Sequels are rarely as good as the original movie, and 'threequels' even less so. The ongoing Ugandan People's Defence Force (UPDF)-led and Somali National Army (SNA) offensive in Lower Shabelle is following the same tired plot as its predecessors, and as anticipated, it is playing out in a toe-curling fashion. First, there was the unsuccessful Operation Leopard Hunt-- to dislodge Al-Shabaab from several of the strategic 'bridge towns' of Lower Shabelle, namely Sabiid, Bariire, and Awdheegle, then there was Operation Badbaadho, to again, clear the jihadists from the towns. And now, over five years on Badbaadho, we are seeing the same story play out in Operation Silent Storm, albeit with a greatly demoralised and degraded SNA.
Every Thursday, Somalis can tune into Radio Andalus, an Al-Shabaab-affiliated radio station, to listen in to a jihadist commander wax lyrical about their upbringing and commitment to the cause. In one such recent interview with Al-Shabaab's appointed Banaadir Governor, Muse Abdi Arraale, he recounts his life, having grown up in Hargeisa before joining Waxda Al-Shabaab Al-Islamiyya (Islamic Youth Unity group) as a teenager and being imprisoned by the Siad Barre regime. Explicitly tying himself to groups beyond Al-Qaeda proper, such interviews represent an attempt to both position these extremist commanders in Somalia's Islamist history as well as humanise them. Increasingly tapping into discourses of Somali nationalism, Al-Shabaab's prolific propaganda output remains among the most sophisticated of any insurgent group. The London-based Tech Against Terrorism, which monitors extremist online content, assesses that Al-Shabaab is "the largest single producer of terrorist material on the internet."
Puntland's kinetic anti-Islamic State-Somalia (ISS) operations in the Al-Miskaad Mountains are nearing their conclusion. Launched in February, 'Operation Hilaac' (Lightning) has sought to degrade the key Daesh node led by Abdulkadir Mumin-- designated by the US as a global leader within the extremist group. Puntland-driven and backed by US and UAE airstrikes, the operations have proven highly successful, seizing significant ISS bases and inflicting considerable casualties on the jihadists, including the Head of Immigration and Foreign Fighters, Ahmed Musa Said, last month. With operations expected to soon begin winding down, Puntland officials have signalled a transition to stabilising the liberated territories, as well as looking ahead to the aptly-named 'Operation Onkod' (Thunder) offensive against Al-Shabaab in the Almadow Mountains.