Sequels are rarely as good as the original movie, and 'threequels' even less so. The ongoing Ugandan People's Defence Force (UPDF)-led and Somali National Army (SNA) offensive in Lower Shabelle is following the same tired plot as its predecessors, and as anticipated, it is playing out in a toe-curling fashion. First, there was the unsuccessful Operation Leopard Hunt-- to dislodge Al-Shabaab from several of the strategic 'bridge towns' of Lower Shabelle, namely Sabiid, Bariire, and Awdheegle, then there was Operation Badbaadho, to again, clear the jihadists from the towns. And now, over five years on Badbaadho, we are seeing the same story play out in Operation Silent Storm, albeit with a greatly demoralised and degraded SNA.
Every Thursday, Somalis can tune into Radio Andalus, an Al-Shabaab-affiliated radio station, to listen in to a jihadist commander wax lyrical about their upbringing and commitment to the cause. In one such recent interview with Al-Shabaab's appointed Banaadir Governor, Muse Abdi Arraale, he recounts his life, having grown up in Hargeisa before joining Waxda Al-Shabaab Al-Islamiyya (Islamic Youth Unity group) as a teenager and being imprisoned by the Siad Barre regime. Explicitly tying himself to groups beyond Al-Qaeda proper, such interviews represent an attempt to both position these extremist commanders in Somalia's Islamist history as well as humanise them. Increasingly tapping into discourses of Somali nationalism, Al-Shabaab's prolific propaganda output remains among the most sophisticated of any insurgent group. The London-based Tech Against Terrorism, which monitors extremist online content, assesses that Al-Shabaab is "the largest single producer of terrorist material on the internet."
Puntland's kinetic anti-Islamic State-Somalia (ISS) operations in the Al-Miskaad Mountains are nearing their conclusion. Launched in February, 'Operation Hilaac' (Lightning) has sought to degrade the key Daesh node led by Abdulkadir Mumin-- designated by the US as a global leader within the extremist group. Puntland-driven and backed by US and UAE airstrikes, the operations have proven highly successful, seizing significant ISS bases and inflicting considerable casualties on the jihadists, including the Head of Immigration and Foreign Fighters, Ahmed Musa Said, last month. With operations expected to soon begin winding down, Puntland officials have signalled a transition to stabilising the liberated territories, as well as looking ahead to the aptly-named 'Operation Onkod' (Thunder) offensive against Al-Shabaab in the Almadow Mountains.
Somalia is facing a growing threat from Al-Shabaab as the country’s political elite remain mired in internal disputes. Over the past year, the terrorist group has increased deadly raids, targeted killings, abductions, and IED attacks, extending its influence into urban areas, including Mogadishu. In February 2021 alone, more than 150 incidents were reported across the country, including 32 attacks in the capital. Between January and mid-March 2021, IED attacks killed nearly 200 people and injured around 150 others, primarily targeting the Somali National Army. Experts link Al-Shabaab’s resurgence directly to Somalia’s deepening political crisis. The Farmaajo regime’s focus on suppressing political opponents has diverted resources from the fight against jihadists. Military build-ups in Gedo and Mogadishu have weakened campaigns in strategic regions such as the Shabelle Valley, allowing jihadists to regain control of villages and key points. Unless Somali leaders prioritize national security over personal power struggles and demonstrate cohesion, the war against Al-Shabaab is likely to be lost. Effective coordination, unified strategy, and renewed focus on counterterrorism operations are urgently needed to protect civilians and stabilize Somalia. Without decisive action, the Islamist insurgency will continue to grow, posing severe risks to the country’s security and governance.