The Tigray war was not the first sign of a decayed international order, but it was undoubtedly one of the bloodiest. Ethnic cleansing, crimes against humanity, war crimes, mass sexual violence, induced starvation, telecommunications blackout, mass killings, and more besides defined the war on the Tigrayan people, carried out by the Ethiopian government and its Eritrean allies and Amhara paramilitaries. At least 600,000 people perished in the two-year conflict between 2020 and 2022, and over 120,000 women and girls were estimated to have been raped. And over two and a half years since the fighting ceased, harrowing stories and reports continue to emerge almost every day from the conflict, only adding to the reams of evidence stacking up against particular soldiers, units, and commanders. However, under the current federal administration and with another conflict involving Asmara and Addis looming —this time against one another —such questions of justice and accountability appear more distant than ever before.
Beyond the Terror Frame: Understanding the OLA In early February, Kenyan police launched 'Operation Ondoa Jangili' against the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) insurgents in Marsabit and Isiolo counties in northern Kenya, in conjunction with Ethiopian forces. Having signed a security cooperation agreement in August 2024 to combat cross-border threats, both Nairobi and Addis have sought to tie the OLA insurgency to Al-Shabaab, and consequently paint the Oromo nationalist forces as 'terrorists.' But to frame Oromo nationalism and struggle simply through the lens of counter-terrorism obscures a much more complex reality, and does an injustice to the Oromo people.
Ethiopia’s Cycle of Violence Spins On In October 2023, in its final report, the UN's International Commission of Human Rights Experts on Ethiopia (ICHREE) urged the international community to redouble its efforts to protect civilians and hold perpetrators "accountable" for the "staggering" human rights abuses that had been carried out in Ethiopia. Eighteen months later, these calls have gone entirely unheeded, while the Commission's warning that there is "no deterrence for future atrocity crimes" has borne fruit in a number of conflict-riddled regions of the country. It was a severe error to bow to pressure for the ICHREE to close prematurely-- leaving it unable to form a determination on the question of genocide in Tigray-- and one that has let down past and future victims of breaches of International Humanitarian Law (IHL) in Ethiopia
Between 19-22 February, several major Oromo opposition parties met in Addis to discuss Oromia's sustained upheaval, including the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) insurgency. For several years now, the region has been gripped by still-worsening humanitarian, political, and security crises, while the regional opposition has been essentially co-opted into the government or splintered and unable to mount a response to the deteriorating situation. In this light, the two principal Oromo opposition parties-- the Oromo Liberation Front (OLF) and Oromo Federalist Congress (OFC)-- met in Addis alongside representatives from the ruling Prosperity Party and Oromo civil society actors.