Issue No. 149

Returning Eritrea into the regional fold
 

Last week Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki was in the Kenyan capital Nairobi on a rare two-day official visit. The visit marks a major thaw in relations between Nairobi and Asmara. A raft of economic agreements were signed. Kenyan President William Ruto said the two sides had “agreed to permanently abolish visa requirements between Kenya and Eritrea as part of our plan to facilitate growth in trade and connectivity between people and business.” Presumably, this meeting signals a tentative push to welcome Eritrea back into the regional fold. The Kenyan president also disclosed his country will reopen its embassy in Asmara.
 
Kenyan National Security Advisor Monica Juma on 10 February posted an enthusiastic message on Twitter that also signaled a tentative regional push to normalise relations with Eritrea. Dr. Juma welcomed the Red Sea state back into the fold, writing, “Another milestone in our region as Eritrea returns to IGAD. Because we are inextricably linked, by heritage, history, geography, culture and aspirations, our destiny is ONE! Only when we journey together can we guarantee the future of our people and region.” 
 
The Eritrea president said, at a joint news conference with his Kenyan counterpart at the State House, “We have to work harder and faster to compensate for what we have lost in the past two decades. We need to reconsider our membership in IGAD. I readily say there is no question about that. We are coming back to IGAD with the idea of revitalizing this regional integration organization.” 
 
“We also need a functional, real organization for the region. Otherwise, goodwill and ideals cannot be productive. We need a functional and result-oriented regional organization,” he added.
 
The Kenyan visit was also not without a more interesting side. At the news conference, Afwerki, visibly irritated, struggled to respond to tough questions from reporters, and ducked sensitive topics. 
 
“You talk about the withdrawal or not of Eritrean troops. It is nonsense. Why are you bothered about Eritrean troops who are there or are not there, who come out or do not come out? Let us assume that the peace process in Ethiopia is proceeding without obstacles. We want to see the Pretoria and Nairobi agreements implemented on the ground for the benefit of Ethiopia and the whole region,” Isaias responded to a question about why Eritrea was not pulling its combat forces from Tigray.
 
“Do not use Eritrea as a pretext for the problems in Ethiopia and the region. Do not drag us into the situations. If you do not want these Pretoria and Nairobi agreements to be implemented, do not make Eritrea’s presence in Ethiopia a pretext. This has nothing to do with the implementation of the peace agreements,” he said.
 
The Eritrean President dismissed credible reports of human rights abuses in the Tigray war as ‘fantasy.' “Everybody is talking about human rights violations, rape, and looting. This is a fantasy in the minds of those who are manufacturing misinformation. Go ask those who are fabricating disinformation. It is a fantasy of those who want to derail any peace process on the ground from achieving its goal.”

For a reclusive leader unused to probing media questions, the news conference must have been agonising—a culture shock of sorts. It is likely, as some sources have suggested, that Afwerki berated his own media team and officials afterwards. But far from being a ‘set-up’ by his hosts, it is almost certain the freewheeling news conference and open style questioning was simply the way Kenya typically organises media events involving high-level foreign visitors. 
 
A day after he returned home, Afwerki appeared on Eritrean national television, seemingly comfortable in a controlled setting where questions must had been carefully scripted to avoid any surprise. On the broadcast, Afwerki was his feisty and combative self. He launched into a tirade against the TPLF and the US, and alleged the peace accord in Ethiopia was crafted and rushed by Washington to save the TPLF from defeat.
 
The question of Eritrea and how to deal with it is as crucial as it is vexing for the Horn of Africa. Djibouti, which hosts IGAD headquarters, is hostile to the readmission of Eritrea. Sudan may be lukewarm or not well-disposed to the idea, while Uganda is likely ambivalent. Kenya, now the key diplomatic power in the region, hopes that giving Eritrea a resounding endorsement and touting the prospect of its regional inclusion could enhance Kenya’s leverage and influence. The overriding calculations seem to be the possibility of reconnecting Eritrea with the regional and multilateral structures of peace-making and stabilisation, nudging Afwerki to pull his forces from Tigray, and supporting the peace process in Ethiopia, which Kenya helped mediate and broker. 
 
These all sound sensible, but also likely to quickly run into old problems. Afwerki is not the type of leader who is amenable to flexibility, collegiality, pragmatism, or persuasion. He has a set view of the world, and he has been doggedly resistant to modifying his conduct and behaviour. 
 
The risk is high that Kenya’s new policy of openness towards Eritrea, far from incentivising its good behaviour, may simply embolden Afwerki to further his zero-sum geopolitical calculus with renewed vigour.