Issue No. 147

Abiy Ahmed and Mustafe Cagjar: Two Sides of the Same Coin 
 

In 2018, Ethiopian Prime Minister (PM) Abiy Ahmed unexpectedly rose to power amid increasing violence and instability throughout the country. In the beginning, he was widely praised by Ethiopians and the international community for his popular reforms and his aura of youthful energy. He was lauded for making peace with Eritrea’s Isaias Afewerki and was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize in 2019.
 
In a similar twist of fate, a young technocrat and activist from the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (UNOCHA), Mustafe Cagjar, was parachuted into the Presidential Office of the Somali Regional State (SRS) in 2018. With their new interim president, the Somali people breathed a sigh of relief after the forced departure of strongman Abdi Illey. In the early days of his presidency, President Mustafe Cagjar showed unexpected political acumen and flexibility. This was no small feat in a region known for insecurity, mass killings and other human rights abuses, armed conflict, poverty, marginalization, and political instability. 
 
However, the relief felt by the Somali people was short-lived. After three years in power, President Cagjar was elected to office in a vote marred by significant irregularities and accusations of fraud.
 
There are similarities between the Ethiopian prime minister and the Somali region’s president. Both PM Abiy and President Cagjar were relative unknowns, and both unexpectedly came to power. PM Abiy immediately distanced himself from his old bosses, the Tigrayan Peoples’ Liberation Front (TPLF), and vowed to eliminate them from Ethiopia's political arena. Similarly, President Cagjar fought with his own political base, the Ogaden National Liberation Front (ONLF), which had signed a truce with the Ethiopian government 2018. Today, both Ethiopia and the SRS are in disarray— with violent ethnic and religious clashes, an economy in shambles, repression of the media, widespread corruption, and increasing authoritarianism.
 
For over a century, the Somali Regional State was a virtual military garrison, bedeviled by unrelenting conflict, armed insurgencies, and military crackdowns. Under successive repressive Ethiopian administrations, Somalis expressed their desire to succeed from the Abyssinian empire and become part of a greater Somalia. 
 
Under the Ethiopian Peoples’ Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) government led by the late Prime Minister Meles Zenawi, the SRS experienced a temporary respite; this was due to the ethno-federalist model that gave Ethiopia’s regions autonomy and self-rule. However, 27 years of economic growth, political stability, and social gains under the EPRDF ended, and the country under PM Abiy has reverted to authoritarian rule.
 
The value of the Ethiopian birr has tanked due to massive corruption and the disappearance of hard currency from the country. The war against Tigray devoured the country’s budget. Ironically, the prime minister last year accused Mustafe and his government of corruption, including money laundering activities, in partnership with neighbouring Somaliland. PM Abiy has also accused the SRS of selling subsidized fuel to Somaliland and Puntland. Last year, the Ethiopian federal government could no longer afford to continue its fuel subsidy, and the price of fuel was hiked by 20%. 
 
Repression in the SRS escalated last week when its information bureau suspended 15 media outlets, accusing reporters of working without licenses from the Ethiopian Media Authority. These outlets include: BBC Somali, MM TV, Universal TV, Horyaal TV, Sahan TV, Five TV, Horn Cable TV, RTN TV, Universal TV, and Goobjoog TV. Last year, the only privately owned television station, Nabad TV, owned by the family of the former Ethiopian Minister of Women's and Children's Youth Affairs, Filsan Abdullahi, was taken off the air. President Cagjar and his associates accused Nabad TV of ethnic incitement. The owner and management of Nabad TV were not charged or allowed to defend themselves against this malicious accusation.  
 
Arbitrary detention without due process is becoming common in the SRS. The latest incident was the arbitrary arrest and bogus conviction of Siraaje Adam, a Somali Ethiopian activist and civil servant who spent most of his life in public service. Mr. Siraaj has been an outspoken critic of the former SRS regime led by Abdi Iley, as well as the current President. Coincidentally, Mr. Siraaj, Abdi Iley, and Mustafe Cagjar all come from the same region, Jarar, in the SRS. 
 
Ethiopia under Abiy Ahmed is experiencing multiple violent ethnic conflicts (in Oromia, Amhara, the SRS, Afar), political turmoil, and religious conflict in the Ethiopian Orthodox Church.  The Somali region is dealing with a corrupt government, nepotism, drought, and its worst economic crisis in decades in Ethiopia's third most populous regional state. 
 
Both Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and SRS President Mustafe Cagjar should be held accountable-- for the wars they’ve carried out, for ongoing corruption, and for the disastrous economic policies committed under their watch.

By the Ethiopia Cable Team