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Somalia is politically in far better shape than when President Hassan Sheikh took office in 2012, but much of that progress threatens to unravel as the country lurches toward an uncertain and ill-prepared political transition in August 2016.}

This report, which is derived from interviews across three Kenyan counties, explores the relationships between resilience and risk to clan violence and to violent extremism in the northeast region of the country.}

On 19 August 2019, near the southern Somali port town of Kismayo, soldiers from the Kenyan and Ethiopian armies faced off warily against one another at point-blank range down the barrels of their guns.}

Russia and China have stepped up their separate diplomatic engagements with Somalia, most visibly in the last one year. Diplomatic exchanges have increased in tempo and a raft of bilateral cooperation agreements has been signed.}

Somalia has for decades been a geopolitical theatre in which external competition and rivalries have played out. In recent years, the Horn state has become an arena for rival ‘Islamic’ middle powers vying for influence and dominance.}

Climate change has become one of the defining challenges of the 21st century, reshaping political, economic, and security landscapes across the globe.}