strategy before making any sudden moves toward Asmara would make much more sense.
 
By the Ethiopian Cable team.

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