Gedo has long served as a useful barometer for the health of relations between Nairobi, Mogadishu, and Addis. Straddling the tri-border Mandera Triangle, the Mareehaan-dominated region of Jubaland has been a key staging post for Al-Shabaab's continued infiltration into Kenya and Ethiopia for years. And as such, both Nairobi and Addis have a vested stake in Jubaland as a security buffer zone against the jihadists, developing close ties with key political actors within Gedo and the southern Federal Member State-- which they helped co-establish in 2013. Over a decade later, with Hassan Sheikh Mohamud back at the helm in Mogadishu, the focus has returned to Gedo, as he has resorted to a well-known destabilising playbook by attempting —and failing —to wrest the Mareehaan into Villa Somalia's orbit. But amid the government's months-long campaign to destabilise Gedo, including seizing Garbahaarey and Luuq from control of Jubaland to carve out Darood tents for its rigged elections, Addis has remained silent-- until now.
The Wolf Turned Warrior Last week, Ahmed Moallim Fiqi took charge as Somalia's new Defence Minister, replacing Jibril Abdirashid, who had served just a month in post. While the reshuffle marked little more than rearranging deck chairs on the Titanic, the placing of the combative former Islamic Courts Union (ICU) leader at the helm of Somalia's flagging fight against Al-Shabaab is being hailed by many-- and not just regime supporters. Some hope that the 'hard man' of Somali politics may be able to slow the jihadists' seemingly inexorable advance towards Mogadishu. And at his official inauguration, Fiqi was in fighting form – "I know these youngsters well and I was involved in the campaign to dislodge them from Mogadishu (in 2011)," he boasted. But just a few days in, Fiqi has been caught up, again, in a nationalist diplomatic firestorm, this time by banning individuals using Taiwanese passports from entering the country.