Somaliland's regional diplomatic blitz continues. Having travelled to Djibouti and Kenya at the end of May, Somaliland President Abdirahman Mohamed Abdullahi 'Irro' is anticipated to depart for Ethiopia in the immediate future. Barring some minor stumbles in Kenya, Somaliland successfully conducted two diplomatic visits, with Irro meeting both Djiboutian President Ismail Omar Guelleh and his Kenyan counterpart, William Ruto, and securing a range of agreements. Stabilising Somaliland's relationship with neighbouring Djibouti against the backdrop of Mahmoud Youssouf having assumed the African Union Commission Chair was particularly significant. But for Somaliland, with Ethiopia remaining its preeminent trading and diplomatic partner, the stakes of such a visit are far higher, coming in the wake of a complicated few months for the long-standing Addis-Hargeisa ties.
Addis's Risky Red Sea Gambit Through The Afar In recent months, the question of 'Afar unity' has resurfaced- and this time on the initiative of the Ethiopian federal government. Today, the Cushitic, predominantly agro-pastoralist people comprise roughly two million and straddle some of the most strategic territory in the Horn of Africa, populating north-eastern Ethiopia, eastern Eritrea, and parts of Djibouti. Marginalised in all three countries where they form a minority, the Afar have long advocated for reestablishing their trifurcated communities under a single flag. Meanwhile, since the beginning of the year, Addis's gaze has returned to Assab in Eritrea as the site for its vague 'sea access' and has subsequently played upon the Afar historical and anthropological claims to the Eritrean territory on the Red Sea. Having first surfaced in late 2023, PM Abiy Ahmed, as well as senior Ethiopian generals, at the recent Prosperity Party Executive Committee meeting in mid-April again advocated for Afar unity.
On Saturday, after several rounds of secret voting in Addis Ababa, Djiboutian Foreign Minister Mohamoud Ali Youssouf was elected to serve as the next African Union (AU) Commission Chair. He defeated former Kenyan PM Raila Odinga, who dropped out in the 6th round after successive neck-and-neck ballots, with the long-serving Kenyan opposition leader ahead in the first two rounds. Following the elimination of the Madagascan candidate, however, Youssouf inched ahead, and it soon became apparent that Raila would be unable to obtain the 2/3s required of the 49 AU member states.