Issue No. 269

Since its inception, Brigade N'Hamedu, also known as the 'Blue Revolution,' has focused on targeting the pro-Eritrean regime's cultural festivals-- long used to fundraise, intimidate potential opposition, and serve as propaganda tools. While Brigade N'Hamedu is not Eritrea's first diaspora-based opposition movement to challenge these notorious events, its scale and scope have set it apart from previous efforts. The movement gained particular momentum toward the end of 2022, with protests aimed at exposing and resisting the transnational and domestic repression orchestrated by the Eritrean regime and its diaspora institutions garnering significant attention.

In the West, the movement's activism has repeatedly sought to disrupt these festivals' fundraising for the regime as well as attempts to intimidate dissidents and amplify regime talking points. Their tactics have included public demonstrations, legal action taken against regime loyalists who abuse asylum systems by falsely claiming human rights abuses, and efforts to expose venues hosting fundraising events. At times, their direct response has garnered negative headlines, with violence erupting on a number of occasions between pro-and-anti-regime factions.

Concurrent with the rise of Brigade N'Hamedu, the situation inside Eritrea has significantly deteriorated since the Tigray War. During the armed conflict and since, the regime's internal repression intensified, with forced conscription and brutal crackdowns, including security forces confiscating livestock, evicting entire families, and coercing conscripts to report for duty under the threat of collective punishment. This surge in repression, combined with a worsening socio-economic crisis, has sparked a shift, with many now being driven to speak out against the regime.

Since its beginning, Brigade N'Hamedu has taken significant steps to organise, with grassroots associations and local congresses being established and strengthened in several countries. These Brigade N'Hamedu chapters are increasingly engaged in public diplomacy efforts to combat the transnational repression exerted by the Eritrean regime. This represents a transformation, as for decades, the Eritrean regime intimidated and financially exploited the diaspora through its affiliated institutions—including the YPFDJ (Youth for the People's Front for Democracy and Justice), the Eritrean Orthodox Church, and community associations. These diaspora institutions served as tools of surveillance and coercion for the regime, but now, Brigade N'Hamedu chapters are working to establish independent community associations in cities worldwide, free from the regime's influence.

Another significant development has been the establishment of a coordinating body for the movement's transnational chapters. This body, called Global Brigade N'Hamedu, is a task force formed of representatives from 17 countries, part of an ongoing dialogue to coordinate the chapters in different countries. In turn, one of the movement's most important milestones came on 27 January 2025, with a conference held in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, bringing together around 2,000 Eritrean participants. For Brigade N'Hamedu conveners, the conference was driven by the logic that the struggle against the repressive Eritrean regime must increasingly be brought closer to Eritrea's borders.

Historically, Ethiopia has served as a base for Eritrean anti-regime armed groups, particularly in the years after the 1998-2000 Badme war. The policy of isolationism by Addis towards Asmara, however, was interrupted by the now-collapsed rapprochement between the Ethiopian federal government and the Eritrean regime between 2018 and 2022. This detente ultimately failed, ending with the Pretoria Agreement after a war that claimed hundreds of thousands of Tigrayans' lives. In the end, the Eritrean regime once again exposed its destabilising role in the region, while Eritrean forces were responsible for many of the worst human rights atrocities against their neighbours. Today, amid the collapse of Addis-Asmara ties, both countries have sought to develop support for neighbouring opposition movements. For Asmara, this includes the disparate coalition of Fano militias that are waging an effective insurgency in Ethiopia's Amhara region.

The Addis Ababa conference, meanwhile, saw the participation of members from the Brigade N'Hamedu diaspora, and social media-based activists. Participants travelled from Europe, Canada, and Uganda alongside prominent artists and political activists, as well as members of the Eritrean Afar National Congress (EANC). However, the conference took place under heightened security concerns associated with a recent history of kidnappings of Eritrean pro-democracy activists from Ethiopia, as well as the Ethiopian federal government deporting Eritreans. Despite these challenges, the Addis Ababa chapter of Brigade N'Hamedu communicated its engagement with the Ethiopian federal government to ensure the safety of the travelling Eritreans. To this end, around 400 ID cards were issued to protect their members from potential security threats, and they are also working to secure the release of-- many arbitrarily-- imprisoned Eritreans.

Another notable development at the Addis Ababa conference was the participation of the EANC. For several months, Addis has also been deepening its ties with the group opposed to the Eritrean regime, which has an armed wing based in Samara in the Afar region. The EANC's endorsement of Brigade N'Hamedu and its agreement to collaborate in both political and armed struggle represents a substantial shift in the anti-regime coalition, which has been historically fractured. It has also been further underscored by reports that an armed wing of Brigade N'Hamedu will be established in Ethiopia. The opposition movement appears to be transitioning from a wholly political body focused on undermining transnational repression to an armed opposition movement-- with the support of the Ethiopian federal government.

Nonetheless, some diaspora-based Eritrean political activists remain wary of the Ethiopian government's trustworthiness, especially in light of past security incidents. While Brigade N'Hamedu has not officially commented on the specific terms of its agreement with the Ethiopian government, it is clear that discussions are ongoing, and the conference and attendants were overseen by the Ethiopian security agency. However, there is no indication of any formal Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) between the chapter and the Federal Government of Ethiopia yet.

In conclusion, the Addis conference highlighted Brigade N'Hamedu as an increasingly powerful force in the fight against the Eritrean regime. Whether it can penetrate the grip of Isaias Afwerki on the 'hermit kingdom' of Africa remains to be seen. But through its grassroots activism, strategic outreach, and growing alliances with other anti-regime groups, it has shifted the landscape of external opposition politics for Eritrea in just a handful of years.