Issue No. 270

Published 11 Feb 2025

TPLF Power Struggle Rumbles On

Published on 11 Feb 2025 16:04 min
TPLF Power Struggle Rumbles On
 
Since the beginning of the year, the schism within and between the two factions of the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) and the Tigray Interim Administration (TIA) has continued to deepen. The two groups-- led respectively by TPLF Chairman Debretsion Gebremichael and TIA President Getachew Reda-- have dug in despite multiple mediation attempts. 

The latest twist was the intervention of previously publicly neutral senior Tigray Defence Force (TDF) commanders in January. For months, the security forces leadership had urged the two factions to negotiate, attempting to avoid being dragged into the increasingly corrosive rhetoric and political machinations. However, on 23 January, after a two-day closed summit, around 200 senior TDF commanders endorsed the contentious 14th Party Congress held last August by the Debretsion faction. The TDF statement proposed restructuring the TIA and criticised the body for failing in its duties to implement the Pretoria agreement and govern the northern region. Notably absent was General Tadesse Werede, the commander-in-chief and TIA vice-president, though he is nevertheless believed to be aligned with the move for a "readjustment" of the leadership. The military's public shift had been partly motivated by the competing stances towards the disarmament, demobilisation, and reintegration (DDR) process, which Debretsion has opposed while Eritrean and Amhara forces occupy Tigrayan territory. 

Following the military's intervention, Getachew responded forcefully in kind, calling it an attempted coup and stating that it "constitutes a declaration of war and lawlessness." In turn, both sides have mobilised their supporters in large-scale demonstrations. Dozens have been staged in the weeks since, with protests held in Mekelle as well as several other major towns in the Southern, Eastern, South Eastern, Central, and North Western zones. The federal government also organised a recent so-called 'peace rally' in Addis of ethnic Tigrayans, though this has been widely disregarded as staged. And amid the flying rumours of mobilising forces-- though incorrect-- fuel and essential goods prices have also risen as people stock up, with memories of the brutal blockade imposed on the northern region fresh in everyone's minds.

During the war, there were divisions and debates within the TPLF and other political groups, particularly after the retaking of Mekelle in 2021 when the party rejected forming a unity government, but it is far more divided today than it was then. Simmering tensions within the TPLF erupted into plain view in August 2024 with the holding of a TPLF Party Congress– deemed illegal and condemned by the National Electoral Board of Ethiopia (NEBE) and Getachew's faction. During the boycotted meeting, Debretsion was re-elected chairman of the party, and Getachew was ejected as deputy leader and from the Central Committee. Some ascribe the current conflict to one of pure politics, others to a motivation of the 'younger' Getachew faction to break the grip of the TPLF 'old guard' on regional politics, while the control over Tigray's lucrative gold trade has also been cited. Debretsion's faction continues to have significant financial interests in Tigray's business sector and industries. In large part, though, the Stalinist party that has dominated Tigray's politics for over 30 years has been unable to reconcile having two competing nodules of power.

For months, the divisions within Tigray have paralysed the governance of the region and the implementation of Pretoria, with both sides having attempted to direct the appointment of mayors and local officials in their strongholds. The DDR programme launched last year amid much fanfare has already been paused due to a lack of funds, and as such, over 200,000 Tigrayan fighters remain mobilised. There remain hundreds of thousands of Tigrayans stuck in grim, underfunded displacement camps in Shire and elsewhere, unable to return home due to the presence of Amhara militias and the Eritrean military-- in contravention of the Pretoria agreement. Though some initial progress was made in returning people to southern Tigray in mid-2024, that has since stalled entirely despite the promises of a total return by the end of that year. The federal government has not been compelled to fully implement Pretoria with these factions so divided, and both sides look to draw Addis to their side. The failure of the federal government to implement Pretoria is also corrosive for the prospects of peace deals elsewhere in Ethiopia, with the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) and the major Fano factions reluctant to agree upon a deal they do not believe will be implemented.

In part, this current conflict is a legacy that mirrors the divisions of 2001, where then-PM Meles Zenawi expelled several Central Committee members and consolidated his hold on the party in the aftermath of the Badme War with Eritrea. But, as then, it is not part of Tigrayan temperament or history to pick up arms against one another, despite the rhetoric emerging from certain parts of the federal government. The risk of armed conflict remains low even while the successive mediation attempts have failed. Still, the widespread perception that Getachew is aligned with the federal government has certainly not helped the backroom talks.

As the TPLF remains paralysed by these divisions, its own popularity- damaged by the war- has waned further. Many are fed up with the political fights and the drawing of Addis and Asmara into regional politics, with serious reconstruction of the region's schools, hospitals, and infrastructure still absent. Other political groups, particularly those advocating for an independent Tigray, popularity is rising, but they do not have the party machinery nor the political space to assume the responsibilities for governing. At the national level, if the schisms of the TPLF continue and it ruptures the party entirely, it will signal the death of the independent political party in Ethiopia, with the Prosperity Party utterly dominant.

Finally, the distracted TPLF and its internal divisions are allowing a resurgent Eritrea to insert itself into Tigrayan politics. Certainly, Tigray’s political fractures could not come at a worse time with the Addis-Asmara relationship having badly deteriorated and the rumblings of conflict between them still looming. With both capitals attempting to sway the factions, Tigray cannot allow itself to become a buffer zone between Addis and Asmara.
 
The Ethiopian Cable Team

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