With over a decade of experience, Sahan provides expert security analysis, risk management, and policy advisory across the Horn of Africa—backed by unique access to key networks and real-time insights into regional threats.
Sahan supports good governance across the Horn of Africa by facilitating inclusive political processes, producing evidence-based insights, and guiding institutional reform through locally grounded, transparent approaches.
Sahan provides strategic geopolitical research and analysis on the Horn of Africa, examining external influence, political transitions, and regional security to support informed, evidence-based policymaking.
Sahan offers expert-led professional development seminars—both public and customized—equipping policymakers, diplomats, and analysts with practical tools and insights to address political, security, and geopolitical challenges in the Horn of Africa.
Since October 2020, the Somali Wire has led the way in reporting accurate and timely news from Somalia and beyond. Offering coverage of politics, security, economics and more, this bulletin remains one of the most widely cited and respected sources on Somalia.
Launched in August 2021, the Ethiopian Cable delves into Ethiopia’s complex political and socio-economic landscape. Published every Tuesday, each edition features key stories translated from Amharic and Tigrinya, providing context-rich coverage of current events.
The Horn Edition, launched in September 2023, casts a spotlight on developments across the wider Horn of Africa. Created in response to the conflict in Sudan, it provides a region-wide perspective through curated and summarised stories from Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, South Sudan, and Sudan.
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5 The Research and Evidence Facility (REF)
Ethiopia is fast approaching another grim anniversary-- two years of the Fano insurgency in the Amhara region, an armed conflict that shows no sign of abating and that has exacted a savage humanitarian toll. In August 2023, a disparate collection of former militiamen from the Tigray war, former Amhara Special Forces, and disgruntled farmers under the banner of 'Fano' militias escalated their operations, attacking and seizing government buildings and military posts in the Amhara region. In the preceding months, the government had sought to suppress elements of their former allies, seeking to arrest and disarm the varied movement with prominent strains of Amhara nationalism, but to no avail. And in the two years since Fano fighters briefly seized Lalibela on 1 August 2023, much of the Amhara region has witnessed a near-total breakdown in governance and law and order, with several thousand killed and many tens of thousands displaced.
With national elections anticipated in Ethiopia in 2026 and the country facing immense turmoil, it is worth considering how they might shape up. While a year is plenty of time, there is little to currently suggest that they will be free, fair, or open, but instead-- much like their predecessors-- a highly choreographed affair that can imbue little to no legitimacy on the ruling Prosperity Party. Instead, internal armed conflict, shrunken democratic space, and the ongoing throes of state contraction are all highly likely to frustrate the democratic will of the Ethiopian people. And despite an appearance of contestation that may be permitted at the ballot box itself, the possibilities of genuine political alternation will be virtually none, with PM Abiy Ahmed having cemented his grip on power since the last set of polls in 2021.
On 26 April 1937, the Spanish town of Guernica was reduced to rubble by German Luftwaffe bombers. Conducted in support of Franco's nationalist troops, the bombing marked a turning point in modern warfare, where civilians were considered no longer collateral damage — they were targets. A few weeks later, Pablo Picasso transformed the event into an enduring visual outcry: Guernica, a monumental black-and-white painting that captured the agony of civilians crushed beneath impersonal, mechanised violence. Nearly a century later, under a different sky — that of northern Ethiopia — the weapons have changed. Drones now replace planes, and the devastation they inflict is quieter, remote-controlled, but no less lethal. Today, the war is waged by algorithms, and yet the bodies are still real.
The factionalism that has defined Tigray's regional politics in recent months shows no sign of easing. With Getachew Reda having been ousted as Tigray Interim Administration (TIA) president in March, his replacement—Lt. Gen. Tadesse Werede—has inherited a hornet's nest of competing interests, with Addis and Asmara both dangerously seeking to ingratiate themselves amidst the looming threat of conflict. While the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) has successfully re-established its monopoly on the politics of Ethiopia's northernmost region, questions regarding the return of displaced persons, the resolution of the occupation of Western Tigray, and the party's participation in future elections remain unresolved-- and intensifying.
While international attention has been trained on the political schism within Tigray and the drumbeat of war between Ethiopia and Eritrea, the Fano insurgency in the Amhara region has escalated further. On 19 March, several of the most prominent Fano militias launched "Operation Unity" in the Amhara region, targeting dozens of Ethiopian military installations and inflicting significant casualties. The attack across Gojjam, Gondar, and Wollo demonstrated a previously unseen level of coordination between these Fano factions.